"People have predicted the end of America in the past and been wrong," Ferguson concedes. "But let's face it: If you're trying to borrow $9 trillion to save your financial system...and already half your public debt held by foreigners, it's not really the conduct of rising empires, is it?"
Given its massive deficits and overseas military adventures, America today is similar to the Spanish Empire in the 17th century and Britain's in the 20th, he says. "Excessive debt is usually a predictor of subsequent trouble."
Putting a finer point on it, Ferguson says America today is comparable to Britain circa 1900: a dominant empire underestimating the rise of a new power. In Britain's case back then it was Germany; in America's case today, it's China.
"When China's economy is equal in size to that of the U.S., which could come as early as 2027...it means China becomes not only a major economic competitor - it's that already, it then becomes a diplomatic competitor and a military competitor," the history professor declares.
The most obvious sign of this is China's major naval construction program, featuring next generation submarines and up to three aircraft carriers, Ferguson says. "There's no other way of interpreting this than as a challenge to the hegemony of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region."
As to analysts like Stratfor's George Friedman, who downplay China's naval ambitions, Ferguson notes British experts - including Winston Churchill - were similarly complacent about Germany at the dawn of the 20th century.
"I'm not predicting World War III but we have to recognize...China is becoming more assertive, a rival not a partner," he says, adding that China's navy doesn't have to be as large as America's to pose a problem. "They don't have to have an equally large navy, just big enough to pose a strategic threat [and] cause trouble" for the U.S. Navy.
Face it people; China is not our friend! They take advantage of us at every turn. We buy the cheap Chinese made goods almost without tariffs, while they and everyone else dump tariffs on our goods in some places at 60% mark up. We wonder where the trade deficit comes from. They buy an unfinished aircraft carrier from east Europe for a few million under the pretext of making a floating hotel or something, and really make a warship. The Chinese have improved their ballistic missile technology with the help of the Russians and by stealing it from us. They stole technology that will perfect their Nuclear ICBMs that are pointed at us! They are perfecting their DF-21D missiles that can hit a moving target. Our "friends" have their missiles pointed at our cities and aircraft carriers. They have "remote sensing" satellites moving in formation between us and them across the pacific to direct the missiles right down onto our carriers. How many Americans are on 1 Carrier? Almost as many as we have lost in both wars maybe? There aircraft carriers are inferior to ours, but they don’t need them to be. They are not to get here, but to confront us there. They just need to use a few hundred million worth of missiles to sink a $10 billion carrier. They will continue to steal from us and we will continue to turn a blind eye. They hate us, but love our money. They will continue just as they are as long as they can. Then they will make their move. They can field a 200 million man army. In the Korean War they were coming at us practically with muskets. They learned their lesson, and even said that it may take 100 years, but they will not make the same mistake again. They have stolen our best technology. Their weapons will be as advanced or more so than ours. We will decimate our military. We will mothball our carriers. They are increasing and modernizing theirs. They will move on Taiwan Korea and Japan. (Don’t think for a second they forgot about what Japan did) We will try and intervene to help our allies. They will tell us to go to hell as they have been doing a lot lately. We’ll send carriers. They will tell us to back off, and we will go in flexing our muscles. They will send DF-21Ds. We will lose the carriers with their crews. We can’t swallow 6000 loses over 8 years. What will we do when it is 10000 in one day? Also to get more carriers there we will have to pass through the Panama canal right? Guess who is operating it? We can’t threaten them with nukes. They have them to, with our missile tech.
Soon they won’t need our money. We are heading for a new cold war. It is time we stop treating them as friends and start treating them as the enemies they are.
The Chinese people, the Chinese govt., and all the Asian cultures have held the same F'ing position for EVER....They believe that the Sino population (culture) is going to rule the World. They always have, and always will believe this as a people. Open your eyes, because ever so slowly, yet ever so surely, they are moving it all into place. They will never need more than 10 Carriers (actually 6 is all that’s needed) to totally rule their part of the World. (which is all they need to do, the rest of the World would beg them for their exports to stay complacent in/at home.....
If there will be a war with China it will be our fault. China never will start war with US. Its us who will start one!!!!
All the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Europe (i.e. the Westrn civilizations) have to do is slap some heavy tarriffs on all the garbage that China is exporting into their countries This in turn will cause China's fragile dream of becoming a dominant power (i.e superpower to dissapear overnight). It will destroy China both economically and politically. I know someone on this post is going to say that if we impose tarriffs, China will dump their U.S. bonds. If they do this they will only be hurting themselves (i.e. they will lose large amounts of money on their investment). China is a very fragile country. It whole economy depends on exporting goods. If this stops all of the economic advancements and political stability would disapear. The worst case scenario for the U.S if China was to dump all of their U.S. bonds U.S. is that the dollar would drop (perhaps to half its current value). The benefit of that would be that many of the U.S. jobs that have been exported to China will return to U.S. soil. As for China, they will be in economic ruin and face political collapse. So who is at greater risk China or the U.S.?
Since the invention of nuclear weapon, there have been no direct collision between the superpowers or that will be the end of world. Thus, mind the economy is most important especially during this Pan-North-Atlantic-Debt Crisis. There will be a better world tomorrow.
Chinese will eventually own the U.S.. Americans will only be able to shine chinese shoes, or mop floors, or be killed off if they don't bow to their new masters. Your Grand kids will be working in the fields for Chinese master, if not a slave in other capacity.
In 1800's California, Americans did this to the chinese, not allowing them to vote, and own property, they were servants to the white man and the women sold off.
It's China's turn now, payback time for Americans. Chinas time to rule.
There can be a war between US and China when both economies reach the same level. Of course, one has to look into other powers in that region - Korea, Japan, and India. Will they side with US or China? I doubt India will side with China? Not sure with US too. Japan and Korea may initially stay with US - but if US cannot defend them, they may eventually fall to China. Will Guam become the next Pearl Harbor?
The American see China as sub-human or people of color same as the China see America and Europeans as sub-human and people of color as the 'white color ' if not otherwise should be transparancy sub-human too...
China dosen't have to go to war with us. They've already beaten us.
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