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Apple Zealots Go Overboard

Posted Feb 28, 2008 06:00am EST by Aaron Task in Electronics

Thursday should be a good day for Apple and its shareholders: At a Goldman Sachs conference Wednesday afternoon, Apple COO Timothy Cook gave a very upbeat presentation. Most notably, Cook reaffirmed Apple's target to ship 10 million iPhone units in 2008.

Cook also noted that while year-over-year iPod unit shipment growth was 5% in the December quarter --- a point of concern for some observers -- year-over-year revenue growth was 17%, the fastest for the iPod segment in a year. Cook attributed the strong revenue growth to the success of the iTouch, which he called  "the first true portable WiFi" device and a "very key product" for Apple.

The comments address recent concerns about iPhone and iPod sales that have been raised by various analysts, and summarily reported on by journalists like Barron's Eric Savitz.

In the accompanying video, Henry and I discuss the vitriol that always accompanies high-flying stocks -- especially amid a bout of weakness -- and the particularly high levels of emotion that Apple fans (boys and girls alike) bring to the discussion, which often devolves into a shouting match -- or worse.

The message: Don't shoot the messengers!

The subtext: Dissenting opinions about your favorite stock (or company) are good because they force you to rethink your rationale. And if you disagree with an analyst (or a blogger), don't yell and scream about it -- just take the other side of the trade.

40 Comments

TIM
TIM - Thursday February 28, 2008 08:16AM EST

...and it should be ok to yell fire in a crowded movie theater too, It's the only way to get good seats when your late for the movie. Like everything else on the internet analyst and reporters get measured by the amount of buzz they create and we all know how unexciting the truth is. Fact based stories are so pre 9/11 - rumors and speculation is what drives traffic today. keep up the good work "wolf criers".

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday February 28, 2008 08:30AM EST

"...amid a bout of weakness"? Excuse me. Since when is a 58 percent increase in profits and a forecast of 29 percent increase in profits the rest of the year, a bout of weakness? Most companies would kill for these figures. The only weakness in Apple is that which has been implied by self-serving, pontificating analysts and research firms, along with lazy writers who repeat--verbatim--one side of a story as if it's gospel, without bothering to take the time to learn more about what the real facts are. As noted Colombian and Nobel Prize-winning author Gabriel Garcia Marquez once wrote, "A lie repeated often enough becomes a truth." For example, do you really believe that one in four iPhones have been hacked? Are one-quarter of iPhone buyers that tech-savvy? I seriously doubt it. Also, do you really believe that 400,000 hacked iPhones are being used in China? First of all, why would that many people want an iPhone works in English, not Chinese? Secondly, if indeed this number is correct, isn't this a positive for Apple? There must be a huge demand for iPhone in China. If this many Chinese are using hacked iPhones, how many more will actually buy the phone when it is available in China. Back to the original point about getting the news right...wouldn't it be more accurate to write "...a perceived bout of weakness," rather than "a bout of weakness." The only "weakness" is that which has been created by lazy writers like you. Your job should include much more than just rehashing inaccurate press releases and media comments.

jim
jim - Thursday February 28, 2008 08:52AM EST

Savitz is vile, disgusting and as bad as Blodgett, Eli Hoffman, Cramer, et. al. Now he gets to play the victim. How preposterous! We all know NBC and Barrons and Microshaft are in bed together. So is this stance any surprise? Savitz can dish it out, but he has proven, not only that he is no reporter, but that he just can't take it! The SEC should go directly after Savitz and the others in the cabal.

john m
john m - Thursday February 28, 2008 09:15AM EST

THESE GUYS ARE IDIOTS!!! WHAT ARE YOU DOING YAHOO? AS LONG AS BLODGETT IS SHOWING HIS FACE ON YOUR SITE, I WILL BE GIVING GOOGLE FINANCE MY ATTENTION

MACS
MACS - Thursday February 28, 2008 09:24AM EST

News is always wrong. I checked old news and compared the stories with the next day or next few days events. News was Never on. In fact the only story accurate in the news is what everyone can currently see. News has no predictive value and only sway the inexperienced. What a way to make a living selling snake oil.

Patrick
Patrick - Thursday February 28, 2008 09:35AM EST

What you're missing, guys, is that the information Eric reported was cherry picked in favor of the negative. There are as many analysts (as you point out in your video, but Eric did NOT in his article) bullish on Apple as bearish. Responsible journalism -- even financial journalism - requires a balanced view. One example, of many, that really irritated me is this insistence that Apple will miss its iPhone sales target based on sales to-date, "unlocked" iPhones and overseas knockoff numbers. I'm in awe at the level of irresponsibility needed to counter Apple's numbers so early in the game. Apple's projection is for 10 million iPhone sales by the end of 2008. My calendar still reads February. There are still a full NINE MONTHS of sales ahead of Apple, rendering all third-party projections pointless. Any reasonable person would consider the possibility that ANY projection by ANY company could be missed. But to make final judgement on a projection whose results are still three quarters out is -- here's that word again -- irresponsible. Eric has a public forum and is using it poorly. THIS is what gets people angry.

Mike
Mike - Thursday February 28, 2008 09:39AM EST

You guys don't get it. The reason so many people are upset is that even this time last year, which we now know was a time of spectacular growth for Apple, a lot of these clown writers were giving one side of the story, and that was doom and gloom. We know that some of these guys write this for some reason, maybe not to short the stock, but to get clicks on their article and make money that way. Some writers have even come out and admitted this. The problem is, days like yesterday when Apple came out and discussed the facts, are very rare. They usually don't comment at all even if things are said that are completely untrue. As a result, the negative stuff written becomes the only word out there and undisputed. actually does move the stock downward...you can see it practically every quarter for Apple. People have caught onto this game and are fed up with it, especially those who have bought and hold the stock. The "writers", or as I like to call them "click mongers", we know from history often only give one side of the story, and often its wrong, that's what people are so upset about. Steve Jobs in January went out of his way to say "writers" made up the story of China Mobile nearing an agreement and the deal falling through last quarter. The fact was there was just one informal iformational meeting by one representative of China Mobile...not any of this "the deal is immenient, the deal is broken, the deal will never happen mantra that went on for months in the press. Jobs says it was all made up! Hilarious..that is if it didn't move the stock and some stockholders that had to sell were really hurt.

tavlit
tavlit - Thursday February 28, 2008 09:56AM EST

i think apple is a good company it innovates and changes the way we think about stuff not every product is a game changer judging a company because it isnt able to meet game changer expectation every time is not proffesional the figures are great i think that apple stock is a mirror of the market - with 1000% zoom if for example i will write that apple sold 14 milion iphones by 2008 the stock will go up if the subprime issues bother folks in the us - apple will suffer by that you need to be patient if you dont need the money put it on the stock and wait a few years you might find out that apple will be worth 600$ a share by 2010 good luck gil

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday February 28, 2008 10:03AM EST

Maybe your article should have read "Zealot writers of Apple news go overboard". As Tim Cook just proved yesterday that they were wrong in their negativity of Apple.

Pete D
Pete D - Thursday February 28, 2008 10:12AM EST

I've met Eric, and I have had the opportunity to discuss several companies and markets with him personally. I think he's got a hell of a lot on the ball. And I'm a regular reader of most of his work, and frequently post comments. Any time Eric reports anything on Apple, he gets a hundred times more comments than for any other article. The vitriol is ridiculous, and has included very personal attacks and "hate speech." I find that these vitriolic comments come from unsophisticated investors, that in my opinion would be much better off allowing a mutual fund manager to invest for them.

Yeboah
Yeboah - Thursday February 28, 2008 10:23AM EST

l want to know more on how to finance and manage a company and also a very good company name.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday February 28, 2008 10:24AM EST

These two clowns yakking away are merely apologists trying to save Erica from an SEC investigation. I'd be very afraid if I were him. Also, to Pete D: what makes you think you're sophisticated?

espresso
espresso - Thursday February 28, 2008 10:52AM EST

You Apple clowns are just making these guys' case for them, You can't even just post a response, you have to post it repeatedly five or six times. In the end, it is the Cult of Apple that will doom the stock. Because Apple sells a fashion product, not just consumer electronics, it is likely to see its line of products go out of fashion. Look at the demographic group that Apple caters to, and you'll see the most fickle group of consumers (or at least the ones with the most disposible cash). That will come to an end some day. And if you think about it, consumer electronics as a fashion item is pretty lame.

Yeshayahu
Yeshayahu - Thursday February 28, 2008 11:07AM EST

How many ipods will be sold is a function of the amount of money people feel like spending on nice-to-have electronic accessories. If there is a recession or worse, people will spend less on things that are not necessities - and APPLE will not make its goal.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday February 28, 2008 11:30AM EST

As an Apple investor and long time reader of Eric Savitz's work, I will be the first to admit that what irks me about his and many of the other analyst's writing is that they often have the facts wrong. The basis of their logic and arguments is often predicated on misquotes and missed information. I am irked by this because I can often do the research with presumably less contacts and sources than these analysts have available to them and make more accurate predictions concerning Apple's intent and whether or not they can meet their projections. If I can do that then it would seem there is no excuse for the shoddy reporting that occasionally appears. To be fair, I've noticed in the past week that Mr. Savitz has made a clear effort to copyedit his articles more carefully. I do agree that there have a been a few comments that used inappropiate language, but the crux of their argument that this shoddy reporting does indeed move the stock(either up or down) is correct. Does Mr. Savitz move it by himself? Of course not, but unfortunately in today's blogosphere many of the financial blogs don't do any of their own research. Instead they often just copy and paste the work of others or deep link to those who do the real work , such as Mr. Savitz, which is why it becomes so important for primary content creators to be absolutely sure they have their facts solid before they go to press. I do agree that any complaints that involve cultural epithets are unacceptable and that Mr. Savitz deserves an apology from those few jerks who may written something inexcusable before cooling down and responding rationally. I contend though that those type of comments were in the minority.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday February 28, 2008 11:46AM EST

Eric Savitz' feet must be held to the fire and we must be vigilant to call him up on any misrepresentation of the facts. This is a call to all Apple investors. If you don't believe we have the right to do so, you are sadly mistaken.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday February 28, 2008 11:48AM EST

Howdy Dowdy and Dinosaur Boy here notwithstanding, they are complicit as well in downing a great company with great prospects!

Paul C
Paul C - Thursday February 28, 2008 12:11PM EST

blodget should spent for time in the bathroom writing his next best seller instead the man does his best work there anyway

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday February 28, 2008 12:16PM EST

These guys are basically sociopaths and shysters. The criminal element has gained the ascendancy in manipulating the market with respect to this one stock in particular. We MUST stop them.

kyu wang
kyu wang - Thursday February 28, 2008 12:21PM EST

agree that Eric Savitz doing his job, but it would be nice if his job is reliable, worthy of reading, his writing is a pile of unchecked speculations, full of negatives, it is about time for him to think about what he's been doing

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