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'They're All Toast': Roubini Says Brokers, Even Goldman, Can't Stay Independent

Posted Jul 22, 2008 05:09pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
Related: GS, LEH, MS, MER, JPM, BAC, C

The broker/dealer business model is "inherently unstable" and the four remaining major firms will not be independent in a few years, says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU's Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor.

Embattled Lehman Brothers is likely to seek a buyer "within months," Roubini says. Lehman Brothers ceasing to be independent is not such a shocking outcome, but Roubini ultimately sees a similar outcome for Goldman, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley.

The problem, he says, is that broker/dealers use the same model as banks -- borrow short and lend long -- only they borrow on even shorter timeframes, use more leverage,  and don't have the kind of government backstop banks enjoy.

In the wake of Bear Stearns' demise, which showed how brokers are vulnerable to a "run on the bank" if they can't get overnight funding, the Fed temporarily opened its discount window to brokerage firms. But making that option permanent means submitting to the same kind of regulation and capital requirements as banks; that, in turn, means a very different business model -- and much lower profitability -- for Wall Street firms, whose current business model is "not viable," he says.

With U.S. financial giants like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America dealing with internal issues, the most likely buyers are international financial firms or sovereign wealth funds, Roubini says. But unlike in 2007, foreigners are not going to settle for preferred shares, and non-voting rights next time around.

That raises the questions: Is America ready for (true) foreign ownership of major financial institutions? And do we have a choice?

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