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"Pretty Big Downside" for Oil, Energy Stocks as Demand Falls, Garnick Says

Posted Jul 25, 2008 12:55pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession

Following a rapid, 15% drop from their recent peak, oil prices stabilized around $125 per barrel for a few days but were declining again on Friday.

Numerous reports of oil's demise have proven premature in the recent years. But "as global GDP slows down," Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, sees "energy continuing to come down" with "pretty big downside" still ahead.

Garnick didn't put a number on it today, but predicted a 25% decline for crude within six months during an appearance on Tech Ticker in late June.

While speculation plays a role, Garnick essentially endorsed my view that supply and demand fundamentals have been the primary driver of crude prices, both up and, more recently, down.

Given her outlook for more downside in energy prices, Garnick recommends investors reduce their exposure to energy stocks where she sees "a lot more downside risk" than in other growth industries, most notably tech.

129 Comments

Troy
Troy - Friday July 25, 2008 01:13PM EDT

Dumbest thing I've ever heard

michael
michael - Friday July 25, 2008 01:23PM EDT

Buy tech in a slowing economy? Umm...no. I don't think so. Nothing has changed. Oil will be back up.

RileyH
RileyH - Friday July 25, 2008 01:25PM EDT

Silly little analyst, never even mentioned the four letter word that is IRAN.

John M
John M - Friday July 25, 2008 01:29PM EDT

Are they brother and sister? They both look like chimps.

MARK
MARK - Friday July 25, 2008 01:29PM EDT

what a joke - this lady is a morrronnn the oil breakeven is a full $80 per barrel - dont be fooled - printing money above 80 ppb if it drops below 80 then sell -

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 25, 2008 01:31PM EDT

The fact is as the US continues to slow everything else gets dragged down with it. Europe will start to slow. Then there will be less demand for the stuff China makes. So all that will be a drag on oil. I think there will still be resistance to $3.50 gasoline in a slowing economy. The day that oil demand is back up though and supplies low, watch out!

César
César - Friday July 25, 2008 01:32PM EDT

Today, Petrobras CEO, said tha oil is not expensive if actual finding and operative cost are on the table. The main Oil services and drilliang companies are working almost a full capacity, specialy Schlumberger, Halliburton, HP, Baker. Energy cost are gong to grow because the peak of oil production has been reached. review Dr. King Hubbert predictions. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/

guppy
guppy - Friday July 25, 2008 01:35PM EDT

She's talking it down so Invesco can buy ? Never trust an analyst their agendas are always suspect

G$
G$ - Friday July 25, 2008 01:35PM EDT

Hey interviewer...SHUT UP AND LET THE EXPERT SPEAK AND STOP TRYING TO INJECT YOUR HEADLINE "KNOWLEDGE" INTO THE MIX...you are interviewing someone that is a lot more intelligent than you...so ask the question and let her speak!

Ed
Ed - Friday July 25, 2008 01:36PM EDT

Could this drop have anything to do with the President lifting the prresidential ban on offshore drilling? If congress lits the ban totally the price would collapse to $50 overnight.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 25, 2008 01:37PM EDT

Is she related to Shelley Long ?

John M
John M - Friday July 25, 2008 01:43PM EDT

Thomas M - I think you couldnt be more correct... All this talk about supply and demand - i guess everyone thinks it is just coincidence that the price per barrel saw the largest drop it had seen in 17 years - and it happened less than 24 hours after Bush lifted the symbolic executive ban - was then followed by a week or more of prices drops. Pure speculation.

D A
D A - Friday July 25, 2008 01:45PM EDT

How ironic? This is all shaping up to be just in time for the election. The fact is that all the market manipulations of recent from our government and others will create only a short-term "breather" from energy prices. It still stands that the world economy is developing producing a long-term increase in oil demand, and people still are not drastically changing the way they live, even at these prices. The only thing this will accomplish is for Americans to say, "Whew!", and keep their gas guzzlers, which will make things worse in the long term.

David
David - Friday July 25, 2008 01:46PM EDT

Oil is obviously overpriced. Supply and demand can't explain an increase of 100% in under a year. There were many factors which caused the price of oil to rise as it did. Inflation, speculation, and the Dollar's decline vs the Euro have all caused this problem to explode. The dollars re-valuation, A slowing of inflation ( which the FED can control to some extent) and decrease in demand can help lower prices. Just a thought, did you know that A F-18 fighter can burn through 20 gallons of gas in a single second? Makes you think of what causes a good portion of the demand. . . WAR.

stephen
stephen - Friday July 25, 2008 01:48PM EDT

It cost about $3/barrel to pump oil out of the ground, including all costs, (that's why they didn't go bankrupt when the price of oil dropped to $10/barrel.) At $130/barrel the US is becoming a pincushion with all the new gas and oil well they are drilling, it's a two year wait to get your landed drilled now, when all those new wells go online, then what?

Alireza
Alireza - Friday July 25, 2008 01:50PM EDT

yea.I think that we shoud not launch in to politics.

Alireza
Alireza - Friday July 25, 2008 01:50PM EDT

yea.I think that we shoud not launch in to politics.

D A
D A - Friday July 25, 2008 01:51PM EDT

It probably has very little to do with Bush lifting the ban. That action may have a little influence, but what really matters in the long term are actual production levels and demand, not silly little ploys to open up drilling. Speculators are not stupid, and they know that oil companies will not rush to pump a bunch of new oil regardless of availability. That would eat at their own profits by drastically increasing supply. All actions like Bush's just take the edge off prices and make them more real, which is close to where we are right now. Prices will not drop much below $110 per barrel regardless.

Barry
Barry - Friday July 25, 2008 01:55PM EDT

G$---chill man, his job as interviewer is to question and interject to give her points to work off of---------shes being interviewed--not giving a lecture--thats how it works in such format

David
David - Friday July 25, 2008 01:56PM EDT

To Thomas M. Offshore drilling will not change anything "Overnight" it takes time to build, and refine oil. The solution is more fuel efficent cars.

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