Sunday, November 29, 2009, 3:28AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
The broker/dealer business model is "inherently unstable" and the four remaining major firms will not be independent in a few years, says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU's Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor.
Embattled Lehman Brothers is likely to seek a buyer "within months," Roubini says. Lehman Brothers ceasing to be independent is not such a shocking outcome, but Roubini ultimately sees a similar outcome for Goldman, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley.
The problem, he says, is that broker/dealers use the same model as banks -- borrow short and lend long -- only they borrow on even shorter timeframes, use more leverage, and don't have the kind of government backstop banks enjoy.
In the wake of Bear Stearns' demise, which showed how brokers are vulnerable to a "run on the bank" if they can't get overnight funding, the Fed temporarily opened its discount window to brokerage firms. But making that option permanent means submitting to the same kind of regulation and capital requirements as banks; that, in turn, means a very different business model -- and much lower profitability -- for Wall Street firms, whose current business model is "not viable," he says.
With U.S. financial giants like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America dealing with internal issues, the most likely buyers are international financial firms or sovereign wealth funds, Roubini says. But unlike in 2007, foreigners are not going to settle for preferred shares, and non-voting rights next time around.
That raises the questions: Is America ready for (true) foreign ownership of major financial institutions? And do we have a choice?
These greedy suits have painted themselves in a corner. The problem with that is: they have placed the US on a road to 3rd World status, if you can believe that. The US will slowly be eaten up and chewed up. Hell, just today big GE is marrying up with Dubai and their government supported companies to do business. Even GE needs CAPITAL. The US Corps have taken all the money they can get from the small investor and now they need to team up with the people who have the real Gold. It's a fine mess, Ollie.....and chickens do come home to roost, don't they. I think our business schools need a new model also.
I have posted twice on Yahoo and neither one has ever shown up. Am I being censored? What up?
Dont' sleep people...it's all working according to plan. One world govt...you know the New World Order! get ur silver and gold now...
Should have listened to Peter Schiff years ago...
Not sure I agree.. American Manifest Destiny runs deep and I can not see the citizens at large quing up at a Canadian bank, buying gas from a Russian station and buying a car from Hugo! This is a tough place, but the Japanese had us in WW2 if they had only pushed ahead.. but they didn't, so, likely or not, American ingenuity and guts will pull our country through this mess... However, it is about time we had a government that paid down the debt and the citizenry needs to live within their means .. start saving and putting money away!
Is it my mistake or does that sound like a little reality in the news?
Fear mongering gets you nowhere maicaray. Seriously now...the US is not a 3rd world country and it not going to be in our lifetime. We may not dominate the financial world as we have in the past, but saying we are going to be a 3rd world country? That's nonsense man.
This was all planned. The result are fewer lenders thus leaving the balance of money control with the Fed and their minions. This happened after the 1929 crash where thousands of banks became hundreds overnight. These days there aren't more than 10 real players and voila, now there are 2 or 3. Guess who controls all of that ? The same elite who control the medical, military, education and food cartels. It's all about control folks, engineer a doomsday for the middle class, wipe it out, devalue the dollar, put the nation into a panic and BOOM, offer a solution..............new currency and North American Union. Euro, African, Asian and North American Unions are easier to control than over 300 countries. Nothing like this, the mortgage, the credit crisis, massive debt, massive govt' debt, food shortages, oil prices or anything of that magnitude just "happens". Some will see the logic here and most will continue to watch reality shows. No joke people.
Any program or comments that has Blodget involved has no integrity.
If Roubini is right, there is going to be a mighty shakeup of financial institutions over the next few months in the USA, and foreign takeovers of some hallowed and revered long-standing companies, or bankruptcy and liquidation and instability. The former scenario is better than the latter for stock markets, since it will be done presumably in an orderly fashion. Reminds me a little bit about the sale of Pebble Beach Golf Club to the Japanese several years ago and the impact of that sale on the American psyche when that treasured piece of land ended up being owned by foreigners.
Go Henry! he's taking his second chance and doing a fine job.
Has he been asleep for the past ten years? Foreign countries all ready own us via our financial debt to them. The amount that each tax payer pays in interest to China alone each year is enough to put a "Sold Sign" on everyone's back. Now would you like me to get into how much we are all ready owned by oil producing middle east countries or nuff said?
America has gotten so deep in debt that we are going to see a giant sell off of our major corporations etc. This comes as no surprise at all. The American citizens are a broke as the country they belong to. I agree save up all the gold, silver, commodities you can get because at least they will hold their value when all else comes crashing down. I also agree Blodget should be in jail. If he were an ordinary person like one of us he wouldn't be setting out there free. Someone needs to let Yahoo know how we feel about it. What kind of financial expert is he an expert crook?
Wow qtrade that is some insightful stuff. sounds a little "big brothers coming to get me" on the outside but im 100% on your ship. Question is, can the common man do anything about it? No not really.
If you have $10 and leverage it 9 times, how much do you have? $100? NO! That is a Wall Street answer. The truth is found on main street and it is that you are in debit $90 and owned by someone else. Some are about to learn this truth, but are wriggling hard to avoid it.
Doom and gloom again.... This commentary is already out of date. Can these guys not see that the market has already rallied. The boil (oil price spike) has been lanced. The underlying problem has always been the oil crisis, not the so called credit crunch. Expect these guys to start talking up the markets soon. That's the time to take profits, not now!
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Allen L - Tuesday July 22, 2008 03:32PM EDT
this guy knows his stuff