Wednesday, December 30, 2009, 1:57PM ET - U.S. Markets close in 2 hours and 3 minutes.
Financials stocks have come back in favor in the past 24 hours thanks to better-than-expected earnings from Wells Fargo yesterday and JPMorgan today.
Certainly the news is not all good. Even JPMorgan's "better-than-expected" earnings were down more than 50% vs. year-ago levels. Plus, CEO Jamie Dimon had more words of caution for those once again trying to pick a "bottom" in the group.
"Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress," Dimon said in a statement.
Thanks to the sector's bounce -- undoubtedly aided by the SEC's crackdown on naked shorting of related stocks -- many financial firms may now get an opportunity to recapitalize at something other than rock-bottom prices. The problem is that most banks, brokers and -- most notably -- GSEs still have tons of toxic securities on their books, which means still more write-downs and pressure on capital ratios ahead.
That's especially true if Dimon's cautious comments prove prescient. Given his stellar track record through this downturn to date, you'd think more market players would pay attention to Wall Street's "new king."
Instead, they appear to be largely ignoring his warning, yet again.
Keep up the good work, guys. Both of you make a GREAT team. This will probably be another classic run-of-the mill "clearing rally". I fail to see how we will get over 11,700 on the Dow before the next wave of bad news begins. Sep/Oct could be a very stressful time for the markets. Remember, like Jim Rogers says. "In a bear market, all financial stocks go to $8." Interesting times...
How quickly we forget. Didn't a very large bank just fail on Monday? J.P. Morgan is not the norm. Part of this is the Bear Stearns bump. They got to cannibalize the best performing units of BSC. Now they are suddenly #1 in IB fees. That's a shrinking market right now. That growth came from somewhere - either BSC or another bank. Enjoy the rally.
Minor point maybe, but did the year over year numbers take into account the $360 million in profits that Bear Stearns made in Q2 of 2007?
Jamie Dimon is a hack and slash cost cutter and has provided no real value or growth to JPM. Anyone can cut costs, but it takes a true leader and innovator to grow a business. Jamie Dimon is not an innovator but a hack who got a break. I predict he will be led out in disgrace in the next 2 years. He should not even be allowed to manage a little league team let alone the world's second largest bank. Take a pay cut, grow the business, and innovate or leave JPM the hack that you are. The only one getting rich is you, not the shareholders or the employees. You are a self serving loser.
Only 17 financial stocks are covered by the new 30-day short selling rules issued by SEC. The 17 must be the primary dealers directly with FED & US Treasury. So, all others are on their own without same protections? Sounds like favoritism/cronyism. Hmmm...look out below!
When will stop hearing all of this gloom and doom and start hearing some upbeat stories? We want good news...shove the bad!
It got nothing to do with financial earnings or FED bailout assurances. Risky investors just got nervous of oil bust, causing for a correction in past two days. Once, oil rally again, financial will be in a mess again!
well the worst is yet to come.. just to a litttle favour. on charts there is an option to make standard deviation lines. if your choose daily data and have 30 years on chart. and for every year have that standard deviation line , you will find a long term trend. the stocks are supposed to be same or falling even next year .. basically we are going to see lot of consolidation now.
WRT Financials - doesn't anyone read research reports or look at adat anymore? The subprime mortgage resets will peak Aug - Sep this year with foreclosure peak lagging behind resets between 4 to 12 month. Then sharp drop in defaults (but not eliminated) mid-2009 where we will hear the big chorus singing the good times are here again. But the Monster Under the Bed will rear its ugly head again mid-2010 when the Option Adjustable Rate, Alt-A, and Jumbo Prime, and Agency mortgages begin to reset just when everyone's credit cards are maxxed out. The second default wave starting 2010 will be as big if not bigger than the Subprime wave. Remember, Subprime was just one loan product - there are several more out there ready to implode. These people declaring and end to this mess are either idiots or paid to do so.
Amazing, market goes up when news isn't as bad as expected. Still its bad news but it is disconcerting when market reacts in such a desperate way. Inescapable fact: Residential real estate is continuing its fall across the board with no end in sight. These values are the collateral for those 'creative' financing bundles, most of which lie hidden in the shadows, well off the balance sheets and away from regulator and investor eyes. Stir in the fall of commercial real estate and strain on credit card debt and all the happy talk in the world will not make it better. Perception can only be reality until someone looks up and says' the emporer has no clothes'. I wish you all well in this morass.
All this euphoria in 24 hours. Relax, nothing will get signifigantly better until energy gets straightened out.
i think we are definitely headed lower. look at piper jaffrey - they had worse than expected loss and gave poor guidance for the rest of the year, yet the stock has gone up 25% over the last 2 days...ridiculous. the underlying economy has not changed, folks. this is a suckers rally.
This is not about emotion or "good" and "bad" news. For me, it doesn't make a difference what Wall Street does. It's what the consumer is doing that will effect everything and as long as the "little person" is finding fuel and food becoming a problem, preventing him from meeting obligations, there will be a downturn eventually.
This is not about emotion or "good" and "bad" news. For me, it doesn't make a difference what Wall Street does. It's what the consumer is doing that will effect everything and as long as the "little person" is finding fuel and food becoming a problem, preventing him from meeting obligations, there will be a downturn eventually.
The market is schizophrenic. Compulsive behavior, not thinking through consequences doesn't make for good market decisions. A great deal of money will be lost before this id over. Look where foreign investment is going and ask yourself why.
Now all of a sudden congress can't wait to save us (with our tax money).
Well, I do agree some point stated by Johnny Ike. Maybe Johnny is too optimism but isn't it we need this positive optimism for the current market condition? How you know when is the market going to be bottom? How you predict is good time to buy? Is that because when market analyst give comment is good time to buy and you all agree with it as a follower? How you can aware oil price going to soar to US 200? Has this be happen? Yes, No? No body can predict the market how it going to be in next min or even next second..... If you have confidence about the stocks that you buying and have excess cash, well I would say this is good time to step in market to buy some blue chip stocks. I'm believed govt will not let those banks going to bankcrupt as it will affect huge huge impact as ppl will start losing their job... so govt sure will inject fund into financial sector. People alway start buying when market rally... but no body dare to buy when market is in bear condition. We should treat this as a good opportunity to buy those cheaper stock which has good condition in financial annual report. If you take Citibank as example.... in the next 5 yrs maybe you won't see a price for US 14 dollar anymore...every business has their up trend and down trend cycle... it just depend on whether how you catch your opportunity. Good time to buy? Maybe.......
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__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday July 17, 2008 11:34AM EDT
After the long winding wild storm,financial sector see a sea of hope and the sky is turning blue.I mean all the trouble seem to subside b the good news from the result of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo yes he is right to be cautious but there is a tune of confidence. Will it be the crisis is about to fade away which the tide is turning.e simply say I am bullish.