Tuesday, December 22, 2009, 12:51AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 8 hours and 39 minutes.

"Correction in Oil" Coming, Says U.S. Global's Frank Holmes

Posted Oct 30, 2009 12:30pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Even with Friday's dip, both oil and retail gasoline prices are near their highs of the year. The good news is energy prices typically peak around this time of year amid buying in anticipation of winter heating season.

"Odds favor we'll get a correction in oil," says Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors, which has about $2.5 billion of assets under management, including the Global Resources Fund. "Usually when it's coldest in NY is when oil prices are actually making their bottom."

That's good news for consumers in the near term, but long-term "there's a real [trend] toward stronger oil prices," Holmes says, citing the high correlation between money supply growth and crude prices. With the Fed's foot on the monetary gas pedal and other central bankers also keeping the printing presses on overdrive, most notably in China.

That should give oil an upside basis but Holmes believes oil will likely trade in the $60-$85 range for the foreseeable future, given the offsetting factors of high inventories and rising costs of production.

Holmes favorite pick in the sector right now is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust, which sports a 7% dividend yield, thus providing investors a hedge against falling energy prices.

Looking beyond oil (or gold, which we discuss in another segment), Holmes is particularly keen on copper and cites Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold as the best way to get exposure to bull markets in both copper and gold.

120 Comments

- Friday October 30, 2009 12:41PM EDT

The FED should have out sourced the printing of all those dollars at least then we can save some money on the printing of money. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

- Friday October 30, 2009 12:42PM EDT

Alright, this is great. All this Wall Street speculation, especially in commodities, is being done at the expense of the common citizen. Noticed lately that a company's stock value increases when it lays off people, and not when additional workers are hired? Noticed that most huge stock gains occur due to merger and acquisition activity, when companies are bought out and half the workers are canned, or the companies are bought to be shut in order to eliminate competition. Wall Street's advances are inverse to the condition of the US citizenry as a whole.

- Friday October 30, 2009 12:43PM EDT

What happened to Ike?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 12:44PM EDT

Sell!

- Friday October 30, 2009 12:45PM EDT

The market up 200 yesterday on news that GDP rose 3.3% in quarter. Today it will be down 200 on reality that government numbers are phony to sway election. And we worry about other countries have fair elections. Obamocorn.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 12:50PM EDT

Prior to the crash, the economy was pumped up with a record amount of hot air. All that hot air had to go somewhere when the bubble popped, energy is never lost, it just transfers. Some of it flowed into commodities and gold. Bankers quickly found a new way to make lots of money while investors are still stuck on stupid.

- Friday October 30, 2009 12:53PM EDT

Frank is a great guest. He really makes for a strong argument to diversify your portfolio with commodities and precious metals. I thank TT for getting some market wise views from the likes of Frank! Good job Aaron and the gang for shifting away from the doom glooms...You know who you are...Limbaugh and Beck are fanatical crackpot conservatives calling for revolution. Beck should write another book and host some more wacky talk radio debates...just give us a break! (Beck sells his books) Thanks...Later....smiles...inciting the weakened minds of talk radio heads all over the world...Boo! Laughs!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 12:53PM EDT

Yesterday, everything's gonna be alright! Today, gloom and doom! Like antelope at a watering hole....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 12:54PM EDT

Between coal, oil, natural gas, uranium and other small energy supplies plus improving conservation there is no energy crisis for at least 50 years. Only a growing Socialist crisis. End Obamanation socialism, end the problems. Discover true conservatism!!

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:02PM EDT

Geez that money supply graph is ugly.

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:10PM EDT

franck s - Friday October 30, 2009 12:42PM EDT Alright, this is great. All this Wall Street speculation, especially in commodities.... ---------------------------------------------- Franck, delete "Wall Street", add "world economies". It's been Asian tiger economies, plus certain middle east and euro nations, far, far more than Wall St. I'm not really disagreeing with your sentiment (mind you, I've never really expected Wall St to act otherwise), but we in the US don't control commodity prices. Well, (laugh), we do...when our dollar drops, they go up in price...hence the talk of why the world no longer wants US dollar price-basing.

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:10PM EDT

Get the big banks to run up oil to $8,000.00 dollars a barrel. Go for it you greedy f*cking bankers. I can't wait for the entire frigging economy and dollar to collapse because of Wall Street and the banks greed. ........................................................................................ (www.usdebtclock.org) $140,000,000,000,000.00 Trillion dollars of US debt divided by 153,000,000 million working americans equals $910,000.00 thousand dollars that each of us owe for this debt. We are already bankrupt and the currency will collapse with hyperinflation because of it................................................................................... Run the oil up....finish the consumer off. Then when the malls are empty....the banks can eat all their losses from the defaults on these commercial real estate loans............................................................ Keep sending all the money overseas to be loaned to third world countries on Carry Trades. The United States businesses don't need any cash to survive. Keep rewarding the greedy f*ckers on Wall Street. ..................................................................................................... You'll be lucky if this crap doesn't end up with people rioting in the streets in the end.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 01:10PM EDT

This is nothing more than experts trying to predict the future. they seat there and try to look as prophets. The reality is people are scared, holding to whatever savings we have left making sure Uncle Sam does not take what we still have. Suppy and demand works even in socialist countries, because when we have too much of something the 99 cents is the store where we can find them. Darn it, Just be fruitful and increase in number.

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:13PM EDT

Most of the estimates I hear from friends in the oil industry expect a barrel of oil to be $65-70/barrel in a few months. That means about $2.75-$3.00 at the pump. Peak oil was gone in the US in 1970 and it is almost gone in the Arab countries. The Arabs claim they can no longer make a profit on oil under $75/barrel. Plenty of oil---its buried deep.

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:15PM EDT

I WOULD HATE TO BE IN THIS MARKET ON MONDAY! YIKES!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 01:16PM EDT

just remember when you are feeling down and blue... there is one thing you can do.... sing..... barack hussein obama mmm mmm mmm... remember, when barack hussein obama is golfing this weekend, think what YOU can do to help him....... mmm mmm mmm...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 01:18PM EDT

yes inventories are high but very few are now drilling for gas,rigs are down 90% in western canada,afraid winters aren't getting that warm so inventories will drop. Hey poster slagging Beck, FOX is one of the few msm that are asking any tough questions on Obama's admin, the rest are fellow Obama zombie supporters. In a year will you still be so critical when your country is on the cusp of losing the respect of eastern europe. And the Taliban and AlQuida are even more bolder because of your Mr. Dithers lame leadership, and inability to make tough decisions,

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:19PM EDT

We will always need oil for plastics and other chemicals. Oil companies are now getting in to the alternative fuel markets and they will be profitable for a long time to come. If their stock prices go down, I think they would be a good buy

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:21PM EDT

cling2fear - Friday October 30, 2009 12:58PM EDT After reading your posts I vomit! Laughs! Grab a mop and clean up kid! Funny...BOO!

- Friday October 30, 2009 01:22PM EDT

REGULATE OIL NOW! Before its too late and the WORLD goes bankrupt.

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.