Glimmers of Hope for Housing, But We're Still a Long Way from Bottom

Anyone else notice the "real value" of your stock market investments have absolutely plummeted the last 10 years!!!

The only people buying homes right now are investors. This is far from over!

It does seem that there are far too many negative things going on to look for the bottom, at this time. I, actually, wonder what is keeping all the balls in the air. It seems that there are a lot of people and "experts" whistling past the graveyard.

You're right Yahoo Finance User if investors are buying then we probably have another 75% to fall...I think home values will never rise again!!! and Oil should be $5,000 an ounce, and the DOW should be 400, and we're all gonna die!!!!!!!! Irrational exuberance rears it's ugly head again. If investor's are buying that would actually be a sign of the bottom not more to go..

There are two important factors regarding home price stabilization: Months of inventory and the ratio between the median price and median income. There's about 11 months of inventory (6 months is historically "natural") and the price/income ratio is now down to 4.2 (whereas the 25-year average is about 4.1). Prices are now almost back down to the historical average (we're less than 3% away), such that demand and sales will begin to rise, which will reduce inventory. Price stability is already rushing back, which is the key to restoring financials.

guy let do the number fnm and fre is secure just that the bear keep shorting. where is the 300,000,000,000 dolllar go, can somebody do the number and place a comment thk..... i want to start buying FRE and FNM on a dollar cost averaging bases. the only people that is foreclosuring is theTHE FLIPER who got caught in the storm of greed. the same with technology stock about 9 years ago ,if i am correct, then is greed

I am sure somewhere there is some good research-- personally find the home price chart from 1900 to now---------- im sure the most of the down side will be when we hit the long term trend line-- i looked around abit and charted that when the average house is 175k in the usa this will be over. since now its about 206k--- 15% from here down-- remember though all is zip code centric-- also i think nyc will be the last one to take a big hit -------- any comments whytryexistent@yahoo.com

"the only people that is foreclosuring is theTHE FLIPER who got caught in the storm of greed." "and a recent Zillow.com survey indicates that a whopping 29.1% of homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth."

Slight misquote in the above article. What it really said was "29.1% of homeowners who purchased in the past five years are currently underwater on their mortgages" Note: Past 5 years. Still a huge number.

bindestreck: where did you get your info? "29.1% of homeowners who purchased in the past five years are currently underwater on their mortgages" Note: Past 5 years"

NR

What, do you think people stopped buying houses back in 2005/2006? You'll ALWAYS find a fool at ANY price. Bottom line, in Los Angeles, MOST of the inventory is still waaaay overpriced. It's the jobs stupid: who can afford those homes with traditional mortgage products? Even 3% gifted down doesn't make sense. Enjoy catching your knives.

What, do you think people stopped buying houses back in 2005/2006? You'll ALWAYS find a fool at ANY price. Bottom line, in Los Angeles, MOST of the inventory is still waaaay overpriced. It's the jobs stupid: who can afford those homes with traditional mortgage products? Even 3% gifted down doesn't make sense. Enjoy catching your knives.

Uh, no Gatorbunch, if "investors" are buying, that has no relevance as to the direction of home prices. The number of buyers needs to increase dramatically, and the supply of homes needs to halve (and that will take a long, long while). It's amazing that people wait with baited breath for something positive (anything!) out of these monthly reports. At the end of the day, real estate has a very long way to go --- and will overshoot the affordability level of (what is defined as) 2.5-3 times a household's gross income. If your house makes $200K, you should be buying a $600K home --- not $1.2MM by borrowing most of the mortgage and having lenders figure the price will go up so that you can borrow on the appreciation to pay your monthly mortgage debt one year at a time through refinancing. Investors actually AREN'T buying en masse right now (unless their not that smart or foreign still playing against a declining dollar) and those that are buying are either families that MUST move and buy another place (larger or smaller depending on their situation), those where money is not an issue, and the thousands of people that are looking at slight housing declines as a reason to pounce in before it all rebounds (the first time home buyers that feel this way -- and are completely wrong). Do a rent vs. buy analysis in your region (and don't buy into the "tax deductibility" rationale for buying a home unless you yourself can do the calculation -- because it's mostly a short term positive that STILL doesn't suggest buying vs. renting). 30% homeowners owe more in mortgage than house is worth (not surprised) Record inventory levels and rising (no kidding!) Tighter credit - so a large % of ppl (won't even get a mortgage) Rising unemployment This is going right into 2010....and when we get there, don't expect house prices to "bounce". How about they stay along the "affordability" line on the graph and rise at a similar pace to income? That would only be consistent with the rest of the historical analysis of real estate ....and as only few suggested this decade, and shouldn't be surprising to anyone..... This time WASN'T different for this asset class either. It never is. This is what these articles should say -- to educate people as to WHY things are happening rather than the headlines like "Case/Schiller Index states prices up 2%!!!". It's a median number!!! It's fairly useless as a gauge! If they started analyzing (as close as one can) comparables for nearly same homes year over year...you'd get more real numbers (and those aren't pretty). I wonder what's next (no not commodities because most of you aren't invested in commodities and it only because a mass issue when you're all in). Hope this helps you guys --- because I'm getting tired of the same -- waste of time spent with much of the media in how they choose to fill their space.

Uh, no Gatorbunch, if "investors" are buying, that has no relevance as to the direction of home prices. The number of buyers needs to increase dramatically, and the supply of homes needs to halve (and that will take a long, long while). It's amazing that people wait with baited breath for something positive (anything!) out of these monthly reports. At the end of the day, real estate has a very long way to go --- and will overshoot the affordability level of (what is defined as) 2.5-3 times a household's gross income. If your house makes $200K, you should be buying a $600K home --- not $1.2MM by borrowing most of the mortgage and having lenders figure the price will go up so that you can borrow on the appreciation to pay your monthly mortgage debt one year at a time through refinancing. Investors actually AREN'T buying en masse right now (unless their not that smart or foreign still playing against a declining dollar) and those that are buying are either families that MUST move and buy another place (larger or smaller depending on their situation), those where money is not an issue, and the thousands of people that are looking at slight housing declines as a reason to pounce in before it all rebounds (the first time home buyers that feel this way -- and are completely wrong). Do a rent vs. buy analysis in your region (and don't buy into the "tax deductibility" rationale for buying a home unless you yourself can do the calculation -- because it's mostly a short term positive that STILL doesn't suggest buying vs. renting). 30% homeowners owe more in mortgage than house is worth (not surprised) Record inventory levels and rising (no kidding!) Tighter credit - so a large % of ppl (won't even get a mortgage) Rising unemployment This is going right into 2010....and when we get there, don't expect house prices to "bounce". How about they stay along the "affordability" line on the graph and rise at a similar pace to income? That would only be consistent with the rest of the historical analysis of real estate ....and as only few suggested this decade, and shouldn't be surprising to anyone..... This time WASN'T different for this asset class either. It never is. This is what these articles should say -- to educate people as to WHY things are happening rather than the headlines like "Case/Schiller Index states prices up 2%!!!". It's a median number!!! It's fairly useless as a gauge! If they started analyzing (as close as one can) comparables for nearly same homes year over year...you'd get more real numbers (and those aren't pretty). I wonder what's next (no not commodities because most of you aren't invested in commodities and it only because a mass issue when you're all in). Hope this helps you guys --- because I'm getting tired of the same -- waste of time spent with much of the media in how they choose to fill their space.

Uh, no Gatorbunch, if "investors" are buying, that has no relevance as to the direction of home prices. The number of buyers needs to increase dramatically, and the supply of homes needs to halve (and that will take a long, long while). It's amazing that people wait with baited breath for something positive (anything!) out of these monthly reports. At the end of the day, real estate has a very long way to go --- and will overshoot the affordability level of (what is defined as) 2.5-3 times a household's gross income. If your house makes $200K, you should be buying a $600K home --- not $1.2MM by borrowing most of the mortgage and having lenders figure the price will go up so that you can borrow on the appreciation to pay your monthly mortgage debt one year at a time through refinancing. Investors actually AREN'T buying en masse right now (unless their not that smart or foreign still playing against a declining dollar) and those that are buying are either families that MUST move and buy another place (larger or smaller depending on their situation), those where money is not an issue, and the thousands of people that are looking at slight housing declines as a reason to pounce in before it all rebounds (the first time home buyers that feel this way -- and are completely wrong). ---- continued

Duh.... Bindestreck read the accompanying article. You know the one highlighted in blue where your cursor turns into a hand.... It's right there for you.

The whole economy rises and falls with employment,wages and industrial production. As production rises employment rises in direct proportion BUT wages do not rise in direct proportion----wages always lag behind. Thus until the USA begins to produce again with rising employment the with more wages the housing market will stabilize and eventually catch up. From my point of view the stablizing factor will occur in April [+/- 30 days ] in 2009. Just think 90 banks are under watch by the FDIC right now. By December 31 this will likely triple.

REITS and properties are the place to be. Sovereign funds are buying the homes. Investors are buying the homes. Why? appreciation. Economy is not bad at all. Don't listen to Hillary, Barak, and the other ignorant socialists. This is the time to buy. Like we did during Carter before the Reagon BOOOOOOM!

Could all of this simply be the result of an aging poulation leaving us with MORE houses than we could ever need? What about the speculators dumping their 2,3,4 or more "extra" houses? How about all the "vacation" homes. Many people die and leave 2 homes! This is not as unusual as some of you will think. McCain has 7+ homes - and although he has people in some of them, when he passes, there will a few more homes available. Tight credit keeps those wanting out of apts, in them. All in all, there are FAR too many houses than people who want one. SIMPLE SUPPLY AND DEMAND. New construction? Are you kidding me?!