Monday, December 28, 2009, 4:34AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 4 hours and 56 minutes.
Even as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testify about the need for new regulation while Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbling again, James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital, says "fear of the unknown" is obscuring opportunity for investors.
On an enterprise value/cash flow basis, almost "everything is cheap," Altucher says, recommending investors buy index ETFs to get exposure to a market the author, columnist and investor believes is "dirt cheap."
Buying a bear market is a bit like jumping off of a cliff when you can't see the bottom. Ready to leap?
Just wait till GM And Ford go belly up, then we might have a bottom.
Credit collapse, banks & capital markets in chaos - can't fund corporate operations via credit; capital base erosion via stock sell-off; self-financing via operations becoming difficult to well nye impossible. Nope. Stocks may be "dirt cheap" but likely to get 'dirtier cheaper'.
I mean the speculators act more like Bush's administration, there is no denying that.
No question "Everything is Cheap". "Cheap" has little value. When "Everything is Inexpensive", I will buy.
Judging by the sentiment on this blog and other places, we may be approaching a time to buy. No one can "time" the market which is why traders eventually get defeated. However, I am always skeptical of anyone who believes that they can time the market so I agree that Altucher may have a lot of hot air. Be patient, do your homework and be Be an investor. Don't try to time the whole market or even an individual company's stock price. I remember the gloom and doom as the market approached the bottom in 2000 (the dot bust) and before that in the 90's when we had the "savings and loan crisis". The bottoms happened just when the negative sentiment was peaking. But those who were investors were eventually rewarded. There is a big difference between an investor and a trader. An investor should be looking for value in a longer time frame (3-5 years). A trader is just looking for opportunity for quick returns. However, be careful about buying the "market" as opposed to individual companies (diversified across industries). There is also a difference between the "value" of a stock (or any financial instrument for that matter) and it's price. Value is more driven by the fundamentals of the entity and the expected future cash flows or appreciation (which is really only derived from the expectation of future cash flows of an investment. Whereas price, which is what is shown on the stock exchanges, is totally without logic (based on the winds or should I say whims of the traders). Value can, in large part, be determined objectively, but requires a lot more work and patience than the price of a stock or trying to determine (timing) what the "price" will be in the short term. Stocks go in cycles, up and down. Basically when we have gloom and doom where everyone thinks the sky is falling, we are approaching a time to but. When the opposite occurs ("gold can only go up" because ... add your reason here), the cycle is about to change the negative direction. Be patient, do your homework, don't be swayed by the current negative psychology, and be an INVESTOR.
Judging by the sentiment on this blog and other places, we may be approaching a time to buy. No one can "time" the market which is why traders eventually get defeated. However, I am always skeptical of anyone who believes that they can time the market so I agree that Altucher may have a lot of hot air. Be patient, do your homework and be Be an investor. Don't try to time the whole market or even an individual company's stock price. I remember the gloom and doom as the market approached the bottom in 2000 (the dot bust) and before that in the 90's when we had the "savings and loan crisis". The bottoms happened just when the negative sentiment was peaking. But those who were investors were eventually rewarded. There is a big difference between an investor and a trader. An investor should be looking for value in a longer time frame (3-5 years). A trader is just looking for opportunity for quick returns. However, be careful about buying the "market" as opposed to individual companies (diversified across industries). There is also a difference between the "value" of a stock (or any financial instrument for that matter) and it's price. Value is more driven by the fundamentals of the entity and the expected future cash flows or appreciation (which is really only derived from the expectation of future cash flows of an investment. Whereas price, which is what is shown on the stock exchanges, is totally without logic (based on the winds or should I say whims of the traders). Value can, in large part, be determined objectively, but requires a lot more work and patience than the price of a stock or trying to determine (timing) what the "price" will be in the short term. Stocks go in cycles, up and down. Basically when we have gloom and doom where everyone thinks the sky is falling, we are approaching a time to but. When the opposite occurs ("gold can only go up" because ... add your reason here), the cycle is about to change the negative direction. Be patient, do your homework, don't be swayed by the current negative psychology, and be an INVESTOR.
In regard to "Yahoo Finance User"s comments regarding the Dow Jones being heavily weighted by financials like C and BAC: The DJIA is a price weighted index (meaning that the higher the price of a stock, the more weight it has). Meaning: C, at 16/17 a share and BAC at 24 have considerably less impact on the DJIA than a stock like XOM or CVX. In reference to Altucher's comments about the Dow, I think he has a point.
Cripes!! Most of the comments make more sense than James!! LOL!!
This guy isn't getting any of my money to invest; Right now I'm digging my foxhole ever deeper, waiting for Freddy and Fanny to blow up and for an investment bank or two to go belly-up. No way have we reached a bottom.
The knife is halfway to the floor. Best to let it land before attempting to pick it up.
This guy isn't getting any of my money to invest; Right now I'm digging my foxhole ever deeper, waiting for Freddy and Fanny to blow up and for an investment bank or two to go belly-up. No way have we reached a bottom.
Just because its cheap doesn't mean it is a bargin. Things can and will get even cheaper. So far we have about $400 billion written down, projections for total write down is about $1.1 low end to $2 tillion high end. So even on a conservative estimates, we still have well over $500 billion in writedowns.
Geez some of these high paid Wall Street guys are clueless. The country is facing structural headwinds its never confronted before. If this were just a run of the mill recession I'd agree, but the housing market is not coming back to the extent that many think it will, high gas prices are here to stay and the business models for many of the large financial institutions are broken. Inflation is considerably higher than the govt will acknowledge and job losses should continue so I don't know how this kid has everything all figured out. Like I said, these Wall Street wizards always confuse luck for brains. How much you want to bet he said things were "cheap" 1500 points ago lol.
Since WW II there has now been 12 bears. The average is 14 months and 30 % decline. We are roughly 8-9 months in and down 20 + % on this one. So is there more to go? Probably, but valuations are reasonable (not cheap) at 14x next years reduced EPS estimates. Back out Financials and earnings are not that bad. With the Dow and S+P each being about 16 % in Financials that sector will make all things look ugly for those just focusing in on the indices. Dig a little deeper and there are opportunities. Just tread smartly.
I can predict with near certainty that in the next six months the market will either go up, go down, or stay about the same. mar my words!
Invest in his fund, he has a large Porsche payment due.
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robertp - Thursday July 10, 2008 01:48PM EDT
Cheap if they could keep up earnings growth, not only can't companies do that but earnings will PLUMMET next year. Expect DOW 8,000 next year. James Altucher put a tent over your circus!