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Cheap Money Creates "Wonderful Opportunity" for U.S. Real Estate, Says Jeff Matthews

Posted Nov 04, 2009 01:30pm EST by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession, Housing

Will stocks continue to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of the financial crisis? To be honest, your guess is as good as anyone else's. 

What is clear: low interest rates around the world seem to be fueling another asset bubble driven by Asian investors, as The Wall Street Journal reports.

Jeff Matthews, founder of hedge fund Ram Partners, says "cheap dollars are going to attract more money" which means U.S. "real estate is a wonderful opportunity."

Unlike the housing bears, Matthews isn't too concerned about the "shadow inventory" of homes for sale and believes there's more-than ample demand for housing, especially with construction remaining at such relatively low levels. 

Turning back to the stock market, Matthews says many stock values have gone from deal of the century valuations in March to prohibitively expensive. "Fundamentals have to catch up with valuations," says the value investor and author of Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett's Omaha.

However, "the good news is better than the bad news right now," Matthews declares, citing:

  • Retail Sales.  He's encouraged by relatively strong sales figures from Ralph Lauren and J. Crew.  And, bullish sentiment coming from Office Depot's management.
  • Maybe the 'Cash for Clunkers' Wasn't a fluke.  October car sales data show sales have not suffered a post-program hangover.  After a sharp plunge in September, October sales rebounded, and were essentially flat versus the same time last year.

A combination of good news trumping bad news plus fundamentals needing to catch up means the market is likely to go into a consolidation phase (if it hasn't already), Matthews says. That outcome will disappoint the super-bulls but also continue to stymie the bears who've been calling for the rally's demise pretty much since day one.

82 Comments

san
san - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:43PM EST

It's creating an "asset babble" says Roubeni!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:45PM EST

Hey....It was Mr. Greenspan....{Cheap Money}....That Started...THIS WHOLE FREAKING.....Financial Nightmare.....I Guess We Have...NOT ..Learned Anything..From The Past..!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:46PM EST

Remember in the late 1980s when the Japanese seemed to be buying up all our property? How did that work out? We Americans just need to find some new bagholders, that's all. Twenty years from now we can have some laughs over how the Chinese got taken.

Rick
Rick - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:50PM EST

What is really funny is the closing statements ... it becomes obvious that he does not even believe what he is peddeling ...

Polski
Polski - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:50PM EST

Some people buying into RE today, are starting to understand their Values, and Loans, will be Up-side-"down" in 6 months? Don't believe, Buy-In! It's a good Deal?

donfurio
donfurio - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:53PM EST

It's creating an "asset babble" says Roubeni!---------Roubeni, you mean the guy who is always a perma-bear and said we were going right to DOW 5000 in march.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:56PM EST

However, "the good news is better than the bad news right now," Matthews declares, citing: (IRRELEVANT) – My clientele will DEFINITELY stop listening (and probably slug me) if I say something like “The good news is better than the bad news.” This guy has picked up some REALLY bad habits somewhere.

StephenL
StephenL - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:58PM EST

This guy is an idiot. Shadow inventory is real because the banks don't want to reveal how bad the losses will be. The amount of inventory that will hit the market in the upper band due to negative am loans is going to kill mid to high end re. Low end is mostly done. Buy Gold, and average in on the next major correction in equities.

Helga
Helga - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:59PM EST

It's okay, moral & legal;...Go Punch a speculator in the back of the head....it'll do ya some good.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:01PM EST

Jump in the water is just fine ... fortunes can be made.... just turn on the TV at 2:00am every day and watch how it is done... You even get the hot babes .... and don't worry about the banks because they are still pulling off the same mortgage deals they have in the past ....

donfurio
donfurio - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:02PM EST

Hahaha, this is so great, even if we get a 10% correction into the end of the year, Blodget and Task and the rest the TT posters who think we are in a depression will have been so wrong this year. I thought we were supposed to have another crash in July, and then it was September and then October, hahhaha keep dreaming guys but the long term direction is up.

Leo
Leo - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:02PM EST

This guy has as much credibility with me as a used car saleman. Nevermind the shadow inventory that he mentions in passing, what about second bubble that we are creating with the Fed trying to push banks to loan to people who don't have the means and/or the job security? (I think I've seen this movie before, and it ends badly.)

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:07PM EST

You can either buy real estate to make money or you can scam folks like Turtletrader does.

william
william - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:08PM EST

u yahoos waiting for the market to crash... are being left behind... seeee ya....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:17PM EST

Where ever your going, we don't want to be. BUH BYE.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:20PM EST

I need more real estate investments about as much as I need a hole in my head.

JC
JC - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:21PM EST

Cheap money plays a role, but until incomes come in line with housing prices, housing market is doomed, no matter how much bribery Congress offers. According to latest reports, subprime borrowers (those with FICO of less than 660) already crossed 20% - at the same level as it was in 2006. So, to solve a problem created by subprime crisis, we create another subprime solution. Awesome, I say.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:29PM EST

WILLIAM, IT WILL CRASH ON YOUR A--

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:35PM EST

Let these guys talk about the money they made. Watch and see how long they hold onto that flotsam when it starts to drop ... All you'll hear is how the gloom and doom people screwed the market.

vidya
vidya - Wednesday November 04, 2009 02:37PM EST

I don't know what this guy is talking about. Let's get this right, new home sales were up 25%? Is this correct? Maybe it is! If you sell 4 homes last month and you sell 5 this month, that is, 1 more. That is a 25% increase, isn't it? So what is this statistical analysis tell - to me it is 1 more home. It's meaningless. Everything is still smoke and mirrors!

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