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Falling Oil Prices Not Necessarily Good for Stocks

Posted Jul 08, 2008 03:39pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

Oil prices have dropped $9 since reaching a record of near $146 a barrel last week. On Tuesday, the stock market responded to oil's drop (and Ben Bernanke's comments) as most people expect - with a sharp rally. 

But even as he predicts a relief rally, Kevin Depew, executive editor of Minyanville.com says don't get overly excited about the oil-stock relationship. Falling oil prices are a barometer of weakening demand and a softening global economy. And that spells bad news for earnings -- and the energy-heavy S&P 500 index that includes Exxon, Chevron and Apache to name a few.

Meanwhile, oil investor Boone Pickens told CNBC today he sees near-term oil prices hovering around $150 a barrel, and possibly retreating to $100 in two years. Pickens also said the U.S. is "very close to a disaster" because we import nearly 70 percent of our oil. So while retreating oil prices are good news for consumers, the effects are more murky for earnings and equities.

100 Comments

you
David L - Tuesday July 08, 2008 03:58PM EDT

Who cares about earnings. The problem is either the oil componies are sitting on alternative pattents that could get us off oil or continued high prices will cause the stock market to plunge. I don't know about you, but I'm sick of this psyche games these componies are playing.

you
sierralakesrealty@sbcglobal.net - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:02PM EDT

Weakening demand mostly from speculators. Lower prices will ease the grip and allow business return to profitability.

jmschn
jmschn - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:02PM EDT

Kevin probably has a huge stake in oil stocks...way to manipulate the market and weak minded with your opinion on lowered prices of oil

Plog D
Plog D - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:02PM EDT

You would think Mr. Task would know the difference between "weakening demand" and "lower quantity demanded." It's a typical undergraduate microecon blunder. Anyone that thinks the demand for oil is going down has rocks in their head. The rate at which demand increases may rise and fall but there will no doubt be more buyers for oil tomorrow than today and that will hold true until we revolutionaize our transportation and electricity poduction methods. -plog

you
wholemole - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:03PM EDT

What a load of crap!! Falling OIL is not a sign of softening economy!! It is a sign of speculators off loading their dollars!! Falling OIL and GAS prices will put the money back in the hands of consumer, which means more consumer spending should increase and so would also help auto sales..

lakerscfp
lakerscfp - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:04PM EDT

I disagree with this article. Lower gas prices mean consumers will have more money to spend on other items, which in turn should bode well for companies. This is a consumer-driven economy. And yes, as goes the US, so does the rest of the world....still.

Brett M
Brett M - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:05PM EDT

OMG. One industry is not posting record earnings like they were the last 2 years to the American consumer. Boo Hoo. I bet you this guy owns stock in these oil companies. Producing fear for people is the media's best weapon.

you
slapshot - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:06PM EDT

right on David

you
bigtrendsjames - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:07PM EDT

Interesting take. I don't disagree. However, he's making an assumption that logic prevails in stock prices. If we weren't paying $4 for a gallon of gas, drivers/investors may be investing more confidently. It may not make sense, but a stock's price is solely determined by whether or not there are net buyers or net sellers. That's mostly a function of fear or greed. It's not logical, but that's the reality.

you
gobee999 - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:07PM EDT

Ok, not one to typically [I've *NEVER* placed a comment on any article] I understand that these things are meant to generate user interest - but I'm going to have to start looking elsewhere for my news for those that don't know -- Depew is a BEAR. Nothing wrong with being a bear, but people please know that this person WANTS the stock market to go down HUGE. Read his articles ONE time on Minyanville and then decide for yourself on whether or not he is someone that will be able to help you in your investment decisions. cheaper oil=less expensive goods=more profits into MOST companies. including refineries. The companies that "suffer" -- the drillers... I feel terrible for the huge profits they will continue to make at $100 a barrel

you
TC - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:08PM EDT

Let's see; if oil prices go UP, it's bad for equities and if oil prices go DOWN it's bad for equities. Hmmm..

you
camel1942 - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:10PM EDT

Bull

you
Nick A - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:11PM EDT

Falling OIL / Energy prices will lead to a rebound in spending which will lead to better earnings. Do you understand how much extra the consumer is paying for everything and I mean everything due to high energy prices.

geo
geo - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:13PM EDT

What, this guy has gone loco. Higher oil prices make the goods more expensive, not only in the transportation but for the product itself. How can it be bad to have lower prices. The oil should not be traded to begin with.... People will spend more if they have more to spend. Crazy...

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:13PM EDT

I disagree as well. The point about the softening economy might be valid, but at least falling prices is better than rising prices in many aspects.

Mike O
Mike O - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:17PM EDT

I have no problem with people making money. but when your actions have a negative effect on the country your part of should be considered an act of treason.

you
AndrewJ5267 - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:18PM EDT

Trying to say lower oil prices is bad for stocks is not only WRONG, but an obvious ploy to benefit the oil companies. FACT: High oil prices is the #1 reason for increased prices, which translates to fewer products that the consumer can purchase, which translates to the "weakening demand and a softening global economy". SOLUTION: Replace oil-energy with "free"-energy (i.e. solar, wind, water currents, geothermal, etc.). The initial start-up costs might seem frightening, but what country is going to restrict how much sun, wind, or rain we get? -- NOBODY! And how much do those natural resources cost to mine? -- NOTHING! And once we rid ourselves of this dependency on other countries' oil, Iran and the like will have NO bargaining power against us! Tell me again why continuing to use oil is a good thing?

you
arthur w - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:18PM EDT

WHY DONT WE USE OUR OIL NOT THE REST OF THE WORLD'S SUPPLY ARE WE THAT DUMB WHY DO PAID FOR THE WORLD OIL AND NOT SPEND THE MONEY HERE IN OUR COUNTRY WHY SENT MONEY OVER SEAS TO PAID FOR OIL

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:18PM EDT

I don"t think that fallinig oil price going to solve any economic problems,it's not only oil but food,matal,energy cost driving up and effecting consumer.it's time to put cap on speculators,they are taking disadvanage of free market policy,

you
roseyman22 - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:21PM EDT

The whole problem with the argument that speculators don't impact the price of oil is that entities who have to actually take delivery have to pay what the market is asking for the price of oil. If this whole "speculators don't take delivery" argument held any weight, we would see the bottom drop out of prices as contracts mature, which is not the case. I'm really getting sick of analyst's try to imply that the price of oil is to due with one or two factors. Just like everything in the world, there are an insane amount of variables affecting the price of oil, for example ethanol production, demand, liquidity in the market, sentiment, oil stocks, opec production, the state of the economy, to name just a few.

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