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Get Ready for a Classic, Technically-Driven Rally

Posted Jul 08, 2008 10:54am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Electronics, Internet, Information Technology
The stock market was struggling to make much headway Tuesday morning even as oil prices retreated again and Ben Bernanke reiterated the Fed's willingness to aid ailing Wall Street firms.

Still, the market is technically poised for a "relief rally," says Kevin Depew, executive editor of Minyanville.com, who notes several technical indicators are back to levels last seen before the market's mid-March bounce.

Specifically, Depew cited the Bullish Percent Indicator and High-Low Index produced by Investors Intelligence. These indicators measure the level of buying - or more recently - selling interest in stocks, as well as the ratio of stocks at new 52-week highs vs. new lows.

As of Monday, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Indicator was just 26.5%, indicating a very low level of buying interest - as reflected by recent market action. Similarly, just 11.5% of NYSE stocks were at new 52-week highs, notes Depew, a former analyst at Dorsey, Wright.

These and related indicators suggest the selling has reached a climax, at least near-term, which should lead to a "classic technical rally," says Depew, adding any near-term rally is likely to be led by "staple" (vs. consumer-related) tech stocks such as diagnostics firm PerkinElmer (which he owns.)

69 Comments

David L
David L - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:15AM EDT

Let everyone hope that this will mean that the oil companies will realize the stock market isn't something you want to break. Now watch the dawning of new technology needs to be implament. Alternative energy. Why don't we have them insist on releasing althose pattents they gobbled up.

scott
scott - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:19AM EDT

David L - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:15AM EDT Let everyone hope that this will mean that the oil companies will realize the stock market isn't something you want to break. Now watch the dawning of new technology needs to be implament. Alternative energy. Why don't we have them insist on releasing althose pattents they gobbled up. Now in English, please!

shirley
shirley - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:25AM EDT

If individuals insist on commenting, the least they could do would be to learn to spell and punctuate!

shirley
shirley - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:25AM EDT

If individuals insist on commenting, the least they could do would be to learn to spell and punctuate!

shirley
shirley - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:25AM EDT

If individuals insist on commenting, the least they could do would be to learn to spell and punctuate!

shirley
shirley - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:26AM EDT

If individuals insist on commenting, the least they could do would be to learn to spell and punctuate!

Harry
Harry - Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:31AM EDT

Agree -savage technical rally then S&P down to 1000 in August. Go tot the beach in August.

- Tuesday July 08, 2008 11:57AM EDT

If there is any bull rally it will be short, and the following down turn will be very steep. Follow history, minor rallies always occur during economic down turns. The market and the economy will not stabilize until the price of oil either drops, or the public somehow finds the money to pay for $5.00 per gallon fuel. I don't foresee either of those things in the near future. It's going to be a long rough ride to the bottom.The U.S. economy is in the tank, get used to it. The dow will drop below ten thousand, foreclosures and repos will persist, B.K. both personal an corprate will skyrocket. Are there no poor houses, no treadmills, no debters prisons? This bust will make 29 look like a picnik. I attended a meeting of banking wizards ten years ago that predicted this, too bad eveyone was too caught up in their own little worlds to take heed

BRYAN
BRYAN - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:02PM EDT

TGC IS GOING TO 17

BRYAN
BRYAN - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:02PM EDT

TGC IS GOING TO 17

BRYAN
BRYAN - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:02PM EDT

TGC IS GOING TO 17

BRYAN
BRYAN - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:04PM EDT

TGC IS GOING TO 17

Louis C
Louis C - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:09PM EDT

The market situation will be worsened by the political mess. The most frightening thought is that one of these two will win. If it is Obama be prepared for fiscal disaster quickly. If McCain it will be a slow, painful process. With the mess of those in Congress, there is no hope for the foreseeable future. Just be glad it isn't Clinton, the disaster would be worse faster.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:16PM EDT

Whatever. More market speak for "you better buy so I can sell!"

thebirge666
thebirge666 - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:17PM EDT

Democrats will destroy the country instantly but McCain will be slow. That is hilarious and means nothing.

Q q
Q q - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:26PM EDT

Amazing how those who post here are so sure of the future. Similarly, I am constantly amazed at that those who should know what is coming ahead, the analysts and advisors, have no clue whatsoever yet talk as if they do. I wish I could have a million dollar salary and have no clue about anything of consequence. I have been able to identify only one predictor of the future of the stock market, and that is the emotions of those in the baby boom, of which I am a member. I have no comment on the emotions of the baby boomers at this time. As to those who post on here with only doom and gloom with little actual ability to predict the future, all I can say is, some people just have that kind of temperment.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:27PM EDT

History show when times like this,Market all over the world falling.All bad news factored in.It almost not in the bottom yet but there are sign the we are near.Not far now.Assume we rich the bottom in anticipation. What are the sign.First look up the Utility Sector if they are moving up gradually.Then follwed by leading Pharmaceotical Sector.See The Dow Jones Index,If you have the Tracker Fund now and if it will became stable add some more do invest in averaging position now in a tracker fund which measure the biggest companies.From there move to individual stocks such In Pharmaceotical Sector,then telephone,then go on if still rising, make a move yet to another sector, till your confidence slowly coming back.Once confidence come back to yourself by then you will realize everything will recovering even the financial sector.In My opinion if the Dow Jones doen not fall 5% more from this low by then we are on the bottom the market is about to start to recover.

gib_etheridge
gib_etheridge - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:32PM EDT

There's no need for all of this pain. Take a look at Zero Pollution Motors (Google it). Do the math using the specs, we can almost eliminate the need for oil, which, of course, would put us back in the position of being the world leaders again, and help to keep us there for the foreseeable future as well. Shame on you George, you've almost destroyed a very good thing. Perhaps our new leaders will have the foresight that you lack.

JONATHANS
JONATHANS - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:36PM EDT

Yes Louis, you hit the nail on the head with your deep insight. We all know that George W. Bush has been a true shining beacon of hope for our economy. Look at the numbers when he came in to office compared to now. It's totally clear that he instills great confidence in the markets and the dollar. Nevermind the "War President". He will most certainly go down in history as the "Economy President".

Richard
Richard - Tuesday July 08, 2008 12:36PM EDT

The DJIA is headiing to the 2500 level through the next four years no matter who is elected. The real estate market losses have just begun to affect the consumer credit balance statements. There is two types of inflation...floating bonds to finance the war...and raising interest rates to attract purchasers for the debt. Both ways are printing money.

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