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The Dollar Also Rallies: The Case for More Upside

Posted Aug 25, 2008 11:08am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession

The dollar slipped early Monday and oil rose, interrupting a recent trend of "strong dollar/weak commodities" that some traders say will persist for some time.

Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com, is among those who believe the dollar -- which is up 8% vs. the euro and 5% vs. the yen since mid-July -- has begun a sustainable rally. After falling vs. other asset classes from 2002 through mid-2008, "the dollar has turned a corner," Harrison says.

Harrison believes the greenback has begun a secular advance based on the strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan, as well as foreign investors' desire to see the dollar advance after having lost big on dollar-denominated assets in recent years. The veteran trader and market commentator also believes the U.S. could be heading for a dis/deflationary environment in which the hoarding of dollars could emerge as Americans cut back on consumption and begin to rebuild savings.

The Wall Street Journal also examined the case for a sustainable dollar rally today but (at least) three caveats must be noted:

  • The U.S. economy only looks good relative to the weakness in Europe and Asia; it's not strong on an absolute basis as plunging prices in this morning's existing home sales data suggest.
  • Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials may talk about their concern about inflation, but their actions don't support the rhetoric. By contrast, the ECB has been willing to sacrifice growth in order to fight inflation.
  • Any presumptive bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would add about $5 trillion to the debt obligations of the U.S. government, and that can't be good for the long-term value of the currency.

13 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday August 25, 2008 11:22AM EDT

Yes, stronger dollar is good for our economy. But what I don't understand is if a barrel of oil is the same price it was a year ago, why is it then we are paying a dollar more per gallon?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday August 25, 2008 11:26AM EDT

Stop printing money (dollars) an pay your debts Oh ..and stop spending like drunken sailors. The only way people will trust the US economy/government and $$. Just a thought!!!

- Monday August 25, 2008 11:29AM EDT

Flip, flop, flip, flop. Leaders of the new idiocracy.

- Monday August 25, 2008 11:48AM EDT

..http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080822/wl_canada_afp/canadauseucrimemoney_080822212441......Underworld people won't take dollars anymore.

- Monday August 25, 2008 11:54AM EDT

To me, it looks like a case of fleas jumping to the highest pebble in the bed of a river in which a huge flood is about to break loose. "Yeh, let's buy more dollars 'cause they are 1/4 of an inch higher than the yen/euro/bhat/whatever." But the absolute value of the USD is drowning in a torrent of ink and paper as the USA tries to prop up the world economic system (of corruption) on the backs of its taxpayers, whose homes are plunging in value and jobs are disappearing. Is there a problem?

- Monday August 25, 2008 11:58AM EDT

america's consuming to lift economy is over. housing is all that we had. it's dead. with new president in office look to a investment led economic expansion into new energies and techologies. it's inevitable. think of america as a 20 year old ruby's restaurante. all the grease and crime in the traps and in the corners. it needs to be burned to the ground then rebuilt.

- Monday August 25, 2008 12:50PM EDT

LOL GOLD MEDAL for the Coffee grab.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday August 25, 2008 01:31PM EDT

I am grappling unsuccessfully with the notion that a government takeover of fannie and freddie would add 5 Trillion Dollars to the national debt. The idea that 100% of the mortgage assets that back their debt instruments will be devalued to zero just doesn't make sense to me. Mr. Trask, could you provide substantiation for this claim, or at least outline a scenario that defends the likelihood of such an occurrence?

- Monday August 25, 2008 03:54PM EDT

FREEBIRD!!!

- Monday August 25, 2008 04:04PM EDT

I agree that it's unlikely for 100% of mortgage assets to go to zero, but by nationalizing Fannie, Freddie, the US Govt would take on the obligation to pay off their $5T in debt in the event of default. Moody's has said taking on FNM/FRE obligations won't endanger the U.S.A.'s Aaa credit rating but Moody's (and S&P) also rated a lot of subprime MBS as Aaa before coming to their senses.... - Aaron Task

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday August 25, 2008 06:02PM EDT

I don't see how the dollar can continue to strengthen with a large and increasing foreign debt, increasing deficits, a stalled or shrinking economy, and a central bank scared to death of a recession.

- Monday August 25, 2008 10:06PM EDT

hey

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 11:45AM EDT

Both the government and the population just has to cut down. Cut down spending. you can't have you $600 pocketbook if you can't afford it.

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