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Roubini: More Than $1 Trillion Needed to Solve Housing Crisis

Posted Jul 22, 2008 09:42pm EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has been putting on a full-court press in the last 24 hours, making the case for his plan to shore-up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"I would rather not be in the position of asking for extraordinary authorities to support the GSEs," Paulson said in a speech Tuesday in NYC.  "But I am playing the hand that I have been dealt. There is a need to support efforts that strengthen Fannie and Freddie's ability to continue to play their important role in financing mortgages and in our capital markets more broadly."

The timing of Paulson's speech -- and various and sundry media appearances -- is not coincidental. This week, Congress is expected to vote on housing legislation that includes Paulson's plan, which a GAO report said is likely to cost the government $25 billion.

But $25 billion -- or even the GAO's worst-case $100 billion estimate -- pales in comparison to the cost of doing nothing, says Nouriel Roubini, NYU professor and chairman of RGE Monitor.

"We have to find a solution where government intervention prevents a disorderly outcome" in the housing market that leads to a "systemic banking crisis," Roubini says.

The housing bill, which earmarks $300 billion to backstop mortgages after lenders agree to lower mortgage payments, is "a step in the right direction" but "doesn't do enough," he says, predicting the government will ultimately need to spend more than $1 trillion.

Roubini's main concern stems from a view that the "housing recession is not bottoming by any standards," in contrast to hopeful comments from Paulson on Fox News and Barron's last weekend.

The economist believes U.S. home prices will ultimately fall 30% from their peak -- vs. 18% to date according to the S&P Case-Shiller Index -- "before bottoming out some point in 2010."

In the interim, the negative wealth effect of declining home values and increase in "underwater" mortgages will lead to more Americans walking away from their homes. Such "jingle mail" threatens to ultimately cost $1 trillion in credit losses, wiping out 75% of the capital of U.S. financial institutions, Roubini warns.

It is that "disorderly" outcome Roubini says the government cannot afford to let happen. With "the charade" that Fannie and Freddie weren't already government agencies over, he believes a nationalization of the 50% of mortgages not owned or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie will be necessary, and the Frank-Dodd Bill is a small step down that road.

From Roubini's view, nationalizing housing avoids the government having to nationalization the entire banking system, making it the lesser of two evils.

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382 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 22, 2008 05:52PM EDT

Does this mean the tax payer will need to spend even more to 'fix' this problem?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:00PM EDT

Housing market is a mess now

tim p
tim p - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:00PM EDT

How did this idiot become a professor? The flaws in his reasoning are abunant. Housing prices rose over 35% in three years. Roubini's analysis assumes every home was purchased in the last three years and is underwater. You can't fix stupid. Get out of the ivory tower of academics and into the real world.

vinayak
vinayak - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:04PM EDT

Whoever made money out of this crisis illegitimately must pay for it.

JohnF
JohnF - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:10PM EDT

Yes, the honest and responsible taxpayer will get screwed yet again.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:22PM EDT

Let's just go pull all of our money out of the bank now, just to be sure!!

Don
Don - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:23PM EDT

Roubini' is dead on. He has been dead on for the last 10 years.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:25PM EDT

I suspect that just about every US bank has a significant amount of GSE securities in its securities portfolio, relative to its capital. A default by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac would bring chaos to the US banking system and the FDIC would be left to pick up the pieces. I don't think Congress wants that. Too bad that so many politicians thought that home ownership was good for just about everyone, even people with low incomes who obviously could not afford to buy in many areas of the country.

mattd
mattd - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:25PM EDT

timpa, you can't fix stupid? You can't even spell abundant right...? Vonayak, who made money off this? The economy caused this and the lenders who "made all this money" are somehow going out of business.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:28PM EDT

A default by the GSE's would also cost foreign investors a tremendous amount of money and they would probably stop buying US Treasury bonds as a protest. You may not like the idea of a GSE bailout, but the alternatives appear to be much worse.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:36PM EDT

The fellows obviously a Communist, I'd rather see another Great Depression than give in to Marxist/Stalinist philosopy; Dems need to get the heck out of Washington before this country vanishes

dinh
dinh - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:40PM EDT

timpa, You also assumed those who bought years ago didn't leveraged to the hilt to buy more homes the last 3 years or to pay off debts. Personally, I know of a few who bought 8-10 years ago found themselves in negative equity right now.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:41PM EDT

The ripoff of America continues. Has anyone noticed that all these so called experts came from Goldman Sachs and that they along with the Bush-Cheney Oil Barons will come out of this worth Billions more than when they took office 8 years ago.

The R
The R - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:43PM EDT

There is a flaw. Back in 1979 when the Shah was in power it cost 25 cents to talk on a cell phone for 90 seconds. Now that same 25 cents buys three sticks of gum. I say bring the Shah back into power and we can begin to address why there has been such huge disintermediation of the global currency markets. Something has to change and drilling for natural gas from shale is not going to drive auto prices lower.

CaseyG
CaseyG - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:47PM EDT

Writing a blank check to Freddie and Fannie is hardly an orderly way to solve the problem. Why would they not do more of the same, knowing the taxpayers will cover any and all losses? They should be put under federal control and liquidated in an orderly fashion like any other failing bank.

Scott
Scott - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:50PM EDT

Let's not fool ourselves. The Fed just goes into war spending like a wild man and then lets all these greedy banking and lending fools rip the American people off. Now they will print more money and shore up the mess they let happen in the first place. Business as usual. One of these days the Ivory tower of Ignorant Academia and foolhardy fiscal policy will come crashing down like a Roman Empire house of cards. I will NOT CRY! Congress and Senate PULL YOUR HEADS OUT OF YOUR GREEDY #%$#$es!

Scott
Scott - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:51PM EDT

Let's not fool ourselves. The Fed just goes into war spending like a wild man and then lets all these greedy banking and lending fools (and many dummies who were holding excessive loans) rip the American people off. Now they will print more money and shore up the mess they let happen in the first place. Business as usual. One of these days the Ivory tower of Ignorant Academia and foolhardy fiscal policy will come crashing down like a Roman Empire house of cards. I will NOT CRY! Congress and Senate PULL YOUR HEADS OUT OF YOUR GREEDY #%$#$es!

Scott
Scott - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:52PM EDT

Let's not fool ourselves. The Fed just goes into war spending like a wild man and then lets all these greedy banking and lending fools (and many dummies who were holding excessive loans) rip the American people off. Now they will print more money and shore up the mess they let happen in the first place. Business as usual. One of these days the Ivory tower of Ignorant Academia and foolhardy fiscal policy will come crashing down like a Roman Empire house of cards. I will NOT CRY! Congress and Senate PULL YOUR HEADS OUT OF YOUR GREEDY #%$#$es!

MarkD
MarkD - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:52PM EDT

1st the majority of ppl don't know how to budget there money which means they don't deserve to own a house...Thanks Bill Clinton for changing the banking laws... 2nd this is why everyone can't be rich and dumb ppl don't deserve nice things 3rd why in the world is the goverment i.e. sally mae, fanny mac, securing loans for ppl with bad credit for up to 750,000 dollars??? The goverment shuldn't be competing with the banking industry to begin wit 4th let there houses default, rich ppl buy them and rent them back to them

Heroine Worshipper
Heroine Worshipper - Tuesday July 22, 2008 06:52PM EDT

Yes, you are accountable for the debt of the richest, & you'll pay off every cent of it even if it means slavery & cannibalism.

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