A Bottom in Housing? You've Got to Be Kidding

basic supply and demand says the market will come back when the baby boomers grandkids, (which is still a smaller market) are buying houses..10-15 years assuming medicare and medicade havent completely demolished the economy.

basic supply and demand says the market will come back when the baby boomers grandkids, (which is still a smaller market) are buying houses..10-15 years assuming medicare and medicade havent completely demolished the economy.

These clowns are making rash generalizations about the Real Estate "market". The real Estate "market" is actually thousands of smaller markets and they all have different situations. Atlanta is different from San Francisco, which is different from Little Rock, AR. I'm not saying any is better or worse, just different. Please do your research and don't listen to these jokesters on Tech Ticker.

Tech Ticker is great. I really love their objective coverage. This segment was also very good..

I agree with Barry. I don't see housing bottoming until late 2012. Also, to show that I'm unbiased, I actually am trying to sell my real estate. Why? Because I see that it will continue lower. Housing prices will recover and rise, but they will not outpace inflation for many years. Simply put, the nominal value will rise, but inflation adjusted will not. Rents are rising in general at a lower than real inflation rate as incomes are rising less than inflation. This makes the housing recovery take even longer. This does make sense. Financial institutions radically tightened lending guidelines, when I would have rather seen a 5 year smoothing out to this point. This would allow the market to adjust better. In addition, the spread of 30 year fixed vs. the 10 year Treasury is probably at a multi-decade high. This spread hurts RE sales as although the 10 year is within 1% of historic lows, 30 year fixed rates are not. Then we come to property taxes. Although assessed values will decline, counties and municipalities will raise the tax rates to compensate as we still have to pay for schools and other services. The only good thing I can see is that the price decline will be at a slower pace than it has been declining.

I think they are all guessing and dont have any clue as to when this downward spiral is going to bottom out... Suddenly everyones the one who "KNOWS"and is hoping they will be the lucky one so they can say I told you so and some how it will make them more money.

I think you are all correct, and I particularly agree with the the media not only making this worse, but seem to revel in it. When some good news comes out they discount it and when bad numbers are reported they promote them. Henry Blodget does appear to have an agenda.

This disaster is just beginning. Do not believe anything the lying NAR says...

I bought my house in 1988 during the last real estate bubble in Fairfield County CT. In the year 2000 it was still worth 10% LESS than what I had paid for it. I laugh my butt off every time I hear someone say something that suggests that the housing market will "bounce back". Bounce back to what? The absurdities of the mid 2000's??? Yeah, I'm still waiting for my stock in EMC to hit $100 a share. This is the new housing market. If you bought in 2005, don't be surprised if your house would sell for the same price in 2015.

There will be no bell going off signaling the bottom. Each zip code is affected differently. If someone is a real user then this is a great time to buy. Where there is an abundant supply and the area is overbuilt it could be years before the market comes back. Areas that are long established have already stabilized. Taking 5 months to sell a house is a real market. The days of selling something in 5 weeks are gone.

NJ house prices peaked in 1988; dropped 20% by 1992. Did not returned to 1988 price till 2002. I think this correction has just begun in NJ and will continue for another 10 years minimum. Prices increased 100 to 180% from 1999 to 2005. A 30% 40% correction is very reasonable.

drepeterson the average US salary in 2002 was 36,500. I would estimate that 5 years later, it is about 40+. Your estimate of 31k was about right, in about 1992 LOL.

blame it on sub prime mortgage brokers

Greenspan called the housing bubble? Then why did he not do anyhing He left it for his successor to deal with. almost all of the loans were sold during his watch. he should have at the very least tightened margin requirements.

That's it. I can't take it anymore. My background is as a mezzanine debt investor in the for-sale residential asset class. For those of you I've lost already, stop reading now. I won't bore you with qualifications, but simply understand that all I do is track the for-sale real estate sector. First, bank regulations are a beautiful thing. Not for the end-home buyer, but rather as a supply regulator. When developers had to put up only 5% equity, anyone, qualified or otherwise, could exacerbate the supply inefficiency. Now that banks have pulled back lending limits, the economy is set to be in a much better position. Which takes us to demand. This is more tricky as it pertains to market perception, media, mortgage finance, and emotion. I speak on panel after panel regarding this and no one can accurately predict how a person will feel about their 401k, or their job, or their nest egg, etc. in 12 months. But suffice it to say, 500,000 starts in the U.S. is a good thing. If you don't know why, stop posting here.

despite the jersey/brooklyn accent (just kidding)- this guy is really on the ball. very impressive

Does Tech Ticker ever report anything positive? I keep seeing segments telling me that my house will be worthless in 10 years, and my bank will collapse...yada, yada. I'm becoming immune to all of this spewing of fear and predictions of the end of the world as we know it. Aside from spending an extra $50/month in gas, I'm not seeing much of a change in my overall budget. I still shop and go out to eat as much as I ever have, and I'm definitely not alone on that (try getting a table at any restaurant in the Mall of America without calling ahead). So go ahead and tell us all how terrible things are - I'm just not buying it anymore.

Capitalism baby. This is what it is all about ups, downs, winners, losers, speculators, renters, the haves, the have nots. Real simple buy low sell high and if you make a bad choice you eat it, stop bailing people out (gov.). Supply and Demand along with trends is the way to make the best GUESS its just that simple.

TT often has some poor advice/analysis, but if you think that this is one of those times, you are dead wrong. There is nothing positive about housing right now, with the exception of a few high growth areas of the U.S. (Naperville, IL, Wichita, KS, et al). Even looking at these areas supply is only finally starting to come back in line with demand, and as a result there has been some growth in home prices in these areas in recent months. Looking at the big picture, however, one realizes that in general real estate is just not safe. Existing homes in the United States are at a high enough capacity to fill all the demand for homes for the next 18 months, and that ignores any new homes being built which, trust me, is not the case. Builders have cut back, but have not stopped because many areas of the country (Atlanta, GA, for one) trend towards buying new homes, even with previously owned on the market. As a result, we get a high inventory of homes, and new homes on the market that people can't afford because, beyond the fact that the consumer is in trouble, mortgages are NOT easy to come by, regardless of what you people might think/experience. Housing still has a little way to fall, and I think it will plateau for a little bit before it really starts to rebound, because the speculators will be much more skeptical and wary than last time. I'm hoping it lasts 4-5 more years when I'm in position to buy my first home, but I'm doubting that right now, I'd say by 2010, we'll be well on the road to recovery, after a rugged 2nd half 2008 and 1q 2009, things will pick up, and housing won't be far behind.

They don't know what they're talking about. Neither one.