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On the Money So Far, Liz Ann Sonders Is "On the Optimistic End of the Spectrum"

Posted Nov 11, 2009 10:21am EST by Aaron Task
Liz Ann Sonders, chief market strategist at Charles Schwab has kept Tech Ticker viewers ahead of the curve:
  • In October 2008 she said the recession was upon us and would be deep. Remember, this was months before the NBER's official declaration and at a time when most economists were debating whether or not a recession was in the offing.
  • In June 2009 she said the recession was ending, if not already over, a highly controversial statement at the time.

In her last Tech Ticker appearance on September 8, Sonders said the recession was likely to take the shape of a square-root sign, with a V-shaped rebound followed by a prolonged flattening. Today, she upgraded that view: "It's very clear we're in the midst of a V-shaped recovery," she said. And if the square-root pattern doesn't pan out, the more likely scenario is "the V-will have more legs" vs. a double-dip W-shaped downturn.

"I'm on the more optimistic end of the spectrum," Sonders says. "I'm not expecting the kind of pop in growth you'd normally see after such a big compression, but probably [growth] still above what is a very low level of expectations."

If the V-pattern does have legs, two major questions arise that Sonders addresses in the accompanying video:

  • When will the Fed tighten? While the Fed's last statement was surprisingly dovish, the mention of inflation expectations (vs. actual inflation) shows the Fed is thinking about an exit strategy. Furthermore, Sonders says we should all hope for Fed hikes sooner vs. later, even if the rally will suffer some indigestion as a result. "I shudder to think of an environment through 2011 that justifies zero-percent interest rates," she says.
  • When will job growth restart? Sonders says a rising unemployment rate is typical at this point of a recovery, noting unemployment doesn't typically peak until six months after a recession ends. But she is encouraged by the decline in jobless claims from their peak levels, the rise (albeit slow) in job postings and the "less bad" payroll data, which she predicts will turn positive in early 2010.

Let's hope her streak of prescient forecasting continues.

124 Comments

franck s
franck s - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:33AM EST

I told you guys about Dow 10,000 and 10% + unemployment. New prediction is Dow 12,000 and 11% (admitted) unemployment by end December.

chubby
chubby - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:36AM EST

" Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:28AM EST All I want know " ------------------ What a juvenile tool you are. No wonder you hide behind that Yahoo! Finance User handle.

chubby
chubby - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:38AM EST

Could somebody delete that stuff posted by the 14 year old pud-whacker above? I know school is out today.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:39AM EST

Please filter the comments before they are posted on the web. Some of this comments are out of context and some unexceptable. Thank you.

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:42AM EST

Hey Gang! Happy Wednesday! Good Morning America and the world beyond! Welcome back Liz Ann Sonders! The shape of the recovery is less important in terms of Main street optimism. The general mood on the street is that Americans are outraged at the loss of all those jobs. I wonder if Americans will soon just give up wanting to support any company that pretends to care...Slave labor jobs are not the solution to this desperate need to employ Americans. Grab a mop and hold on the jobs are coming is falling on deaf ears. The real solution may be to boycott corporate senility and continue to buy the cheapest products one can find! Who cares about the employment situation? Consumers and not corporations! Boycotts may do the trick! smiles....maybe not...wow!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:42AM EST

Folks, these companies are not making money. We are spending borrowed money. Government cannot keep stimulating. When the stimulus stops, we will left with a huge debt burden and nothing else. GDP-Debt is NOT increasing! This is another Tulip Mania. Look how over valued the stocks are. http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/near_bottom.html

Beancounter
Beancounter - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:44AM EST

The fact is, things don't go from terrible to good overnight. Since April, we've been seeing "less bad". But IJC has gone from 660,000 per week to 512,000 per week. Unemployment will keep rising for 34 months, but at a lower rate. In 1st qtr next yr it will hit equilibrium and in 2nd qtr start going down.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:44AM EST

South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania and this is a financial mania: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/financial_mania_continues.html

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:45AM EST

I want to know when the recession is going to kick into the stock market. Apparently, the Banks and insurers are playing the market with stimulus money. I guess this is what the Obama admin had in mind when they offered over $800 billion stimulus money with no questions asked.

franck s
franck s - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:45AM EST

The number of unemployed will grow so fast in coming months, the Fed will be forced to admit at least by half or so to the true numbers. At present the 'underground truth' states the unemployment rate at over 15%. Additionally, many have gone back to work at pay rates only a fraction of their earlier salaries.

Helga
Helga - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:46AM EST

I am beginning to realize that the unemployed & poor are irrelevant; the economy just doesn't see them as they don't even exist. Unemployed & poor are Kind of like children or ghosts in the economy. The only thing the economy & market sees is the velocity of the money supply and how well that 'money' is managed by individuals and companies. Part of that management of the money supply is not hiring new 'leeches'; but making your current 'leeches' more profitable. The government is a consumer & spender and helps grease the velocity of the money supply . From now on just forget the unemployed in the scheme of the economy because they literally don't count other than they spend every last penny and help the velocity.

Rey
Rey - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:48AM EST

EENY MINNY MINY MOE // Stop Guessing you dumb blonde //

franck s
franck s - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:50AM EST

No, let the comment stand. When folks insult the intelligence of others to such an extent, they should expect crude insults in return.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:50AM EST

WALL STREET NEEDS MORE TRANSPARENCY ENFORCED UPON IT

Michael
Michael - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:52AM EST

I think you meant to say she called the beginning of the recession in October 2007, not 2008.

franck s
franck s - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:53AM EST

No, don't delete comments here. It is time for the gloves to come off. Folks who insult the intelligence of others should expect insults in return.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:54AM EST

The dam is cracking. How many fingers do you have?

Xong Xie
Xong Xie - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:57AM EST

red giant know yu lie. yu make nothing and yu economy made by red giant money. red giant control yu.

Pat G
Pat G - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:57AM EST

yes be long and get wiped out AGAIN !!

william
william - Wednesday November 11, 2009 10:58AM EST

finally.... somebody worth listening to in TT.... for those of you whiners... stop and listen to common sense and intellectual thesis... get on the train.. choo choo choo... or stay out dig a hole for cover....

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