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Bouncing Banks: How $11B of Losses Is 'Good News' on Wall St.

Posted Jul 23, 2008 01:31pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Banking

Financial stocks were taking a breather Wednesday, which is to be expected after the group's ferocious rally. Heading into today, the Financial SPDR (XLF) had risen 31% in a five-day advance, culminating (perhaps) on Tuesday when huge losses were greeted as good news.

Five banks reporting results Tuesday -- Wachovia, Washington Mutual, SunTrust, Fifth Third, and Regions Financial -- posted quarterly losses of over $11 billion, yet saw their market-caps rise a collective $11.6 billion, with an average gain of 14%, the WSJ reports.

"Bad results are good when expectations are so low,'' Deutsche Bank's influential analyst Michael Mayo wrote Tuesday, comments that both summed up the mood and helped define it. "Real estate problems remain significant, but outside these areas problems have not yet spread in score or severity as much as feared.''

Further aiding sentiment: Both Wachovia's Robert Steel and Washington Mutual's Kerry Killinger declared their respective firms don't need to raise more capital, even after taking losses of $8.7 billion and $3.33 billion, respectively.

That's critical because one of the big fears on Wall Street prior to the recent rally (clearly aided by government intervention) is that financial institutions were susceptible to a "death spiral": That losses from bad debts would hurt capital ratios (a key measure of banks' health), forcing firms to sell stock at deep discounts, whereby diluting shareholders and making future capital raising very difficult (if not impossible) should bad-debt losses continue.

The problem with all the recent optimism is that we've heard the "this is the kitchen-sink quarter for banks" rationale repeatedly in the past year. Plus, the bulls are ignoring the cautious comments from AmEx's Ken Chenault and (more important) JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon -- again.

49 Comments

Phartknokker
Phartknokker - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:03PM EDT

quicmoves, thank you for the informative comment. And to everyone else, I enjoy reading all your comments. I am new to trading so I am learning from every source I can, including these Yahoo! Finance blogs.

jennifer g
jennifer g - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:05PM EDT

Can we get an "AMEN!" for Blood and Guts comment! I used to work at a regional bank, and I swear the suits would have meetings to set up future meetings for what they had discussed in their previous meetings? I wonder what they discuss in those meetings? Now I see that the stock price of my former employer is way, way, way down. Good luck to all!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:13PM EDT

It's all very disturbing and I worry for future generations. The US government, it's major investment institutions, and most of it's citizens refuse to act financially responsible. The bailouts act like morphine, softening the near term pain. But make no mistake, the patient is in seriously ill. Welcome to the great dislocaton of 2007, 2008, and beyond. The rise and fall of the US empire has begun.

charlotte Ratike
charlotte Ratike - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:20PM EDT

Wachovia is a winner!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:27PM EDT

If the FED dumped as much money and pushed the same buttons as they did to ward off Y2K, then after they see a rapid rise in consumer spending raise rates but not so agressive so fast. Greenie got to happy with seeing the tech bubble burst that he raised and raised rates without hearing the screems from the economy. An influx of cash would fix the problem. But lets look at half the fix. Greenspan retired so now only half the problem is left. When the Democrats win in 09 the other half of this economic mess will begin to be resolved. The noble thing for the Republicans to do in the interm is not leave their stinky draws in the middle of the floor when company comes over.

Bulldog
Bulldog - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:40PM EDT

If you're invested in the market, GET OUT NOW! Not tomorrow, NOW ! Put your money into Insurance co.Index Annuities, ( not Variable annuities ) Yeah, those are the safe-money products that freightens Wall Street more than anything, at least till they get their buddies at the SEC to make them a "security", then they'll get their $$$$$ and the peter-principle will rear up once again.

Jon
Jon - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:41PM EDT

So, how does this effect banks that have preserved themselves well, and for the most part not gotten involved in the sub prime investing? Wells fargo, US Bank to name a few. Where will this type of action put them in 3 or so years?

RutgersNJ
RutgersNJ - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:49PM EDT

It seems that everybody is mad pessimistic about the US economy. Try living in a 3rd world country mama's sons and daugthers!!. Don't take the US for granted. Be positive and optimistic!!

ElliotY
ElliotY - Wednesday July 23, 2008 04:57PM EDT

Stupid! Stupid! Stupid! Blah! Blah! Blah! The ONLY way OUT is through! Get ready for hyperinflation and buy gold and commodities! These two characters look and sound like two "Cramers" yapping away at each other. Idiotic!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 23, 2008 05:08PM EDT

So when do we finally stand up for ourselves?? Is it when gas is $6 or maybe $7 a gallon, when bread is $4 a loaf or when milk is finally $7 a gallon. How about 10% in unemployment? We are getting closer than you think, especially with talk of LAYOFFS around the country. Finances, stocks, bonds, gas, housing, credit cards, etc. it all has the same problems. We continue to take it and do nothing. The leaders we have including executive, legislative, etc. are looking out for #1, not the people they represent. In France they protest to get their way for the People. Here in America, we have forgotten that, Remember the Boston Tea Party?? "No Taxation without Representation", Let's get the crooks out of there. It's time we stand up to everyone and make a voice for ourselves...

thomas
thomas - Wednesday July 23, 2008 05:09PM EDT

everybody is a bear.time to start buying again

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 23, 2008 05:12PM EDT

I have concluded that 1. The more financial new you watch/read the more money you loose. 2. Never invest in a Mutual fund. Only Index based ETFs. 3. Finance professionals are worse than lawyers. What ever they say is a lie. 4. Financial sector is out there to steal your money don't let it even touch your money if you can. 5. No matter how careful you are in dealing with them, they will always make money in long run and you will always loose money in long run. Now coming back to this run since last few days, Its financials helping financials. They are the one to set the expectation,and have set it too low, so that their friends can beat the expectations

HOWARDG
HOWARDG - Wednesday July 23, 2008 05:13PM EDT

Time for a banking rereg and bankruptcy reorganization. Read the 19 no-naked list. It's the end of free enterprise game. More on ww.realcrash.com

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday July 23, 2008 05:21PM EDT

if the losses is on the bottom it means the stock will gradually recover including the revenue on the next financial report this time the recovery is slow but sure.If you are businessman How to do you fell that you see the end of the looses is in sight.In that case, are you happy or lonely.Is the a good news when you see the recover is in your sight. For me...I will be happy and that is a good news. Good news give boast to my moral.Not unless someone is Moron.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 23, 2008 05:59PM EDT

the possibly final dead cat bounce - the banks are reporting the writedowns as slow as they want to .they will beat expectation after expectation because those numbers are given beforehand - there is a reason the banks arent lending to each other -it is because they all know the losses given each quarter are a drop in the bucket the only ones who will clean up are the ones who are reporting their real numbers now (merrill lynch may be a good buy after next quarter ) all the others are just fudging the numbers and could have related losses for years because of it

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 23, 2008 06:07PM EDT

what the banks dont realize is the faster they get this stuff off the books the faster the market can recover -

s
s - Wednesday July 23, 2008 06:11PM EDT

Dont be so pissed, join the dark side and you will be happy for ever and life will be fun again. We are just 5% above the tripple low this year (bottom?! who cares). Dont chase for last $. SMH is still near all time low, buy techs INTC, CSCO, EMC, JAVA all are multi-year low. Dont be cry babbies just because you got screwed by missing rally in financials.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 23, 2008 06:18PM EDT

Iraqi Dinars are going up in value. As the Iraqi's stand up. I as well as many in the US that have speculated on the Iraqi currency as well as US service men and women that bought some that are hedging against the dollar and euro for their little Dinar investment to go up. The same thing that happened in Kuwait might happen in Iraq with their currency. Everything in this new century seems to be a gamble. Diversify by putting money in each, stocks, housing, commodities, your wife, oil, and gas. The thing to do is to put a little money in every area. Eventually one of the areas will take off. Here's and example, I took my own advice above and put money here and there and gave my ex wife some to hold. She was the first to take off. That was a greatest return on my investments so far.

KH
KH - Wednesday July 23, 2008 06:22PM EDT

try watching these two bozos with the sound off - it is the funniest thing on the internet to watch Henry Fudget nod his head like a bobblehead and wave his hands in the same motion EVERY TIME HE SPEAKS. lol lol lol

BIG D
BIG D - Wednesday July 23, 2008 06:31PM EDT

My thinking is the market is like a pendulum it will go so far one way and then it will go the other way. Hang in there and it will happen soon .

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