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Value Investing Guru Joel Greenblatt Sees Shift to "High Quality" Stocks

Posted Oct 28, 2009 09:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and that's especially true for value investors. True value investors are typically attracted to stocks that most other investors wouldn't touch.

In his 2005 best-seller, "The Little Book that Beats the Market," money manager Joel Greenblatt described his "magic formula" for picking stocks: a combination of high return on capital and low valuations, based on the past year's earnings.

"What you'll find is that [the formula] comes up with companies people always think there's a problem with - that's why you have to buy a basket of 20 or 30," says Greenblatt, co-founder of Formula Investing and managing partner of Gotham Capital.

Generally speaking, Greenblatt says the value today is predominantly in "higher quality business that didn't get hurt as badly in the recession" vs. the low-quality names like AIG and Fannie Mae which led the rally off the March lows.

Among the "beaten up stocks" currently ranked highly by Greenblatt's are construction companies, select retailers and McGraw-Hill.

The parent of Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill shares have been battered - along with top rival Moody's - since the bursting of the subprime bubble amid fears the firms' will be exposed to additional legal liability, or simply less robust profits going forward.

But McGraw-Hill trades with a trailing P/E below 13 and boasts return on capital above 22% for the past five years.

In sum, it's the kind of name a value investor willing to look beyond the headline risk can love.

18 Comments

Tex
Tex - Wednesday October 28, 2009 09:34AM EDT

I don't like MHP for two reasons: I think S&P is going to be more regulated and I think that book publishing in the long term will be replaced by electronic media. As to investing in 20 - 30 stocks, it will take the average long term investor 10 or more years to build that kind of portfolio with many missteps; a 100K investment minimal. I don't think there is anything new in this guys approach and just looking at last years earnings (2009 for example) would totally mislead an individual.

Terry
Terry - Wednesday October 28, 2009 09:35AM EDT

22% returns with S&P or Moodys it's probably all about accounting manipulation. Government/Banking rating agencies. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 28, 2009 09:45AM EDT

wow... everyone doesn't know the answer for all these companies... very very interesting..... hmm? promoting your 2005 book because?

Helga
Helga - Wednesday October 28, 2009 09:55AM EDT

I wish I could recommend some of the comments. Some of you people are brilliant.

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Wednesday October 28, 2009 09:59AM EDT

Good Morning Gang! Happy Wednesday! Jesus loves all the children of the world! Investing for peace of mind requires market wise wisdom. Got wisdom? I hope so...if not, get some or let someone else make the decisions for you. Quite frankly, true prosperity has little to do with the market place. The origin of intelligence comes from having God in mind. None the less, even a fool can make a decent buck or too picking stocks. I like large caps and index funds, and mutual funds with little or no heavy load. I have only pennies to spare, but I am rich beyond compare! God bless Wall St. Jesus loves you! later friends...smiles....

holy smokes
holy smokes - Wednesday October 28, 2009 10:09AM EDT

YFU post @ 9:48- Where are the patriots? My guess is they are over at Starbucks, you know- I will be a patriot after my coffee.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 28, 2009 10:33AM EDT

85 BLN heist of WAMU conducted by corporate thug aka Jamie Demon and Corrupt / inept regulator Sheila Bear and OTS chief JOhn Reich of OTS to defraud millions of Wamu investors!!! A well capitalized bank was a victim of corruption and deceit. 300+ BLN deposits 20+ bln valued Credit card business 10+ bln of commercial lending business Trillions of $ Mtg servicing rights and business 3000+ branch network and other real estate assets were stolen from WAMU Investors by a coordinated fraud by Treasury/FDIC/OTS and the greatest wallstreet Crook and Thief JAMIE DEMON. Millions of shareholders life savings were lost, children's education were ruined and retirement incomes evaporated by their fraudualent conveyance!!! This is the largest heist in human history conducted by the greatest theif of WALL STREET JAMIE DEMON!!!

Cathy S
Cathy S - Wednesday October 28, 2009 10:40AM EDT

Actually...YFU, I'm ready. That's the ONLY thing that''s going to bring us "change we can believe in."

Cathy S
Cathy S - Wednesday October 28, 2009 10:49AM EDT

Actually YFU, I'm ready. That's the only way we're gonna get "change we can believe in."

Daniel
Daniel - Wednesday October 28, 2009 10:58AM EDT

There is some truth about the physical production of textbooks but MH is moving into the distribution of ebooks. Instead of large back packs students will soon be carrying their textbooks on their laptops. There should also be appreciable saving in production, shipping and warehousing costs.

Len T
Len T - Wednesday October 28, 2009 11:28AM EDT

What guest on Tech Ticker has ever said to by low quality stocks? Its just hard to believe someone who relies on a magic formula.

Cathy S
Cathy S - Wednesday October 28, 2009 11:48AM EDT

Think about this...Amazon invested heavily in Kindle, and they definitely know what they're doing. Ebooks are taking over. There are 200,000 books published each year, not counting the self-published ones. The average book only sells 1,000 copies. I wonder who's reading them since only a small percentage of the population reads books. That's been proven over and over again. That's why the dumbing down of America continues. :)

JackT
JackT - Wednesday October 28, 2009 11:55AM EDT

It's a little something I like to do before I go to bed at night. Empty my wallet in a mason jar and bury it in the back yard. For only Benjies a day your wife is secure in knowing your benefits can never be canceled. You owe it to your family-Colonial Penn shovels.

Andy
Andy - Wednesday October 28, 2009 12:59PM EDT

Indeed, there are a lot of companies that are great values. They do not get the headline stories that JPM, GM, Goldman Sachs get, but these companies with strong fundamentals have been unjustly sold off along with the troubled companies. Over time, companies with strong cash flow and clean balance sheets will perform very well. I'd like to thank Greenblatt for focusing us again on what matters.

MichaelL
MichaelL - Wednesday October 28, 2009 01:22PM EDT

I read the book. It should be in every home. It is full of horse sense. Currently the magicinvestingformula is free and you can see the universe of stocks. I tried it for two years and was happy, but I don't feel comfortable owning individual stocks, now I am in ETF's. I think the system is very useful, if you are patient. Trading costs need to be kept low, I also worked with a broker to oversee what companies he thought might had better future potential. I didn't have enough confidence just randomly picking companies and suggested by Greenblatt. Greenblatt is a very clever money guy and has also written some great books on other nonconventional investing strategies. He is an authentic successful hedge fund guy.

Scott
Scott - Wednesday October 28, 2009 01:27PM EDT

Another scum bag criminal looking to make their mortagage payment off america... or what was once america. Guy talks allot but doesn't say much... typical Hopefully all the crooks will be delt with the FAMILY way.

marc
marc - Wednesday October 28, 2009 01:34PM EDT

Where are the patiots?Busy getting their rights taken away and being brainwashed into gayness and sheeple mindsets.We should have risen up after the first wallstreet bailout.But you know there are over 1 million american troops stationed in the u.s.

Stephen
Stephen - Wednesday October 28, 2009 02:13PM EDT

Pick stocks of American companies that make something tangible that actually has value - Alcoa (AA), Mosaic (MOS) or U.S. Gypsum (USG). Part of the problem with America's economy is that no one makes anything of any tangible value any more. These financial services companies like Goldman Sachs just shuffle paper around. They don't PRODUCE anything! When push comes to shove in the future, the survivors will be those who actually create wealth by manufacturing, mining or producing food. Dump the companies that create nothing!

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