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Street Fight: Analysts Battle Over the Bottom in Financials

Posted Aug 12, 2008 02:42pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

From ClusterStock, August 12, 2008:

Financial stocks are nowhere close to a bottom. Net charge-offs and non-performing loans are still growing. Banks will have to raise more capital to plug balance sheet holes, further diluting current shareholders. Etc.

So goes the bear argument. Tom Brown at Bankstocks.com begs to differ.

As my guest Barry Ritholtz of Fusion IQ and The Big Picture and I discuss, Brown points out that, historically, markets tend to anticipate improving metrics rather than respond to them. If you wait to see improving loan performance, argues Brown, you'll miss most of the rally. Brown compares today's crisis to the crisis and recover in the early 90s.

If you waited until 1992, when chargeoffs started to improve, you would have missed half of the rally:

Remember, the market is a discounting machine: it anticipates key events so early on the vast majority of investors don’t even think those events are possible. In the case of the financials now, that means stock prices will turn higher (and already have, I believe) when most investors believe that things are still getting worse. It happens every cycle.

So there’s no use trying to concoct your own list of mental milestones. Instead, go back and look at what happened (and in what order) during the last major credit crackup, in 1990-91. If you do, you’ll see that the bears have things all backwards. By the time their wish lists happen, the stocks will be zooming.

The danger, of course, is that you could have used a similar line of reasoning to argue that the sector bottomed two months ago. It all comes down to what happens to the value of the assets on the balance sheets: If they continue to drop and banks are forced to take more multibillion-dollar losses, Meredith Whitney will be right. If not, Tom Brown can continue riding this rally to victory.

Note: Tom Brown will join me on Tech Ticker this Thursday to defend his views.

30 Comments

Blog
Blog - Tuesday August 12, 2008 11:25PM EDT

The entire babyboom generation is set to liquidate on the 40th aniversary of Woodstock. August 15, 2009. Better be out by then.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday August 13, 2008 12:22AM EDT

"Listen, if you want to make $$$ you have to buy when their is good old fashioned blood on the streets." Blood on the streets ranges anywhere from drops to pools of blood. After the tech burst I could have bought 100 shares of pcln @ $10 ps with the ~$1K I had to risk. That was drops. I bought 1000 for about $1090 when there were pools. $10 ps would have brought me ~ $10K to date. The same ~$1k investment is at $100k today.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday August 13, 2008 02:20AM EDT

hmm

Chuck
Chuck - Wednesday August 13, 2008 02:37AM EDT

A random thought... Maybe the financials drop today WAS to lure the short-sellers. Curious to see what happens on Wed BTW - I notice that Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday August 13, 2008 12:22AM EDT, said "could have" and "would have" Ahhhhhhhhh, those words... :-)

jim
jim - Wednesday August 13, 2008 06:33AM EDT

Because her word is gold now and can do no wrong. Every time she says oh I think this company or that company is going to have more writeoffs, the stock tanks and everyone says, wow she is right again. The problem is it is just an educated guess. But her words are taken as law and the market tanks. What she should do is shut up and lets she how right she is then. It is easy to be right if your words control the market.

JimK
JimK - Wednesday August 13, 2008 10:12AM EDT

The XLF is down 10% in the last day and a half. It is down over 20% since 2003, down 10% since 1998! These stocks STINK and have stunk for 10 years. Hey pqbooicu - Go ahead - waste all the money you want here! LOL Commodities Rock - DBC is STILL way up for the year. How about your boy, Stevens from Alaska, his dirty dealings still make Edwards look like a choir boy!

big
big - Wednesday August 13, 2008 01:21PM EDT

I blame the independents

steve
steve - Wednesday August 13, 2008 03:09PM EDT

Ask yourself, who correctly called this crisis in the first place, the folks like Whitney, who warned you, or the folks like Brown, who told you the coast was clear when it wasn't back a year or so ago, yet are rushing to (shamelessly) assure you that the coast is clear again! Face it, most of you longs missed the whole story before it happened and are worse than worthless as seers now.

kenneth
kenneth - Wednesday August 13, 2008 11:08PM EDT

I am buying XLF, yes the financials will go lower in the near term, but I am not trying to catch the bottom b/c that of course is highly unlikely. I just want to catch it low and get a nice 50% return in 3-5 years with a nice divident. If it goes down more, I will snatch some more up. XLF is 4 points above the low/panic day price, down 15 from it's highs. Risk/Reward, Downside vs. Upside. Nuf said.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 15, 2008 10:20AM EDT

Seriously dumb: The low level of discouse here and a collection of some of the dumbest comments ever seen on the internet are on Tech Ticker. That's too bad, cause the videos are pretty good. Are y'all drunk college kids -- or just plain clueless ? Really, its quite astonishing. . I've never seen so many retards in one place outside of an institution.

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