Thursday, January 7, 2010, 11:03AM ET - U.S. Markets close in 4 hours and 57 minutes.
Oil prices have dropped $9 since reaching a record of near $146 a barrel last week. On Tuesday, the stock market responded to oil's drop (and Ben Bernanke's comments) as most people expect - with a sharp rally.
But even as he predicts a relief rally, Kevin Depew, executive editor of Minyanville.com says don't get overly excited about the oil-stock relationship. Falling oil prices are a barometer of weakening demand and a softening global economy. And that spells bad news for earnings -- and the energy-heavy S&P 500 index that includes Exxon, Chevron and Apache to name a few.
Meanwhile, oil investor Boone Pickens told CNBC today he sees near-term oil prices hovering around $150 a barrel, and possibly retreating to $100 in two years. Pickens also said the U.S. is "very close to a disaster" because we import nearly 70 percent of our oil. So while retreating oil prices are good news for consumers, the effects are more murky for earnings and equities.
This guy is a real hack OR an evil plant of the oil industry! If Oil goes down profitability will go up and stocks will increase due to increased profits. ALSO, just the fear that is embedded in everyone would be removed if oil went back to $60 then money would come out of cash and into the market. How dumb can this guy be? Also, about speculators. He says it "ridiculous" that we think speculators have something to do with the rise in oil price. If demand worldwide is anywhere from 0-4% higher than last year then how could the price be DOUBLE (or 100% for this guy) from last year? Demand has NOT INCREASED very much at all but the price has skyrocketed. How could that be??? SPECULATORS!
What a bunch of double-speak and crap. Funny, just about every article (there was one Yahoo Finance by Jeremy Siegel just yesterday) attributes some of the faltering economy and poor market performance to rising prices of oil. If Joe Consumer has to spend more money to get to work in the form of higher gas prices, then he has less money to spend on other things. If companies need to spend more on raw materials and transportation then they have lower profits and lower earnings. Oil dropping means the costs of everything that is derived from oil (gasoline, plastics, and so on) and everything that needs to be transported (just about everything) will go down. Whether these costs are passed onto the consumer in the form of lower prices or if the consumer pays the same and comapnies report more profit, is yet to be seen. However, either scenario works out well. If lower costs are passed onto the consumer, maybe they will buy more or at least feel better about the economy and this could help the stock market.. If corporations pocket the cost savings (which is highly likely) they will have greater profits and greater earnings and this would also help the stock market. Why is this tech ticker thing even here? This article above is just crap gleaned from supposed industry experts and other internet sources which are of equal dubious credibility. It's like someone spends 10 minutes surfing the web and gathering suspect and unreliable data and comments, and then throws them together in one incongruent posting. Save the disk space required to store and backup this data and just kill off this tech ticker thing. It sux.
The eccomomy will take at least two years to recover regardless of oil prices.
One day, one wonderful day, the oil will run out. Then we will feel terrible selling wheat to OPEC for $200 a bushell. Hey, pay it or eat your sand.
this guy thinks $140 oil is good for stocks??? What is he smoking!! The consumer is ~70% of the economy
This guy should be hung. I wonder how big of stake he has in oil right now. I am going to find this guy and shove my foot right up his a$%
Qoute; So while retreating oil prices are good news for consumers, the effects are more murky for earnings and equities. Who is this a..hole. can he explain how its murky for earning. So that also means the transports, airlines are sad oil prices can be going down
What a bunch of BS. Almost every sector of the economy from airlines to autos is being crushed by the sharp increase in oil prices. Is this guy off of his rocker?! I feel like these analysts are like weathermen. Everyonce in a while they just need to lay off of the numbers and pony up to the window and take a look at reality.
Pickens is not addressing the issue totally. We got burned in the 70's and did not learn our lesson. Its been 30 years and we still do not produce fuel efficient cars with any size to them. Cmon auto industry pull your head out and produce fuel economy with the larger ones. Anyone that thinks you have to go small to get good fuel is falling for the media retoric. Fuel economy should be no less than 30mpg on any vehicle. As far as alternative fuel. Well Alaska, Wyoming and the Dakotas have more commodoties under the ground to ween us off the Arab oil. Bernanke, oil companies, auto industry and Washington does a great job masking the problems.
Sounds like somebody (Task?) needs their head examined. What an idiot.
Yea Kevin thanks for nothing. If oil prices drop oil stocks will go down, the rest of the market will go up.
Kevin Depew is a communist and should be deported to the depths of the deepest ocean
I think the CEO's of oil companies have made enough! I also think the best thing is to convert autos. to natural gas. Which they will do eventually it isn't hard to do. As a matter of fact you can do it now. I suggest you pay attention to T. Boon Pickens.
I hope Mr. Depew is not suggesting the earnings of UPS and FedX and thousands of companies that transport items from a vendor to a store or distribution center can look forward to falling earnings because of declining oil prices ? To the contrary, the slowdown may be directly caused by the increased price of the oil.
im glad to be reading all this commentary from the yahoo users. i was really concerned to get the concensus of this article and seeing that its overall negative im at ease. this writer seems like a real negative nancy for no logically explained reason. sure you can say that lower oil prices will hurt the stocks of exxon cheveron and apache but dont try to tell me thats gonna give anything above a minor pull to the economy. everything thats been dragged down from high oil is going to go up and the few high horse oil companies are gonna go down. well sell your shares in oil idiot and buy transport. and to say that falling oil prices are a sign of weaking demand is incorrect in this sense, it looks like a rebalancing act from over-speculation. in 5 years if oils still $150 the us is gonna open up drilling laws and we'll have oil pouring out of our as$ anyway. You t boone pickens are a smart man and you task/depew are not!
I believe it is past time for the oil consuming countries to organize ( similar to OPEC), set a price of say $75.00 per barrel, which would give the producing countries a fair price, and allow the consuming countries to live with it without ruining their economy!!! Stiff penalties would have to be enforced against anyone paying above the maximum price per a barrel of oil!!!!
Depew probably works for GM!!! and drives a Honda Fit
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David B - Tuesday July 08, 2008 04:22PM EDT
Kevin Depew has his view, I just don't agree with it. If the price of oil continue's to rise so will everything else that america buys. Unfortunately transportation of goods and services are widely dependent upon foreign oil. I would be more concerned about the price of oil increassing, rather than decreasing. The stock market often rallies when the price of oil goes down which helps our ecconomony at the highest level - business & employment.