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Policymakers in "Denial" About the Banks, Carmen Reinhart Says

Posted Oct 26, 2009 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Banking
In "This Time Is Different," economic professors Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard) and Carmen Reinhart (Maryland) examine eight centuries of financial crises, demonstrating how the credit crunch of 2008 wasn't so unique, after all. That's the good news.

The bad news is Prof. Reinhart believes the current environment most closely resembles the Great Depression, specifically because of the global nature of the downturn and its severity. To keep the nascent recovery alive and avoid a similarly prolonged economic malaise, policymakers must refrain from "declaring victory prematurely" and reign in the stimulus too soon, says the former IMF economist. "That's a real danger here."

As to the question of whether policymakers really have learned the lessons of financial history, Reinhart gave a two-part answer:

  • Monetary policy: She gives high marks to Ben Bernanke's Fed for acting aggressively in responding to the crisis - at least after Bear Stearns' collapse in March 2008. (As an aside, Reinhart was Bear's chief economist in 1985-1986.)
  • Bank restructuring: Here, Reinhart gives policymakers "low marks" for failing to deal head on with toxic assets. There's "a lot of denial" in the approach to the banks, she says, seeing comparisons to Japan's post-bubble policies of delaying write-downs, which created zombie banks. "I'm not seeing a great deal of learning," the professor says, suggesting the policy response recalls Einstein's definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.

59 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 26, 2009 07:46AM EDT

Doesn't matter anyway. You should be worried about the collapse of the dollar. Wait until China stops buying our treasuries. Better get some gold and a gun. Revolution baby! It is coming!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 26, 2009 07:49AM EDT

we're all doomed

- Monday October 26, 2009 07:52AM EDT

bernanke should be strung up and tarred and feathered Biggest US TRAITOR since Benedict Arnold

- Monday October 26, 2009 07:53AM EDT

Rig The Balance Sheets // The banks arein so much doo doo still all that toxic crap is still there and being hidden // they declare they are making a profit Yes by hidding all the toxic waste and there is a lot more toxic waste comming their way with aaaaaaa lot more foreclosures coming

- Monday October 26, 2009 07:54AM EDT

the "lessen to be learned " is to realize that both the great depression and this current recession are orchestrated events on behalf of the privately owned fed and that things are proceeding as planned by these international banking elites.So we much put more pressure on Congress to audit the Fed. and uncover the 700 Bil dollar money that is now "lost".

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 26, 2009 07:56AM EDT

The undeniable truth of the matter is corporate earnings are still predominately based upon cost-cutting and not on sales. Regardless of what many of you want to believe, that does not indicate health in the economy, only economic information manipulation. The euphoria many of you are experiencing is directly related to someone/thing pumping huge sums of money into the market to keep the market at a certain level. The money is brought into the market to prevent triple digit slides and prevent successive days in a row of downside trading. Take the time to track it because it is all there for you and it takes very little time out of your busy day. There are hughe problems with real estate and financials and real estate and financials seem to get the best results? Coincidence? Sure, you all believe wat you want.... One of the biggest indicators of any is transportation, primarily railroads. Railroads move the goods and products across the country. Railroads took a shit last week and are not forecasting happiness next quarter. But, analysts across the country say things are better???? Oil is going up steadily because the dollar is getting kept down. I wonder where George Soros is in all of this? Retail sales analysts have already said the holidays are going to be crap. When the holidays are crap, watch stocks go up? UP? Yes, UP. The analysts will tell you the bad numbers were factored into the market... It's called bullshit, but as long as many of you believe you are making money, the beat goes on.

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:00AM EDT

TOXIC Assets? I thought they changed the name and Paulson took them with him when he road off into the sunset with the $Billions he removed from the public/taxpayers.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 26, 2009 08:02AM EDT

Have a beer, chill, its all good. Save more $ and produce in the US and reduce trade deficit, reduce taxes.

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:02AM EDT

What a resume item: Bear Stearn's Chief Economist.

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:05AM EDT

Especially Dodd & Barney who were at the root of the cause of this crisis plus Graham should good to jail for allowing the extreme banking/mortgage loan leverage... No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 26, 2009 08:06AM EDT

You are damned right we are all doomed. In 2008, the Congressional Approval rating was in the middle 20 percentile. In 2008, you bleeding hearts were going to show the world what Hope and Change means ... you put 90% of the SAME politicians back into office and replaced a few Republicans with Democrats. Congressional Approval rating is now 30%. Geeeeeeee Whiz are you people sharp! We now having rising unemployment, rising prices, rising government spending, rising foreclosures, rising jobs going overseas... but your wages are going down... and many of you are all excited about our government???? Hell, you will make up any story to prove your excuse. You still haven't figured it out, have you dirt-dwellers? In a couple of months, it will be too late and you will be dirt-dwellers forever.... But, it appears you like being dirt-dwellers. You do nothing to help yourself and you turn to the same government that turned you into dirt-dwellers. The people telling you dirt-dwellers have a 31% approval rating and they are herding you around like the worthless dirt-dwellers that you are. And you like it!!! You actually like it..... Keep telling yourself there is nothing you can do ... keep telling yourself there is nothing you can do ..... keep telling yourself there is nothing you can do.....

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:11AM EDT

Wall St. and Big Money own and control the members of Congress. The people that have been Senators and Congressmen/women for decades need to go as they caused the crisis and are now covering their trail. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:13AM EDT

I would love to see a candid discussion of trickle-up VS trickle-down. I see it like this: In good times..a balance. 50/50. Trickle-up generates a steady and sure supply of both economic activity and tax revenues. A lower income person shops for more necessities and some fun things...they do not save a lot or invest in long term income tools. Trickle-down? It is always a bit sketchy. For one thing...they travel overseas, invest overseas..and go into the market. Hmm..no, the market no longer is a vehicle for the efficient distribution of resources, it's mostly a gambling casino. And that theory that tax-cuts bring about prosperity to us all is bunk. It's just a: picking the rich over the poor (Those who donate to political decision makers, if you will....), and b: it is going to folks who pay very little taxes for the same reasons. And where's the discussion in this segment about commercial real estate, derivatives, those still around toxit assetts, the effects o those who have stopped looking for jobs...or who are about to lose their homes? We have to look beyond the symptoms, and look at the problem: a corrupt congress and a Harvard crowd disconnected to their responsibilities at the executive levels of the White House... It takes real guts to go there on TV I know...but if not you two guys, then who?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 26, 2009 08:13AM EDT

Why do people always use the stock market as a measure of the economy?....There is NO correlation between the two. The stock market attempts to predict the economy a year from now, and with very little success historically...

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:20AM EDT

The government is trying to divert our attention from the crisis they caused by pushing mandatory health insurance and expanding the wars. They are also viewing your healthcare dollars as a means to extract more money from the public by calling it insurance bill from the government instead of a new tax just like they do with the many hidden taxes we now pay. They need to fix the existing insurance companies tactics not form a new government insurance tax. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 26, 2009 08:20AM EDT

Do any of the contributors above read and write standard English?Wouldn't you have a little more respect for their economic wisdom if they were at least literate?

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:34AM EDT

More doom and gloom by Tech Pricker. When is the last time these tech pricks had anybody positive on.

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:37AM EDT

The stock market is all manipulated,one big Ponzi Scheme.If you want to make some money now is the time to short the market.

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:41AM EDT

This is a great book and relevant to today. I'm going to get it, thanks Tech Ticker. Excellent point that this time it's not different. I was of that opinion already, but this book "nails it". Of course I disagree with the monetary response, b/c we need to get rid of the PRIVATE Federal Reserve, the cause of this Second Great Depression, and "inflating" away as a cure hurts most people, except the rich and small minority that invest in financial assets. She is from the IMF, so I'm not surprised she favored the monetary response.

- Monday October 26, 2009 08:46AM EDT

Good Morning Gang! Good Morning America! Happy Monday! The notion that "Zombie Banks" are afloat is a very rational conclusion. Imagine re floating the Titanic but no one can board the ship! The malls and department stores revive for a day or two when the government passes out stimulus checks. More often than not, folks are paying down their debt. The concept that the crisis is over for many is anything but the truth. The real economy is beholding to those who can think for themselves. The information age is upon those who can only act wisely and precipitously. Some folks just don't know what to believe, and they are mostly likely lost beneath the waves. Some will be saved, some could care less, and some are just fine. This is life isn't folks? Have a great day! Later...smiles...God save us all...

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