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Oil to Hit $100: Good for Stocks, But Economic Damage 'Baked In'

Posted Jul 18, 2008 01:31pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession

After suffering an 11% drop in three days, crude prices rebounded back above $130 on Friday. But "the commodity trade is over" and oil is likely to hit $100 sooner rather than later, says Scott Bleier, president of HybridInvestors.com.

Bleier's view is that the bulk of oil's rise has been driven by Wall Street's penchant for taking trades to the extreme, and now traders are looking for "something new" to put their money into.

As with last time, Bleier and I disagree on the role of speculation vs. supply/demand in oil's rise, and, in the accompanying video, he's quick to dismiss the effect President Bush reaching out to Iran is having on crude.

One area where we do agree: A sharp decline in oil prices would likely help the stock market near-term (save energy stocks, which rebounded Friday amid strong results from Schlumberger); but it  won't help the economy right away. The damage from higher commodity prices is "baked in" for the next six to nine months, he says.

122 Comments

Rayster
Rayster - Friday July 18, 2008 01:53PM EDT

Oil price is highly unstable. Any tensions anywhere in the world will effect prices dramatically. There's just to many factors, ie war, terrorist attacks, natural disasters, political unrest or other growing economies with demand. Did anyone hear what Gore said? He is right on the money. There's nothing more I would like to see than those oil rich countries (which sponsors terrorism) go poor!!! Time to switch resources. I realized just about everything is dependant on oil which makes this so difficult.

Victor
Victor - Friday July 18, 2008 01:55PM EDT

I don't believe oil will retreat to around $100.00 per barrel. The US government has done little or nothing to ease the pain of the end consumer regarding high energy prices especially in gasoline and diesel. Diesel is less costly to refine than gasoline but it leads the pack in cost per gallon. Let's face it. The oil companies are very powerful. I believe it was back in 1993 when Chevron bought the rights from General Motors for the battery technology to their electric car. Now why do you think Chevron bought these rights? Why do you think you see hybrids instead of all electric cars? The technology was there back in 1993 when GM had their electric cars on the road in California. But the oil companies flexed their muscles and put an end to California's zero emission law. Oil goes up and goes back down but we continue to see a lower high. This price gouging by the oil companies will continue and if we are lucky we might see some temporary relief in some falling oil prices. High oil prices are here to stay.

ThomasK
ThomasK - Friday July 18, 2008 01:55PM EDT

Scott Bleier is one of those Fox network "experts" who can't keep his right-wing politics separate from his stock market opinion. I tune into those Saturday morning stock shows because I'm interested in investing, however, the participants' agenda seems to be more focused on bashing left-wing, bleeding-heart, tree-hugging liberals than on investing. I wouldn't trust Scott Bleier any further than I could throw him.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 18, 2008 02:00PM EDT

yeah, that's right... we did need some more short sellers on the commodity

Ron
Ron - Friday July 18, 2008 02:06PM EDT

Drink more Wine at Restaurants. Now that my friends, will stimulate the economy!! It may even stimulate your man hood!!

- Friday July 18, 2008 02:06PM EDT

Oil prices will come down. After that they will go up. After that down. Then up. Then down. Business cycles happen all the time. To those doomsdayers I say "do your Homework!! The sky is not falling. America will be OK"

davidb
davidb - Friday July 18, 2008 02:07PM EDT

a nice guy, and i like his politics, but his stock picks and market calls on the fox shows seem to mostly lose money - and we already have cramer around to do that for us.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday July 18, 2008 02:10PM EDT

Please god make gas cheaper......

T.K
T.K - Friday July 18, 2008 02:13PM EDT

I agree with lorne80303 best be prepared and also note that if most of the rise in oil prices were induced by back room traders then they of course should exposed and dropped off in Cuba. Course anyone can see that supply will not be able to keep up with growing demand even if the U.S. reduces demand as many other nations are growing and demand oil, expensive or not.

Vinny
Vinny - Friday July 18, 2008 02:13PM EDT

If anyone thinks oil is going to $100 fiat dollars a barrel please contact me, I have a bridge for sale and will take payment in gold or silver. The currency is being destroyed because there is no other option. What happens if they raise the rates to boost the dollar? Oil prices are due to a decoupling from the dollar and an intentional weakening of the dollar by the fed. They say they want a strong dollar but it's not truthful. It's been 2 days of some positive news with serious negative things happing in the shadows. All of the fundamentals point to more inflation, more dollar weakness which enforces higher oil prices. Gold and silver buyers are still buying....in fact this was a great chance to stock up before the next jump. We've seen 5% of this iceberg so far. Too big to fail? Yea just like the titanic.

Vinny
Vinny - Friday July 18, 2008 02:14PM EDT

If anyone thinks oil is going to $100 fiat dollars a barrel please contact me, I have a bridge for sale and will take payment in gold or silver. The currency is being destroyed because there is no other option. What happens if they raise the rates to boost the dollar? Oil prices are due to a decoupling from the dollar and an intentional weakening of the dollar by the fed. They say they want a strong dollar but it's not truthful. It's been 2 days of some positive news with serious negative things happing in the shadows. All of the fundamentals point to more inflation, more dollar weakness which enforces higher oil prices. Gold and silver buyers are still buying....in fact this was a great chance to stock up before the next jump. We've seen 5% of this iceberg so far. Too big to fail? Yea just like the titanic.

T.K
T.K - Friday July 18, 2008 02:16PM EDT

I agree with lorne80303 best be prepared and also note that if most of the rise in oil prices were induced by back room traders then they of course should exposed and dropped off in Cuba. Course anyone can see that supply will not be able to keep up with growing demand even if the U.S. reduces demand as many other nations are growing and demand oil, expensive or not. Course we know IRAN will be a huge effect on oil one way or another even if Bush Oil invades.

- Friday July 18, 2008 02:21PM EDT

Go Scotty Go! I love this guy... he hates Wall St. like I do

raymond
raymond - Friday July 18, 2008 02:24PM EDT

I like his optimism, but it is meant for the gullible.Oil will come down really when we all reduce consumption by decreasing the natl speed limit to 55-60mpg trucks 55mpg. RAY

vjosh80
vjosh80 - Friday July 18, 2008 02:26PM EDT

Between 2002-2007 oil prices $25-60. Current price at 129.46

matthew s
matthew s - Friday July 18, 2008 02:30PM EDT

Oil prices will never go back down to $30-50 range. And, that is a good thing. It will force our leaders, ( if we have any) to find alternative energy sources. If gasoline goes below $3 again - then out come the SUV'S. We just have to swallow reality. We will all be driving plug-in puddle jumpers. Or, more efficient Autos less frequently.

- Friday July 18, 2008 02:32PM EDT

Oil may drop to near $100 because IMO a lot of the recent surge in price was due to speculation. However, this will just encourage an increase in usage and supplies will remain tight until application of alternative energy becomes much more widespread. The benefit of these higher gasoline prices in the U.S. is that it is finally forcing the public to drive less, use public transportation, and dump their SUV's.

bill
bill - Friday July 18, 2008 02:33PM EDT

The wild swings in commodities such as oil that have been experienced during the past months reiterates the true effect speculation has on the market. Though speculation has put the limelight on oil, supply and demand will ultimately rule. This is proven by the steep rise in price of a gallon of gasoline and the subsequent decline in demand. The damage has been done to the US economy which will take many months or years to flush out. Price inflation will rule - as the price of oil effects all aspects of the economy - demand across the board for all product catagories will wane.

Rayster
Rayster - Friday July 18, 2008 02:33PM EDT

Good point vjosh80!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 18, 2008 02:42PM EDT

How much damage will wall street/hedge funds do???? driven more people from their homes than ever...severe damage to our entire banking industry with the housing scam.....now the hurt from oil( all while they claim its not them and lobbying to stop the investigation) which has hurt all of america...They are driving corn to starve the world...This unbelievable greed makes the movie Wall Street look like a fairy tale compared to these guys....the damage to the people and country is beyond belief...Who are the real bad guys??? should we be in IraQ or Wall street to defend our quality of life...look at the damage

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