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"People have predicted the end of America in the past and been wrong," Ferguson concedes. "But let's face it: If you're trying to borrow $9 trillion to save your financial system...and already half your public debt held by foreigners, it's not really the conduct of rising empires, is it?"
Given its massive deficits and overseas military adventures, America today is similar to the Spanish Empire in the 17th century and Britain's in the 20th, he says. "Excessive debt is usually a predictor of subsequent trouble."
Putting a finer point on it, Ferguson says America today is comparable to Britain circa 1900: a dominant empire underestimating the rise of a new power. In Britain's case back then it was Germany; in America's case today, it's China.
"When China's economy is equal in size to that of the U.S., which could come as early as 2027...it means China becomes not only a major economic competitor - it's that already, it then becomes a diplomatic competitor and a military competitor," the history professor declares.
The most obvious sign of this is China's major naval construction program, featuring next generation submarines and up to three aircraft carriers, Ferguson says. "There's no other way of interpreting this than as a challenge to the hegemony of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region."
As to analysts like Stratfor's George Friedman, who downplay China's naval ambitions, Ferguson notes British experts - including Winston Churchill - were similarly complacent about Germany at the dawn of the 20th century.
"I'm not predicting World War III but we have to recognize...China is becoming more assertive, a rival not a partner," he says, adding that China's navy doesn't have to be as large as America's to pose a problem. "They don't have to have an equally large navy, just big enough to pose a strategic threat [and] cause trouble" for the U.S. Navy.
Duh, with trillions in debt, do you need to be a harvard professor to figure that out? I knew this years ago... WWW.USDEBTCLOCK.ORG
The earning's reports coming out are really spectacular. How many listed increased revenue directly related to sales? It's like the Clunker Deal .... now that the Clunker Deal is over, auto sales took a huge dive. Won't read that in the paper because the Washington people don't want that known. See where the HBA wants to extend the 1st Time Credit? Why? Because sales are dropping like lead balloons. Hey, lefties, when is your boy going to put another Stimulus out there? So far, you boy in Washington is repeating every mistake FDR made by creating temporary jobs... You domestic autoworkers.... how many jobs did you really save after Clunkers ended and GM and Chrysler lost market share? Hey, construction workers .... did you get those promised shovel ready jobs? Did you see where the NEA is making out for voting the Democrats into Washington, but the cost of college is rising rapidly. Hey, college grads, not to worry, Habib and Tzu Chou have your jobs covered because over 90,000 guest workers were allowed into America in 2009. That's OK, Pelosi and Boxer want to raise visa quota to over 100,000. So, recent college grads, when you pay those student loans off, how much is left from that McD paycheck? Can you Supersize it? You lefties are all pitching a bitch over the "TAX CUTS" from the GOP .... Hey, what's a Clunker Rebate? What's a Home Credit???? Hey, could it be a TAX CUT in a different form???? Come on down you Lefty Loosers and tell us all how healthcare and Cap&Trade are going to make life good and get you jobs.... You people prove each and every day just how stupid you are.
Get some gold and silver while you still can. Dollar is going down long term. Whatever you do, don't hold your wealth in the form of little green pieces of paper. And remember not to counterfeit money, the federal reserve hates compretition.
Just Like Japan Kicked our A$$ with Cars and eventually brought down all the american car companies the same will happen with china taking over the world economy // luckily I'm old enough that I will be not here any more when it happens but it is gonna happen // By The way Japanese cars if you buy them they will not give you a proplem for at least 6 years as opposed to american cars that after 2 or 3 years they start breaking down // why do you think that chrysler / GM / and Ford is going down the drain
DUH, and I needed a Harvard Professor to tell me something that I've known for at least 10 years. Our economy started to collapse when we stopped manufacturing products the rest of the world wanted. We allowed our leaders to make free trade deals, that sold the blue collar worker down the river. It's sooo bad now that we are now importing wheat. ( You see there is more profit in beets that can be used to produce Ethanol ) Last I heard, our biggest export was pornography...
No big surprise here. It was foretold thousands of years before any of us were born that this would happen in the Bible. The Giant from the East with the army of 200 million is obviously China. Does any of this sound familiar to anyone?
U.S.A made so many mistakes, politically, economically, ethically, and denied correction. Empires rise and fall. History proves itself all the time. This time, the power switching process may not be as violent as it used to be, like WW I/II. It is more like a economical war without gun smoke.
History always repeats itself, If the American people don't wake up and stop asking whats in it for me and start asking whats in it for the country it will be like Rome good run but eventual failure.
Ferguson is entering territory US citizens can understand. When one only speaks about $US, US citizens can be kept clueless/confused/self-serving without any limits at all. (After all, economic law has been violated for at least 40 years, they reason. Why should it start to become important now?)
Once you sign the purchase agreement, American cars lose 25% of their value BEFORE you drive them off the lot. Foreign cars range anywhere from 5% - 12%. Unless, you are Fiat, then 25% because they are POS. Thank God, Obama saved the domestic auto industry from foreign interlopers. I hope he comes up with another genius ide like Cash for Clunkers. Let's call the next one Dollars for Dryers made in Malaysia... and pump up the results! Just in time for elections! BOOOOOO YA
We're in a ....load of trouble. Yes the Japanese have cleaned our clocks on the Auto side of things. All our wives and girlfriends buying superior Japanese cars driving US companies out of business. Bush's phoney war in Iraq did equal damage. China will continue to grow and we will be outgrown by them. And the Arabs have us by the b..ls for fuel. Good luck y'all.
MORE REPORTS COMING OUT AND SO FAR CHA-CHING, BABY! BUY BUY BUY BUY. DON'T LISTEN TO THE GLOOMY PEOPLE OUT THERE AND JUST BUY BECAUSE WE WANT DOW 11000 BY THANKSGIVING. THIS IS HISTORIC AND YOU ARE ALL PART OF IT WHEN YOU BUY. YOU PROVED TO THE GLOOMY PEOPLE OUT THERE THAT HOWEVER YOU MAKE A PROFIT IS ALL THAT MATTERS. YOU DON'T NEED JOBS. YOU DON'T NEED SALES. ALL YOU NEED IS PROFITS. BUY BUY BUY AND LET'S MAKE SOME MONEY.
Higher commodity prices are a tax on the US consumer. Hit the nail right on the head with that one. It's clear now who is directing the bailouts. It's the foreign holders of debt. When they control 50 % of the public debt, you have no choice but to bow to their desires. The sad part is that the foreign debt holders could be making decisions for the US to intentionally make this country weaker, which of course would also be at the expense of their "investment", but probably well worth it in the end in their point of view.
Well, isn't this a no brainer? Instead of continually popping out with new theories when is any new leaders of industry going to rise up and re- create new manufacturing opportunities. NEWSFLASH!!!! China outnumber us by roughly a 3 or4 to 1 ratio. IF it gets down to worse case scenario, we've grown soft and too convinced that we are still in post World War 2 glory days. We ain't gonna win. At least the Chinese punish their screw ups and executed the tainted milk people and we don't have the sense to hang a few of the financiers and supposed industry leaders? for the treason charges they so richly deserve.
All that debt to pay for 20 years and out pensions and health benefits, bail out the UAW, banks and so on and so on. It's wake up up go into the deep sleep. Oh by the way, China doesn't care about what anyone outside of China thinks about them......
Why folks buy Toyota or other Japanese cars? My 2006 Town and Country minivan has been back at the dealer 3 times: second tranny, new water pump, one front tire nearly bald the other like new, A/C problems, gauges, power window and more. Oh, and it is rusting out around the rear hatch window. WTF. $360/60 months. This thing will be paperclips and soupcans in another year. I've been had!!!
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Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 20, 2009 07:45AM EDT
Excellent analysis. Nice to see someone that gets it. My only hope is that China spurs America to competitive response, leading us to get leaner, more competitive, more productive, less debt burdened.