Friday, November 21, 2008, 10:42PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Strong GDP Report 'High Watermark' for U.S., Not Sign of Upturn, Economist Says

Posted Aug 29, 2008 06:00am EDT by Aaron Task

Updated from 6:00 a.m. EDT

Lost a bit amid vacations, stay-cations and the Democratic convention, a series of reports this week have shown the U.S. economy to be in not as terrible shape as many believed.

A trio of reports Monday and Tuesday showed some glimmers of hope that the housing market's descent has slowed - a key first step toward a bottom (however tentative.)

Wednesday and Thursday brought more unambiguously positive data - at least the headlines - in the form of stronger-than-expected reports on July durable goods and second-quarter GDP.

But "don't get too excited" about the data, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at Merk Investments, a California-based mutual fund family with over $430 million of assets under management.

Update: As Brusuelas predicted in the accompanying video, Friday's personal income and spending data marked a "180 degree" turn from the strong reports earlier in the week.

  • Personal income fell 0.7% in July, the sharpest decline since after Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. The consensus was for income to stay flat last month.
  • Consumer spending rose 0.2%, as expected. But that's the slowest gain since February, and spending dropped 0.4% on an inflation-adjusted basis, the biggest slide in four years.
  • The personal consumption expenditures index rose 4.5%, the steepest since February 1991. Core PCE rose 2.4%, the biggest gain since February 2007 and well above the Fed's "comfort zone"; but don't expect a rate hike anytime soon, as Brusuelas and I discuss in the accompanying video.

As with other economists, Brusuelas notes the 3.3% second-quarter GDP figure was goosed by the one-time factor of tax rebate checks. There will be a "payback" for the fiscal stimulus in the third- and fourth-quarters, the economist says, predicting a very soft holiday shopping season.

Second-quarter GDP got an even bigger boost from export growth, which may wane as the dollar has strengthened and the global economy has slowed.

For these and other reasons, most notably higher inflation, Brusuelas believes the second-quarter GDP will prove to be the "high watermark" for the U.S. economy until the second half of 2009. He predicts a "weak recovery" will then ensue.

One risk to Brusuelas' already tepid outlook: A Barack Obama victory in November, as discussed here.

28 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 07:52AM EDT

You've got to stop the noise in the background. Can Yahoo not afford a quiet space to interview these people?

Johnny Ike
Johnny Ike - Friday August 29, 2008 07:55AM EDT

What do you expect strong recovery at once....Al recovery are slow if not gradual in this kind of market.....Remeber we are still on the bear market..If recovery is better on the last quarter of 2009 as I said slow it will continue until the end of April 2009.The second half or the year 2009 from July to September again 2009 will determind where the market is heading. If the market that time made a good progress then I believed the recovery is in full swing. Good luck.

you
mrgordo - Friday August 29, 2008 08:57AM EDT

More negativism from YHOO. I guess if your CEO craters your stock, negativism will prevail.

you
DocSJM - Friday August 29, 2008 09:06AM EDT

As long as we keep borrowing money from China and Saudi Arabia and as long as we keep printing money out of thin air and as long as the rest of the world can buy cheap American products as a result of the feeble dollar, the economy can continue to look good -- until it collapses. None of these Band-Aids is sustainable and each has a serious negative side. As Obama said, Republican financial mismanagement has incurred a massive debt for our children without their consent.

you
banval - Friday August 29, 2008 09:14AM EDT

Remember what Reagan said about economists...this guy doesn't know anything...

you
idledpc - Friday August 29, 2008 09:22AM EDT

Come on! These guys always have a different spin. If GDP was low, we're in trouble. If it's higher than expected, it because of the stimulus check. Not too long ago, these are the same guys that said that stimulus check is already used and predicted that the GDP reported in 3rd quarter won't be good.

you
Mark A - Friday August 29, 2008 09:25AM EDT

Why do these guys have nothing positive to say. Every day it's more gloom and doom. I don't think these people know what they are talking about. Just another talking head, spouting empty words just to hear themselves talk. Blah, blah, blah . . .

you
The Hern - Friday August 29, 2008 09:40AM EDT

This guy was probably saying that 2nd qtr GDP would be bad instead of the excellent performance we saw. Some people just don't want to give this economy a chance. You've all heard of the half empty/half full glass. Well, you know where this guy stands. If we all try to be more optimistic and just acknowledge the occasional positive results in the economy, maybe we can change attitudes and that will go along way to improving things.

you
jimjdsdsoi - Friday August 29, 2008 09:52AM EDT

he is not pessimistic..just REALISTIC.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 09:55AM EDT

Docsjm needs to learn which branch of government approves the budget. The economy is result of Congress and the economy went to crap under the Democrats. No wonder their approval rating is so low.

you
hey123buybuy - Friday August 29, 2008 10:08AM EDT

We live in an era of drug addled idlers who believe if it happens in your mind, it is the same as happening in the physical universe. Therefore, they believe that what you think controls what happens in the world. Therefore, we should all think happy thoughts and the world would be a better place! Oops...except that guess what? That isn't how it works. Action, reaction. Cause and effect. Sowing and reaping. We have had a credit party for so long )even my cat has a Visa card) we think there is no payback day due, but that day is here. Get used to it.

caadam2@sbcglobal.net
caadam2@sbcglobal.net - Friday August 29, 2008 10:10AM EDT

We can rehash this ad nauseum, but the basic facts seem clear: everyone's stocks got "cratered" on the Republican's watch. The dollar, in real terms, is worth less than one third of what it was when Bush took office. Debt is crushing every effort at a positive rally before it can get off the ground, with very real bad news about bank closures, wall street icons failing left and right, the bizarre twist of the fed socializing the foundations of our finacial system to preserve the illusion of stability, and the middle class starving in the streets as the unemployment checks stop coming in. Those were the folks who accounted for two thirds of the gdp when the federal government actually took care of business instead of sucking up to lobbyists and sponsors- by which I mean those who fund their campaigns. There are always consequences for mismanagement- unfortunately, those consequences will clearly fall onto our children as they struggle to rescue something of value from the ashes. Doom and gloom indeed- so please, stop insulting everyone's intelligence by trying to put lip gloss on the corpse of the american dream. Yes, the economy will recover- but we have some very hard times to go through first.

you
sophiestickit - Friday August 29, 2008 10:46AM EDT

Yahoo! Finance User, your partisanship is showing. The Democrats, as a whole, have plenty to answer for, but it's just silly to suggest that they have enough power to impact the economy in a Congress where they hold only a slight majority, with the Republicans setting fillibuster records. And ignoring the effects of a Republican President who didn't veto a spending bill for 6 years, ballooning deficits, an expensive war that's not even included in the budget, the multi-year explosion of oil and commodity prices, etc., etc.? Puhlease! The real world is nowhere near as simple as your ridiculous fantasy world.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 10:52AM EDT

I grew up in a household where Barry Goldwater was revered and have been a Republican all my life. I don't know who these people (the current administration) are, but they are most certainly not Republicans. Neocons perhaps, but with the emphasis on the 'con' . I always had a certain unease about Reaganomics and 'trickle down theory' and now that the current group has let the foxes (and wolves) into the henhouse, all we can do is sit and wait for China, etal to decide that we are no longer good for the trillions of debt that they have been financing for us. Excuse me while I go out in the back yard and bury some gold.

James L
James L - Friday August 29, 2008 10:53AM EDT

Banks are greedy. People are greedier. Many Americans made bad real estate investments and are more then happy to file bankruptcy and let the banks take the fall. Even if they are offered a 1 percent interest rate for their mortgage. Is the glass half full? All mutual fund directors and advertising dollars need for you to believe the economy is 3/4 full to kkeep their financial lives afloat. They are playing russian roulette with your life savings so keep investing in the market and see what happens.

you
razormd - Friday August 29, 2008 10:59AM EDT

...oh, look, they're interviewing "fatbastard" again..."chief economist" of Merk Investments?...what a joke!...Merk's a piddly little southern California company that manages two dinky mutual funds not even two years old...come on, Yahoo!...I could find more reliable sources information in the bathroom stalls of the local Greyhound bus station!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 11:01AM EDT

time to invest heavily in the market. the negative, cynical,doomsday noise on tech ticker (both from the "experts" and those who think they are) has hit a peak. Tech Ticker will soon be cited as a classic contrarian indicator.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 11:05AM EDT

It is fine to raise taxes on income greater than 250K, but maybe it is time to adjsut this threshold depending on where we live. 250k in the midwest goes a lot further than 250k in NYC. Federal employees recieve COLA (Cost of Living Adjustments) depending on their location. Maybe it is about time the government extends this same courtesy to NON civil servants.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 11:18AM EDT

All the government data is B@#$h$%t. Make adjustments for inflation and we are up to the nose in depression, and its only the beginning. Why Europe provides inflation adjusted data and USA always put adjustments into far dark corner?

you
hippiness1 - Friday August 29, 2008 11:20AM EDT

caadam2, the weak dollar is the REASON the GDP numbers were up. Why do you think that is bad? Also, I didn't realize that natural business cycles were actually mismanagement cycles. Please show me the evidence to your new theory that will ROCK the world of economics!

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