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Why It May Be a Good Time to Buy a House: 'Real' Mortgage Rates Improving

Posted Nov 11, 2009 01:00pm EST by Heesun Wee in Investing, Recession, Banking, Housing

Sales of previously owned homes rose 11.4% during the third quarter while median prices fell 11.2%, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors. 

"The market is clearing," says our guest, Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. "In a lot of cases the best sales are coming in areas where the price declines have been the most severe."

Not surprisingly many buyers were lured into the market by falling prices, with so-called distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) accounting for 30% of activity, according to the NAR. "When the pricing metric gets so enticing, it stimulates demand," she tells Aaron and Henry.

Just seasonal demand? While some bears argue recent sales gains reflect seasonal warm-weather buying, Sonders doesn't see another giant leg down in prices coming. "It's hard for me to envision a scenario where across the board we're looking at another 25% to 30% drop in housing prices," she says.

Of course the real question here is: What's your real mortgage rate? That's your borrowing costs plus the appreciation or depreciation of your home, as she explained here.

"The real mortgage rate is improving," Sonders says. Values are "falling at a less rapid pace. That math is starting to look a little bit better."

 

111 Comments

Helga
Helga - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:10PM EST

Heads up:...Tell those uninformed people who used the "cash for Clunkers"; that "CLUNKER CASH" is taxable income.........BUT; The tax credit for new home buyers is a "tax credit" you don't pay taxes on it.

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:13PM EST

reasons to buy a house,,1 .madoff is selling, 2. fema disaster trailers are for sale,, 3.you can afford the county taxxxxxeeeesss for eternity,,4. if you loose it all theres always public housing

chubby
chubby - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:18PM EST

Well let's see... mortgage rates are at historical lows, and house prices are depressed. If you've still got a job, then it's probably a pretty good one. Yeah, it's a good time to buy house, with or without tax credits. It's the best opportunity I've seen in my lifetime. Thank you, Captain Obvious.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:20PM EST

Folks, current market is held up by government subsidy. The root cause of the problem is excessive debt levels. Debt must increase exponentially to sustain the GDP growth. It cannot happen. We will go down until the debt is wiped out to a sustainable multiple of GDP. Case Shiller index suggests we are still 20% above long term averages. History shows, bottom comes below the average. Here is the debt problem: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/inflation_deflation_credit_bub.html

Polski
Polski - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:24PM EST

What if you do-do run out and "Buy" that house? Then, what if there is another 25-30% drop in the Market, "But" your Mortgage does not reflect the drop? Per HGTV can you take the risk to take money to-the- table to "Sell" that house, when you become a "Short-Sale"? This!, is Penic!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:27PM EST

Realestate is still a joke right now. Prices are still way too high. You could build new, for the price you pay for an existing structure thats dilapidated. The economy is so F'd up that I know people with luxury apartments for rent in hot markets that they cant rent. Go ahead buy your sheriff sales you could let your pets live there. We need to have a multimillion unemployed march on washington and congress. I heard that they may have some extra cake they can give us.

Rey
Rey - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:29PM EST

Sure ask the bank to lend you the money HAHAHAHAHAHA this just gave me the laugh of the day

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:30PM EST

WHY BUY.1.ITS FUN TRIMMING CRABGRASS ON A $1500 MOWER .2.ALL THE FORCLOSED HOMES IN YOUR AREA KEEP PRICES UP,3.ITS FUN BLOWING EVERYTHING TRYING TO KEEP DRUG DEALERS AWAY,4.ITS A GREAT PLACE TO HIDE ALL THE BODIES,

JC
JC - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:37PM EST

House prices will drop another 25% within seconds once Fed stops buying up garbage mortgage portfolio from Fannie Mae which is insured by another government agency, FHA. Can anyone deny that the subprime loans constitute more now in percentage terms than at the height of the bubble? Gotta love Ayn Randian Fed.

william
william - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:38PM EST

people... for those smart enough to be in the stock market... take some profits and start looking for real estate invesments... theres some good deals out there.. let's capitalize on the unfortunate suckers who bought at the peak.. get on the train... choo... choo....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:39PM EST

hey, buy and flip.. V shaped... it's boom time.... make sure you use ALL THE BUZZ words for you school book econ paper... mmm mmm mmm.... buy now before the prices skyrocket... just think of all the home buyers there will be when the SHOVEL READY jobs kick in.... hey buy that house in michigan cause there are going to be 40,000 new GREEN JOBS and house hunting will be going on... oh, in 2020 that is.. buy and hold now... mmm mmm mmm... just get in line.. obama is having a NEW STASH LINE for his giveaway cash.. ACORN is hiring... mmm mmm mmm

Terry
Terry - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:39PM EST

The Government is the problem with their artificial stimulus. People are so short sited don't they know that it all has to be paid back in the form of higher taxes, hidden new fees and hyper-inflation. These politicians only care about getting re-elected so they keep messing with our capitalist system to buy votes. Fool them for a change and... No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

G.
G. - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:40PM EST

"It's easy for me to envision a scenario where across the board we're looking at another 25% to 30% drop in housing prices," he says.

G.
G. - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:42PM EST

The Elites continue to bail out Wall Street, big banks and associated hedge funds. They do not care about Main Street America or its pension funds. Americans please do not think for one moment that you matter as you don’t. The Elites in control of our government, Fed and US Treasury do not care about your home or the loss of it, your debt…. “you or your family”as both are consider expendable goods to be used only for war and wealth creation. That is until the Elites decide they need “your wealth” and take it back… which is happening now. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please note your US Government attempts to pacify Americans with bones as it throws big money… serious cash subsides to Wall Street to pad their balance sheets and boost markets. Now…every time Americans buy a tank of gas, loaves of bread or ear of corn they subsidize Wall Street commodity traders whom manipulate World Commodity Markets and make trillions of dollars at your expense. This is a form of indirect taxation allowed and/or sanctioned by your US Government as they attempt to recapitalize Wall Street and big bank balance sheets. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The rapid ascent of World Stock Exchanges is a hurried rush to the exits before the really bad news arrives… and it will arrive… as US Company profits are based upon mass layoffs, cheap money and off shoring. The US Companies can maintain these profits only so long… till the “facts” catch up with the grand scheme. The rising double digit unemployment and decreasing sales will level the playing field as the American consumer whom formerly purchased 70% of American GDP and 30% of everything the World made is broke… and getting poorer by the minute. Let me sum this up in a formula you can understand….. “No cash in American Consumers pockets = slow sales = no company grow = down markets = Depression” ----------------------------------- Wake up Americans you’ve being robbed, taken to the cleaners and thrown to the side of the road by the Elites, Wall Street kids, idiots running the Federal Reserve, Treasury and some very, very stupid Congressmen… bought and owned by the “kids on K Street”. --------- The end is near.

John
John - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:42PM EST

To Helga, stop spreading false information: "Cash for Clunkers" credit is NOT taxable. It is also free of sales tax in Missouri and Illinois. Go fish.

jim p
jim p - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:44PM EST

loans are so easy to get for qualified borrowers NOT!! the major banks are not loaning a dime of our tax money back to us.

ezshooter
ezshooter - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:44PM EST

2010 will generate a big increase in homes on market and a few fire- sale prices in some states. Christmas time is always a great time to buy a house, regardless of what year. I would agree, these next couple years will be good home purchase windows but save up a good downpayment, learn from this foreclosure era.

TF
TF - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:45PM EST

Liz Ann Sonders needs to sell her house but is upside down. Can anyone help?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:46PM EST

TRY DEDUCTING ANYTHING FROM THE "TOTALLY SKEWED 1040 AND THE SKEWED TAX TABLES.AND YOUR PAY CHECK DEDUCTIONS . ITS LIKE DEALING WITH "THE INVISABLE MAN".

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 11, 2009 01:46PM EST

TRY DEDUCTING ANYTHING FROM THE "TOTALLY SKEWED 1040 AND THE SKEWED TAX TABLES.AND YOUR PAY CHECK DEDUCTIONS . ITS LIKE DEALING WITH "THE INVISABLE MAN".

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