Roubini: Bear Market Only Half Over, But It's Not Armageddon

chrisj29ks I believe you are very right about energy renewable resourses. We don't have long to get off our duff and just get started. Finite energy resourses will continue to create insurmountable problems.

another ravi batra? we need rate hikes. Need to slash price on real estate to unload bank inventory especially in NYC. .A new RTC . build a real economy not lurch from one crooked scam to another.

Hey ratdawgbtch - as soon as you figure out how to install your "flex-capacitor" into your car, just let me know. We might need to stop rebuilding 3rd world nations and pay attention to our own issues before anything else can happen.

Much of this sell off was based on media dramatization and over-reaction by people that invest emotionally rather than rationally. While there are definitely problems in the market, there were none so severe as to justify the recent levels, especially in the financials. I think we will see the market stabilize, flatten out, and gradually climb back as more and more people realize the sky is NOT, in fact, falling.

Hard commodities do not devalue, erode, inflate, deflate, etc. History shows that in all economic bad times those holding physical assets in hard commodities survive and prosper. Those who don't hold hard assets are at the whims of government and business... if the worst happens, don't think your credit card will bail you out. No one will take it. Be smart now. Don't wait for the run on the bank.

Hey ModernDay... This is as downbeat as the feelgood financial news is allowed to get.

Good comment- 250 bank failure vs 5 but look at their sizes comparison. IndyMac was the 2nd largest in History. No jobs, no credit, no growth, maybe not amagedon but it sure feels like

the current state of the econonmy depends on the type of bear.....black bear, polar bear, brown bear or even a teddy bear.....if it is the latter then we can expect to rebound in a couple of months......dont lose sleep on this nyu lunatic he can't even fix his tie properly.....the government should apply austrian economics... let the fittest survive if this is really a true open market economy.....let fannie and freddie expire so the most financially and fiscally fit instutions survive stop resuscitating the already dead

Frankly - It's a bit of a mix to me - I live in California, and I look at the construction market as the canary for the economy - and not just the housing market, which seems to be all that anyone wants to talk about. The commercial construction market is still fairly active for larger projects - the smaller ones are on hold due tothe residual credit crunch. But all in all, commercial and public works construction is still going strong and picking up workers from the housing industry. Also - let's be honest about MI and OH - the US is no longer a primarily pmanufactured goods economy - it is service, intellectual property, small business and infrastucture that supports us now. I think the good professor has shot his wad - and he realizes that his previous projections didn't take into account the ability of the US (and world) economy to reconfigure and rehabilitate problem areas.

ever notice almost every analyst on CNBC is underweight what ever sector is doing the worse? How many of these guys liked the banks a month ago? Now they are buying banks and underweight in??. Why OIL of course. What does this mean?? Simple..they all lie.

Folks, apart from soaring commodity and energy prices (which are partially the result of an unprecedented population boom in the last 100 years that this planet has never seen due to cheap and easy energy), we have also a money system (FIAT dollars - dollars based on debt) which is corrupt and designed to enslave and make us all debtors. The Federal Reserve is not a public corporation like many of you may believe. It is not subject to any public audits and is owned by the private banking system. The US' and other countries' financial systems have been hijacked by Central Banks who work in collusion with each other using the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) and the IMF. Basically a money system that is based on debt is based on nothing. If I owe you money, and I pay you with fiat dollars (e.g. USD), I'm paying a debt with a debt. That does not make sense. Therefore, in order for current USD currency to exist, it needed to have been lent to someone. Instead of basing currency on the actual measured productivity of a nation, USD currency measures the total level of debt of a nation. Money is currently created out of thin air by the Federal Reserve. The Gov't needs more money. So it creates a bond (a piece of paper or an electronic version of it) and gives that bond to the Federal Reserve. The Fed then writes that in as an "asset" and then magically pays the gov't with the equivalent dollar value into the gov't's account. The person or institution that gets to spend these dollars first, gets full benefit of the money. Over time, the money gets diluted as it gets deposited into commercial banks. These commercial banks are now allowed to create up to 10x or more the amount of money (depending on the http://www.occ.treas.gov/ policies) they have on account. Therefore, if you deposit $1000, at the end of the loan/debt cycle, $10,000 are now in circulation. That further dilutes the value of the money and causes constant rising prices (i.e. inflation). Currently prices are rising, unemployment is increasing (because of foreclosers, corporate losses), stagnation, etc. Many of these problems can all be attributed to poor credit lending practices and an unsound money system. Currently the dollars you use *do not* measure actual wealth but debt! This is a scam that has been perpetrated on the American People and the people of the world over the last couple hundred years. Andrew Jackson (ex-President) fought the Central banks of the day and refused the idea of the Federal Reserve over many years for this very reason. The system is predicated on the belief that resources are infinite, energy is cheap and easily available and that there will be more and more slave workers to pay taxes to cover the burgeoning piles of debt. For further reading and education, please refer to the following links: How Banks Create Money Out of Thin Air: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIo7IYVCIXM The Money Masters: http://www.themoneymasters.com/ http://youtube.com/watch?v=k3VUsNPTAV0 Money As Debt: http://www.moneyasdebt.net/ http://youtube.com/watch?v=qt_GhcQ5EtU http://paulgrignon.netfirms.com/MoneyasDebt/references.htm

Folks, apart from soaring commodity and energy prices (which are partially the result of an unprecedented population boom in the last 100 years that this planet has never seen due to cheap and easy energy), we have also a money system (FIAT dollars - dollars based on debt) which is corrupt and designed to enslave and make us all debtors. The Federal Reserve is not a public corporation like many of you may believe. It is not subject to any public audits and is owned by the private banking system. The US' and other countries' financial systems have been hijacked by Central Banks who work in collusion with each other using the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) and the IMF. Basically a money system that is based on debt is based on nothing. If I owe you money, and I pay you with fiat dollars (e.g. USD), I'm paying a debt with a debt. That does not make sense. Therefore, in order for current USD currency to exist, it needed to have been lent to someone. Instead of basing currency on the actual measured productivity of a nation, USD currency measures the total level of debt of a nation. Money is currently created out of thin air by the Federal Reserve. The Gov't needs more money. So it creates a bond (a piece of paper or an electronic version of it) and gives that bond to the Federal Reserve. The Fed then writes that in as an "asset" and then magically pays the gov't with the equivalent dollar value into the gov't's account. The person or institution that gets to spend these dollars first, gets full benefit of the money. Over time, the money gets diluted as it gets deposited into commercial banks. These commercial banks are now allowed to create up to 10x or more the amount of money (depending on the http://www.occ.treas.gov/ policies) they have on account. Therefore, if you deposit $1000, at the end of the loan/debt cycle, $10,000 are now in circulation. That further dilutes the value of the money and causes constant rising prices (i.e. inflation). Currently prices are rising, unemployment is increasing (because of foreclosers, corporate losses), stagnation, etc. Many of these problems can all be attributed to poor credit lending practices and an unsound money system. Currently the dollars you use *do not* measure actual wealth but debt! This is a scam that has been perpetrated on the American People and the people of the world over the last couple hundred years. Andrew Jackson (ex-President) fought the Central banks of the day and refused the idea of the Federal Reserve over many years for this very reason. The system is predicated on the belief that resources are infinite, energy is cheap and easily available and that there will be more and more slave workers to pay taxes to cover the burgeoning piles of debt. For further reading and education, please refer to the following links: How Banks Create Money Out of Thin Air: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIo7IYVCIXM The Money Masters: http://www.themoneymasters.com/ http://youtube.com/watch?v=k3VUsNPTAV0 Money As Debt: http://www.moneyasdebt.net/ http://youtube.com/watch?v=qt_GhcQ5EtU http://paulgrignon.netfirms.com/MoneyasDebt/references.htm

All this talk about making bad loans. What bad loans? From the broker and investor's points of view, those were GOOD risk-free decisions--as long as the taxpayers pay for all the risks! Are we going to let that happen? It looks like it. The free market is over. What our leaders call managing the economy is really MANIPULATION. Get rid of them. Put Libertarians in charge.

Okay, here is the skinny! Our Government, no matter who or how they want to pass the buck, has failed us yet again! Are we in a bear market and a recession? Yes, and to deny it it is silly. Now, here is the part where we as investors in the market have to make a tough decision. Do we see light at the end of the tunnel or not? Do we believe our Government can make the right decisions as it relates to Energy, the current Financial crisis and the Housing debacle to pull us through within the next 12-18 months? If you think yes, then you begin to pick up shares of many of the very solid companies that have been beaten down. If no, then sit with cash and a few stocks you must own (mine are Apple and RIMM!) until you feel more comfortable. Remember, with the election only a few months away and the Democrats controlling the media, you will get a boat-load of bad news in order to strengthen their candidates position in the poles. My biggest concern remain our government's inability to get anything constructive done on a proactive basis. All they really need to do is what is right for the large majority of the American public and eveything else would fall into place. Unfortunately, as the majority of politicians are either corrupt and/or self centered ego-maniacs, the possibility of getting them to think about what's right for this country instead of themselves and/or their party is remote at best. F.T.M.F!!

This is all very simple....our government has been spending FAR more than they take in for decades....the average consumer spends far MORE than they make.....this is all going to hit the fan....the almighty dollar is going to take a dramatic fall down....the amount of debt weighing on the dollar will eventually be realized.....

Thanks Nouriel, did men in dark suits pay you a visit? are you "dumbing down" to keep the panic to a minimum?

The market will be fine. I think history has proved that the free market will always recover and invent solutions to problems. We do not need to tax oil companies more. Corporations in America do not pay taxes as it is. They pass those onto us. So how will taxing them more help. Alternative energy is great, and I am all for it. But, there has to something done now. Newt Gingrich gives a lecture about a 3 step plan that is hands down better than anything coming out of Washington. The Repubs want to drill and not invest as much in alternative energy. The Dems want us to build environmentally safe fires and cuddle with the Porcupine Caraboo for heat. Neither side an energy policy. I favor the Repubs since, at least with them, we will have oil. With the Dems we have nothing. Regardless of energy, the market will be fine. Probably not next month, but 12-24 months from now we will all be okay and much more educated fiscally.

My personal opinion is if these people would get to work solving the economic problems of this country instead of spending all their time talking about how bad it is here, we as a country might see our way out of this mess we are in.

chrisj29ks, as most people do, thinks that alternate fuel sources and/or technologies for producing electricity will have a big impact on oil imports--wrong-- only 2% of our oil consumption is used for power production--is it cost effective to replace the small amount of oil fueled power generation-- no--you not only need to build replacement power, but you need to compensate the oil burners for shutting down the plants -- using pckens big wind farm (4,000 megawatts for $10 billion vs 4,000 mega watts of coal fuelled plants for $4 billion), replacing a significant % of our 986,000 megawatt capacity will be extremely expensive note:these comments are about impacting imported oil and cost not environmental impact

The reason he does not predict end of times is he wants to be invited to be on these shows and gain subscribers. Anybody who calls for the worst is automatically panned and blacklisted as a crazy and therefore his message never makes it to the news, or in the case of a non-tenured professor in the heart of Wall Street's nursery, he could even lose his job. Ergo, saying its really bad has more impact.