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Charlie Gasparino: Job Losses Could Trigger Round 2 of Banking Crisis

Posted Nov 10, 2009 07:30am EST by Peter Gorenstein in Newsmakers, Banking

The unemployment rate now stands at 10.2%, yet stocks are at a 2009 high. The bulls will tell you not to worry; the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. True as that may be, Charlie Gasparino author of The Sellout, has a word of warning: the jobs data may be a leading indicator when it comes to the health of our banking system.

One of Gasparino's sources, Calyon Securities banking analyst Mike Mayo (who warned of the credit bubble before the crash) tells him, if unemployment rises to 11%, "there could be an issue where we have round 2 of this crisis."

Why?

  • If unemployment ticks higher, more consumer loans are likely to go into default and banks may have problems covering the additional loan losses. For now, banks are thriving from a low interest rate environment that allows them to borrow for nearly nothing and invest in safe Treasuries at 3.5%. That could all change if they need to boost reserves.
  • Banks may find it difficult to raise more capital after already taking billions from the government. Are you willing to lend to zombie banks like Citigroup and Bank of America? Even relatively healthy banks like JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo might find it difficult.
  • Toxic assets still infect the banking industry. Gasparino says $7 trillion in derivatives isn't a problem that goes away overnight, especially if the economy gets worse and their value falls once again. "It took 30 years to build this toxic assets, they [banks] haven't sold a lot of it, they haven’t written it down to zero," he warns.

How can we solve the problem?

Prevent outlandish risk taking behavior. The government should send a clear message to the banks, he says. "Cut that umbilical cord right now… if you screw up this time you're on your own."

Recent history suggests that's easier said then done.

167 Comments

Michael
Michael - Tuesday November 10, 2009 07:41AM EST

Right......

drchemp
drchemp - Tuesday November 10, 2009 07:42AM EST

This scenerio is a godd example of how gov't policies, before and after the crisis, prevent now market equilibration. The gov't is the cause of this crisis - failure to regulate before and insistence to interfere after. What exactly is the education requirement to become a policy maker. Zero IQ?

Rick
Rick - Tuesday November 10, 2009 07:48AM EST

No duhhhh ... If people do not have money and credit is dried up ... we have to dig into our savings to spend ... oppps ... forgot to do that over the past 10 years. No matter, the government has free money to give away ... unfortunately "we the people" do not have access to it ... only the banks and the too big to fail organizations ... which are making money hands over fist in the new dow ponsi scheme.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 10, 2009 07:52AM EST

We should be taking to the streets to stop this spin, rape and pillage. Think they'll listen?

j
j - Tuesday November 10, 2009 07:56AM EST

JUst what exactly is "zombie bank". The definition I've come across most frequently is an institution that is unable to originate loans due to its need to maintain capital. BofA is originating loans. I just refi'ed with them. If the banks are functioning, it's harsh to fling around terms like zombie, unless you have an agenda. Unfortunately, the media has a new agenda. To sell books. Charlie is pimping his book all over the place. It's smart I guess, but he dilutes his credibility when his mug shows up everywhere, constantly telling everyone how much he knows. Maybe he should let the book reviews sell his book on merit, rather than leverage his job and connections to garner free publicity.

Matt
Matt - Tuesday November 10, 2009 07:59AM EST

How about giving businesses incentives to hire. Tax credits would be nice. C'mon Obama get with the job creation...do that and all will be well..well not really but it will be better.

mark
mark - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:10AM EST

You couldn't give his book for free. The clown never said crap when the crisis was unfolding, and now he knows everything. CNBC are crooks too!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:13AM EST

Tech Ticker is FULL of people who feel LUCKY and are GLAD the job market in this country is a wasteland. If it wasn’t, then they would never have learned to fully appreciate the STOCK MARKET. Whoopee! Who needs jobs?

don
don - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:13AM EST

A "zombie" bank is what they were left with in japan. Now just think how well that worked out. Mkt down 70% over about 20 years with a few really good looking rallies that turned out to be all in a bear mkt.

marx
marx - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:15AM EST

of course we will have more unemployment because the GOV is standing by doing NOTHING.China used 600 B to create jobs via building infrastructure and the US spent 14% of the 700 B on the banks with no change in rules ect. for those banks to stop or dissolve those toxic assets.The wars continue along with the spending which is more of the same.Bush part III .

BENEVOLUS
BENEVOLUS - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:15AM EST

When did ole wino Charlie become an economist. I guess everybody got an opinion he just got more celebrity status but a lot less sense like most celebrities

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:17AM EST

too big to fail? make them smaller

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:19AM EST

So the market will continue to climb while the 'haves' put there play money in the market...rising unemployment (10.2%) won't stop these folks...they (and the government) need the 'excitement' of larger meltdown. Gambling at its worst. The new math: Huge, unsustainable deficits + ballooning IOUs to China + unimaginable, out-of-control bailout and healthcare spending + demise of private freedoms/growth of communism + 2 (or more) wars + loss of techniques to make products here is US because it was moved to another country + bastardization of the accounting system = endless happy days on Wall Street.

goldchest
goldchest - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:21AM EST

Only the too big to fail banks have been able to access funds from the Fed at zero rate,against junk securities. What have they done with the funds? They are not lending as growth in credit is down. They are speculating in the Global derivative Markets as usual - looks like a last chance to get fat bonuses ahead of year end. Speculative profits for bank employees and losses for poor Tax payers. I think the Treasury should officially be made a subsidary of Wall Street.

william
william - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:24AM EST

invest people... the more gloom and doom the higher the markets... the American government (taxpayers) are in this knee deep.. they will continue to get in deeper... they have no choice.. in the meantime, instead of staying in the sidelines... invest and keep the market momentum going up...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:28AM EST

The economy is circling the drain. One more wrong move and poof! Hey if the US government files bankrupcy then we get out of owing china. HAHAHA!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:28AM EST

The govt has helped only a small minority with their stimulus package. The banks, auto industry, Ins and wall street execs got their bonus and party money needed to keep going. Cash for clunkers was a stinker. To date, I've received nothing and my taxes continue to go up. The govt should of given each US citizen a 1% drop in mortgage rate, which would have saved money, which in turn would have been spent and put back in the economy, which would have created more jobs. Unemployment will reach 11-12%. And meanwhile, our politicians pat themselves on the back. They are so out of touch.

Rey
Rey - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:29AM EST

Wait till reality sets in of the state of our economy // FORECLOSURES // JOBLOSES // BANKS FAILING // DOLLAR GOING DOWN THE DRAIN // This Market is going to crash so hard that the suicide rate of all investing will rise dramatically

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:32AM EST

YAWN - SPIT

Jan
Jan - Tuesday November 10, 2009 08:32AM EST

What people fail to realize is that Government has taken the position that it will intervene in the economy in any way possible to prevent a collapse. That, of course, is what government is for....................................... Saying that Gov should not step in and help the banks in any new crisis is like telling you not to breath. Tain't gonna happen.

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