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John Mauldin: Tax Hikes Will Kill the 'Recovery', Which Isn't Real Anyway

Posted Oct 21, 2009 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession
The economic recovery currently underway is a statistical mirage, based on easy year-over-year comparisons and inventory rebuilding, John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Securities, tells Henry in the accompanying video.

The unemployment rate is closer to 12% when you include people who've been dropped from the survey and the "underemployment" rate - people working part-time vs. full time - is 17% to 18%, "and rising," Mauldin says. "That doesn't feel like recovery."

Mauldin, who writes the popular Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter, predicts the U.S. economy will be back in recession next year because of higher taxes, both new and with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

"The Obama administration [and] the Democrats aren't going to be able to help themselves," he says. "The deficits are going to be running so high they'll feel - politically -- the need to do something. The way they want to solve it -- instead of cutting spending is to increase the revenue. That's going to suck a lot of air out of the room."

As for the long-term, Mauldin worries America could repeat Japan's experience of a lost decade (or two), if not the Great Depression itself, citing the risk of policy errors such as trying to solve a debt crisis by issuing more debt.

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283 Comments

thomasromancer
thomasromancer - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:35AM EDT

There is nothing real about this recovery. It is totally built upon government influx of funds into the markets. Not to mention Uncle Sam is borrowing money from other countries to make us feel like all is well. That practice is going to end soon enough.

Michael
Michael - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:46AM EDT

Nothing is appealing and sooner or later we will have to bite the proverbial bullet or continue to ignore it. The latter is the American way.

H-man
H-man - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:47AM EDT

AMEN to thomasromancer comments! The so called "green shoots" will wither as soon as the government watering hole eventually dries up.

Jim
Jim - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:47AM EDT

The policies pursued by this administration are no different than they would be if a Republican administration were in office. Many view this as a GOP vs. a Democrat thing. It is not. Both administrations receive the same advice which is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of economics and our money system. These problems WILL NOT be resolved until the aforementioned is understood. This is unfortunate because it need not be this way. Read more at http://www.TheSentinel.biz.

robert
robert - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:55AM EDT

I don't have confidence in this recovery. I'm holding onto "cash".

tom
tom - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:58AM EDT

We already had a lost decade with the previous administration. Why should the Obama administration be any different?

RobertS
RobertS - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:58AM EDT

I work, I save, I buy something. When I lose my job I won't work, I won't save, and I won't buy anything more than the basic necessities. Anybody else on this plan?

jes
jes - Wednesday October 21, 2009 07:59AM EDT

i tend to agree very strongly with Mr. Mauldin.

dfw222222
dfw222222 - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:00AM EDT

This show has been so negative for over 1.5 years now... the economic world is always coming to an end.... these guys or their management MUST be shorts ....I can not believe how negative they always are!!! I am up 100-250% on my investments (stocks) this year while they continue to bash economy! I refused to listen to their doom and gloom last Nov. and not I am way up....I will sell in Feb 2010, not before. We will get another large surge upward next Q after Christmas spending... if you listen to these guys you already missed out on first rally and likely will miss out on next Q rally also!!!

DrD
DrD - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:05AM EDT

It's funny watching people try to combine two different goals in the same sentence. The global elite are accomplishing their goal of redistributing global wealth and increasing central control along the way. They are successfully using double speak and fiat money to confuse the slaves along the way. In the end, a small group of men will control the resources, including human resources (numbered slaves) of the entire planet.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:07AM EDT

If the 'recovery' isn't real what is to stop "them" from faking a boom post tax hike. It is all a con game anyway. Recovery now, Boom time tomorrow in the matrix.

John
John - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:08AM EDT

Birds fly, fish swim, and liberal idiots like Obama, Reid, and Pelosi run up huge deficits to buy votes from the stupid, lazy, and irresponsible.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:08AM EDT

Interesting article. I read an article in the local newspaper saying how the region unemployment actuall dropped from 10.8% to 10.1% from September to October. The editor further propagandized the masses by quoting much of the recent Wall Street successes as further indication of great things coming. When studying the employment picture, the drop was FACTUALLY attributed to people just giving up trying to find work and rolling off the dole.The Wall Street estimates are all laced with much merriment and hubris for the future, whereas the present shows something quite different. Governmental programs designed to stimulate have enriched foreign auto companies, Wall Street sharks, Crooked Banks and more politicians than are revealed, or exposed. Posters have bragged about their huge profits since March which brings them back to 60% of where they started... and they are now getting ready to ride the wave to even greater wealth. You still haven't figured out that jobless recoveries are not recoveries. You still need to deal with jobs or the Federal Debt grows. Regardless of what you want to believe, that is not being addressed. If anything, the government is responding very slowly to infusing money into the small business environment. What is incredulous is the fact that this administration is willing to allow the suffering of the middleclass to the extent it has. These are the people that voted these bums into office and these bums literally shit in a bag and told them it's lunch. Surprisingly, the people accepted it?? People have been out of work for a long time and all this administration knows how to do is extend benefits. Extend benefits and jobs go offshore and guest workers are coming to this country in huge numbers. The NEA gets stimulus funds to further education while college tuition goes up across the country?? A thank you to the NEA for the support maybe? Recent college grads with huge debts are finding the job market bare as the guest workers come in and take their jobs. The college grads are another group strongly supporting this administration and no one considers refinancing those student loans, while deadbeat subprimers get all of Barney Franks' support. Yeah, let's all worry about the Federal debt, healthcare, Cap&Trade, banks, and Wall Street. The actual heartbeat of America, the people that put this administration in office, is getting tossed aside as Wall Street and the Banks make huge amounts of money from the sheeple... I now understand why people say never underestimate the stupidity of the American voting public.

steve
steve - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:08AM EDT

The 'big' banks are too large to fail. bush's first recession was Clinton's fault and his second was Obama's fault (I'm still trying to wrap my head around fox's reasoning for that one). In the spring when the economy was still heading into the tank, it was Obama's fault for increasing the debt, not that 95% of the stimulus money had not made it into the proper hands. This summer when the economy started to show signs of life, Obama's stimilus money had nothing to do with the recovery. Now, when most agree that there is recovery, the nay sayers spout out that 'There's no recovery' or 'This is just a false stasrt. I've even seen the sign that fox has said this is really bush's recovery. Get real people. You must do pretty crappy in your fantasy football leagues with comments such as these.

Irvine Developer
Irvine Developer - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:11AM EDT

the double dip is not an ice cream cone, and it is coming.... unemployment alone will cause this, not to mention....Housing, Debt, Govt Debt, Crashing dollar, Commercial Real Estate Bubble, over exuberance and risk taking on wall street.

Truth Teller
Truth Teller - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:12AM EDT

Perhaps when taxes are re-balanced from the rich mans giveaway ushered in by the Bush administration, there will be money available for the the investments in infra-structure, education, health care and evnironmental science that is necessary for long-term health. As the government makes data-driven, fact-based, rather than faith-based decisions, real solutions to problems emerge, and a peaceful world is much cheaper to live in than a world at war. Advances in negotiations in Iran, North Korea and other countries will allow us to spend more of that exported money and expertise at home, and the long term liabilities caused by wounded and mentally wounded soldiers will finally stop putting a future drag on the system. Finally we can strongly regulate the ridiculous and totally non-productive hyper profiteering on Wall Street and in the Health Insurance Industry, in which we reward paper shuffling and shell games over actual production of goods or provision of services. If we do these things, as I believe the current administration hopes to do. We will have a pretty long-term picture and the type of healthy economy necessary to relieve the debt built up by years of a country being run by ideology rather than fact.

Morgan
Morgan - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:15AM EDT

I agree with Mr. Mauldin. The Bailout is a small recovery (bubble) that the government has created to slow the markets downward trend. Don't be fooled, bad debt is bad debt. It doesn't go away easily like we would like to believe without the economy feeling the pain and going through the corrective movements that will eventually bring us back to a prosperous economy. But first thing is first. Although the banking industry and government would like you to think , and has been taught for the last 100 years, that Debt is the only way to grow the economy, it is BS. Growth through debt financing allows banks to make easy money and HUGE margins and Government to give "good" reasons to tax the H--LL out of Americans when it all falls apart. Cause you know, we gotta save the economy through big bailouts after the banks make their fortunes. Big banks win in this game either way. And taxation is not only good for the big banks but it is good for big government!

Morgan
Morgan - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:17AM EDT

I agree with Mr. Mauldin. The Bailout is a small recovery (bubble) that the government has created to slow the markets downward trend. Don't be fooled, bad debt is bad debt. It doesn't go away easily like we would like to believe without the economy feeling the pain and going through the corrective movements that will eventually bring us back to a prosperous economy. But first thing is first. Although the banking industry and government would like you to think , and has been taught for the last 100 years, that Debt is the only way to grow the economy, it is BS. Growth through debt financing allows banks to make easy money and HUGE margins and Government to give "good" reasons to tax the H--LL out of Americans when it all falls apart. Cause you know, we gotta save the economy through big bailouts after the banks make their fortunes. Big banks win in this game either way. And taxation is not only good for the big banks but it is good for big government!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:17AM EDT

The UK is the culprit that's been buying more of our debt this year - not the Chinese as most think. That broke FUBAR nation is trying to play the role of the cavalry? That's the plan!?

belb
belb - Wednesday October 21, 2009 08:19AM EDT

So far, 9 people have commented and 8 of them are bearish. That tells you all you need to know.

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