Saturday, December 26, 2009, 11:51AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
With oil prices retreating from their all-time high of $147 a barrel on July 11 (although they edged up past $124 again this morning), there's talk that the oil bubble has finally burst. "Keep dreaming," says Chris Nelder, co-author of "Profit from the Peak" and an editor at EnergyandCapital.com.
Nelder is a firm believer that oil prices are being driven by fundamental issues of supply and demand rather than speculation, and recent data backs him up:
Episodes of geopolitical tension are a factor in oil prices, too, as are recent discoveries of reserves in Brazil and elsewhere. But Nelder maintains that "fundamentals have always been in play" despite the current preoccupation with speculation, and cautions that the time to get used to $120-and-above oil is now.
Aaron Task, writer of this story is a MORON who can't even spell "speculation" right (get spellcheck Aaron). His support of the "supply/demand" arguement only lists one of these two fundamental components, demand. He fails to mention anything about supply. Here's a clue Aaron, if you try to make a logical arguement concerning supply and demand you must list BOTH supply AND demand statistics. The reduced demand he mentioned in his 3 bulleted points are simply resulting from outrageous speculative oil prices creating demand destruction. Look at the timeline Aaron. you will see oil prices rose outrageously FIRST, then demand destruction occured for derivitives of oil. The simple fact remains that oil prices rose from $64/barrel one year ago to a high of $147 recently with only a small overall demand increase and no supply issues anywhere during that same timeframe. No logical, rational human being could possibly make the case that $147 oil (or even $124 oil) is today the result of supply demand issues.
the bottom line is not about supply or demand, its about making money. what's better than making money? making more money. the price will be whatever the powers that be choose it to be, wether we have 100 trillion barrels or one barrel, the price will be set and we will pay it. the only option to avoid high prices is to stop buying, but who will do that? there are other options available, look into them.
Pumping up that oil stock. Why do they have guys like this on the show?
If I look for work and start writing emails to someone - oil price goes up and stock prices go down - just a coincidence I think. But it never fails.
Aaron Task, writer of this story is a MORON who can't even spell "speculation" right (get spellcheck Aaron). His support of the "supply/demand" arguement only lists one of these two fundamental components, demand. He fails to mention anything about supply. Here's a clue Aaron, if you try to make a logical arguement concerning supply and demand you must list BOTH supply AND demand statistics. The reduced demand he mentioned in his 3 bulleted points are simply resulting from outrageous speculative oil prices creating demand destruction. Look at the timeline Aaron. you will see oil prices rose outrageously FIRST, then demand destruction occured for derivitives of oil. The simple fact remains that oil prices rose from $64/barrel one year ago to a high of $147 recently with only a small overall demand increase and no supply issues anywhere during that same timeframe. No logical, rational human being could possibly make the case that $147 oil (or even $124 oil) is today the result of supply demand issues.
Aaron Task, writer of this story is a MORON who can't even spell "speculation" right (get spellcheck Aaron). His support of the "supply/demand" arguement only lists one of these two fundamental components, demand. He fails to mention anything about supply. Here's a clue Aaron, if you try to make a logical arguement concerning supply and demand you must list BOTH supply AND demand statistics. The reduced demand he mentioned in his 3 bulleted points are simply resulting from outrageous speculative oil prices creating demand destruction. Look at the timeline Aaron. you will see oil prices rose outrageously FIRST, then demand destruction occured for derivitives of oil. The simple fact remains that oil prices rose from $64/barrel one year ago to a high of $147 recently with only a small overall demand increase and no supply issues anywhere during that same timeframe. No logical, rational human being could possibly make the case that $147 oil (or even $124 oil) is today the result of supply demand issues.
The dude probably stands to make some dough on an oil uptick.
It is not useful to point at China and India as an excuse for not reducing US carbon emissions. What happened to US leadership? If we reduce carbon emissions, we will be in a good position to pressure other nations to follow our lead. If we do not reduce emissions, all natioins will suffer, including the US.
My take on this is simple. You want to maintain the status quo then you must look to alternative fuel and energy strategies. Now is the time to disconnect from the oil grid and move to what is feasible. Coal and natural gas can be made into liquid fuels. The US is the Saudi Arabia of coal. Likewise, wind farms are a good idea. I think Pickens plan is on a basic level a good idea. Solar sounds good to if it has progressed to the point of being practical and feasible. Like with every new technology it will be expensive at first, but within a very short time as mass production picks up, the price will shrink dramatically and it will become more widely available. As a strategic matter, I think oil is a major issue for us in the US as it is for the rest of the world. So its best to invest today in these alternative energy sources so that we are prepared for the future. Elsewise, we will all be totally, inextricably screwed.
I alway get a kick out of gas stations raising their prices three or more times a day based on the rising cost of a barrel of oil. When oil dropped from it's high of $147 to the current $125. These same gas stations took 4-5 days before they dropped it even a few cents. I saw something recently that on the upswing, a $1 rise per barrel of oil equates to approximatley 2.5 cents per gallon of gas. But oil has dropped approx $22, so when will we see the 55 cent decrease in the price of gas? We never will because oil companies know that after a lengthy period of being shocked at $4+ for a gallon of gas, that dropping it a few cents seems like the price is adjusting. They will continue to raise the price of gas at 4 or 5 times the rate during upswings in oil and reduce it at a fraction when oil prices drop. We are screwed and our elected officials do nothing to big oil other than calling oil execs in and asking them why...what a waste of the tax payers money!
What a Farce!!!! Want to know the real truth people? Go to youtube.com and look up Lindsey Williams Energy Non-Crisis...there's the truth for you!!!! This joker in this article is just another speculator!!!!
Greg - wanna know why we pay $150/barrel when it costs the Saudis $1.50 to get it out of the ground?? Because we buy so much cheap crap from China that they take our money and outbid our buyers on the oil market. We give China more money per day than we give Saudi Arabia. We are hemhorraging cash in both directions. If we keep this up, eventually they will both buy us all out. Start learning Chinese or Arabic now.
Greg - wanna know why we pay $150/barrel when it costs the Saudis $1.50 to get it out of the ground?? Because we buy so much cheap crap from China that they take our money and outbid our buyers on the oil market. We give China more money per day than we give Saudi Arabia. We are hemhorraging cash in both directions. If we keep this up, eventually they will both buy us all out. Start learning Chinese or Arabic now.
Oil is a mere speculation from Big shots. where was this author year ago? Also why did not govt opt for other options few years ago? All CEO care about their bonuses. The world demand had not dropped instantly to justify the 23 price fall in 2 weeks. Yes, I agree that Green back falling value (speacially against euro, but the leaders should had had planned how to deal with this european comnied group) had helped people justifying the hedge against it, but all these analyst are backed by very powerful financial & political personalities, who would never surface. I do not believe in any analysts, specailly Goldman... The country & specially the middle class is going to hear this saga for long time unless someone has the guts to unroot them. Also all the financial companies are window dressing their number for them and their employees bonusues at the stake of investment from normal us citizens hard saved money in 401k. NAKED SHORT SELLING is only helping millioniares investing through the hedge funds. We will need a chief who can go to the root of this financial & oil scam and make them responsible. US is the world's biggest democracy & most powerful country, but currently at the mercy of greedy politicians & financial powers. NEXT WOULD BE WIND ENERGY, but only rich & those connected, would benefit making money on those options at the stake of middle class US citizens as we are a Capitalistic democrat economy . Also HOUSING PRICES HAVE TO BUBBLE OUT FOR NEXT FEW YEARS. POPULATION had not increased to the extent where nobody has spaceto leave or food to eat. SPECULATION IN COMMODITY MARKET SINCE FEW YEARS IS THE MAJOR ROOT, besides demand, which I agree is going up but not justifying the outsourced money game.
Seeing these posts is pretty much proof of the power of distortion from PR groups and enviro interest groups that spout them, sometimes as scripts for Dems in photo ops. One reason energy policy seems lost or nonexistent is because the arm chair energy experts are dead wrong. For Ed the poster child of illogic there are these glimpses of truth and experience to run from. 1) the ultimate resource is not known, it is a function of drilling and access, 2) Peak Oil is a theory extended from some older models of onshore basin statistical models not a convenient excuse to steer energy policy and the nation in a radical direction off the cliff, 3) the drilling ban areas in the US are not insignificant, they consist of the entire east coast, west coast, eastern Gulf of Mexico in addition to ANWAR and major federal land tracks in onshore US, 4) even the statements of oil scarcity by oil execs are only half true because they are forced to ignore the potential offshore Mexico and Hugo land, Putin land, Shia nuclear land, and others, and 5) the USGS estimates of total US offshore potential do not even add up to one cluster of discoveries offshore Brazil. I could go on but I doubt that the propaganda parade cares to look beyond its limited dimensions of synthetic truth.
The second we announce plans for drilling offshore and in Anwar, the price of oil will plummet! All the short sellers will come out of the woodwork and the profit takers will panic. This, however will only be a short term reprieve. We have already run out of cheap oil. Nuclear energy is the only sane alternative, yet closed minded idiots are preventing us from having it. Jimmy Carter was a nuclear engineer. If we had not given way to the hysteria in the late 70's and stayed on the path his administration set forth (the only positive contribution of that administration) we would not be in the very bad position we are in right now. We are getting a new administration. Time to clean out the other two branches of our government as well!
Anyone who believes speculation is not the key to oil's absurd rise must also believe in the tooth fairy. I agree with those who see this guy for what he is, a speculator himself who wants the gravy train to roll on. I throw him under the buss with the Morgan Stanley "analyst" who said oil would rise to $150 by July 4 and $250 by years end ,another speculator. To those of you calling for opening up drilling, think beyond the nose on your face. Drilling and anything related to "find more oil" doesn't solve anything. Follow T. Boone and go the way of developing new sources and rid our dependence on oil and all the problems it creates.
When is the US going to wake up to the fact that we are to blame for high oil prices? We insist on driving SUVs, pickup trucks, and high horsepower sports cars instead of fuel efficient vehicles. Then we look for someone else to blame for our own stupidity.
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Elizabeth - Monday July 28, 2008 01:29PM EDT
I wonder if he's in cahoots with Goldman Sachs. :P