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Deficits Do Matter: Economist Sees More Inflation, Higher Taxes, Less Benefits

Posted Aug 29, 2008 11:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession, Banking
Dick Cheney was right when he said "deficits don't matter" -- but only from a political standpoint, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at Merk Investments.

Although interest rates remain historically low, Brusuelas says deficits definitely do matter from an economic perspective. The U.S. current account and fiscal deficits (a.k.a. the twin deficits) have directly resulted in "reduced purchasing power of the U.S. dollar" since 2002, meaning "higher inflation and a reduced standard of living for all Americans," he says. (The economist - who helps set strategy for the Merk Hard Currency fund - is not a believer the dollar's recent bounce is sustainable.)

Looking ahead, Brusuelas sees the U.S. federal deficit reaching $550 billion to $600 billion in fiscal 2009, which begins Oct. 1, up from the CBO's estimated $400 billion deficit in fiscal 2008.

In addition to increased spending by whoever becomes President, Brusuelas sees a likely need to aid the FDIC with problem banks, as well as potential bailouts of GM and/or Ford. And let's not forget, the official federal deficit stats don't count "off the book" transactions to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, he notes.

As bad as that sounds (and is) Brusuelas says what he calls "Globalization 2.0" is being characterized by emerging market economies spending more money at home on infrastructure vs. exporting deflation and capital to the U.S. as in "1.0."

"The free ride we've gotten from the global economy visa vis massive injections of [foreign] capital may not hold," he warns. As a reult, Americans should brace themselves for having to work longer, with reduced benefits while likely paying higher interest rates and taxes. (Good times!)

In the end, and going forward, deficits very much do matter.

40 Comments

Ronald
Ronald - Friday August 29, 2008 12:33PM EDT

As long as we keep electing these "self-serving" politicians,and don't require term-limits,they will keep treating the American People,like a baby treats a "diaper" They are all a bunch of egotistical thieves! History has proven that.Who ever thought that an alcholic would be "cowboy" from Texas,would be anything other than what he Is. The "worst" President,we have ever had!

Butch
Butch - Friday August 29, 2008 12:34PM EDT

Under the first neo con president Richard Nixon, who was influenced by the biggest non-nationalist Henry Kissenger, the last trade surplus was eradicated, and we quickly became major importer. At the same time Nixon took us off the gold standard which was linked to the dollar.At that time the dollar was actually worth the equivilent of some portion of gold. All of a sudden the dolar became paper only subject to the printing press. It took a while and then under Carter those too many dollars came to a head, and inflation was out of control. When Reagan took over he simply revamped inflation statistics taking out fuel, housing, and those items devined as "long one time" items. Overnight inflation came down, as the factors that created inflation were eliminated. Soon with "inflation" under control the tax reduction was implemented. Here's the problem inflation still exists, if the same statistics used under Carter were still in place. How to deal with inflation raise interest rates, or print less money, or raise taxes. If you don't do this the currency is worth less Here we are today with more money printed, less taxes, and lower interest rates, and the dollar is worthless. [yes it rises against other currencies sometimes not because our situation is better but other countries get worse] Now all that money in other countries hands must be either reinvested back in America, but with low yields, higher true inflation, and shaky financial institutions, thats not going to happen. Instead they will buy our copporations, our commodities, agriculture, and assets, even our ports, and national defence companies. So look at exports increasing but it will be what made America strong. Look for continued "true" inflation as we priint more money, while we're flooded with old money. This is not your Fathers economics anymore. We're headed for rough times ahead.

Paul
Paul - Friday August 29, 2008 12:43PM EDT

Aaron, very good interview. Things in America have to change and at least you are trying to get that across. Keep it up mate.

David
David - Friday August 29, 2008 12:46PM EDT

You've gotta love it. Here, at the end of Milton Friedman's experiment with deficits-don't-matter, some of us that saw this coming 25 years ago can enjoy the shadenfreude ... until we remember that the work-until-you-die crowd will have us Boomers leading the way. On the up side, we are in no where near as serious trouble as the world faced in the 1930s. We just need to find a more positive recovery path than fighting another global war. On the down side, the pain is just starting and will be a long time leaving. If we have to take a beating, we may as well take it doing something smart. We can start with energy and infrastructure.

Vern V
Vern V - Friday August 29, 2008 12:53PM EDT

Republican economic policy has given my $1500 a year for 8 years, and taken away 3400 a month for 18 months from my retirement after I turn 65. Also, the deficit may have eliminate my son's chance at retirement. The mortgaging of our future is a disgrace. G Dub Bush deserves to live the rest of his life in disgrace as he will.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 12:57PM EDT

Daffy_rox_yoursox - How far down did the debt go? Remember that many of the company's whose stocks that were going up and up and up during the Clinton years were later discovered to be cooking their books! And are you so naive to believe that Democrats don't pay for pork?

"Jackson Cash"
"Jackson Cash" - Friday August 29, 2008 01:15PM EDT

THROW THE BUMS OUT! ALL OF THEM. Also, no thanks to all you boomers (yep, the entire out of control generation) that have selfishly sacrificed the America I will inherit by letting your government steamroller you from the deplorable/crooked Johnson administration onward. Because I'm not in the 10 million dollar entitlement "club", the United States is nothing but disaster looming for me and my future kids... There is more to life than money- I wish our nation reflected that.

JK
JK - Friday August 29, 2008 01:31PM EDT

This guy just reiterates the same underlying idea that both Buffett and Greenspan lectured on in guest appearances at a couple universities, which largely went under the radar. The US needs to make a lot of difficult changes or else risk becoming a third-rate country in 20 or so years... Too bad most people don't care about the future that far down the line.

David
David - Friday August 29, 2008 02:13PM EDT

Almost 100% of the problems we're facing can be laid at the feet of Milton Friedman and, by implication, Hayek and the other members of the Austrian School. They created a brand of Kool-Aid that they dearly loved, and drank it themselves. Sorry, but 'markets' are not magic, and certain market leaders can lead 'the market' off a cliff, if they don't watch it. Paul Krugman has been saying this for years. So have others. It may be time to admit that a few of the safeguards that we abandoned in the last few years, restrained growth but created stability. The Glass-Steagall Act comes to mind. We'll have to go back to the old way ... the hard way.

Stuart
Stuart - Friday August 29, 2008 02:14PM EDT

McCain now picks a trust fund baby for VP. Alaska government is operated on oil royalities alone. A totally different economy in alaska verus the continental US . The state is a resource extraction only economy, they do nat make a thing. Managing a government where you do have to tax anyone or business other than oil per se is a dream world. The only economy in the states thats similar is Nevada with gaming revenues.. The point is the leadership displayed here is amazing, this not what we need right now. McCain is totally out of touch.

ED
ED - Friday August 29, 2008 03:55PM EDT

jim: you can come out of the cave you,ve been in the last 8 years.

Fred
Fred - Friday August 29, 2008 03:58PM EDT

Who Cares.... According to Obama if he is elected President he will fix all these problems..... LOL!!!!!!!

Balasubramanian
Balasubramanian - Friday August 29, 2008 09:12PM EDT

dphorn47, It would be good if you were to provide substantiation for your remark on the Austrian economists. The fact is that you are completely off the mark. This problem started a couple of centuries ago and was not the creation of the Austrian School. The genesis of this problem is in the printing of fiat money by Government. Such paper money is inherently inflationary, causes repeated and large-scale malinvestment and thus leads to the phenomenon of economic cycles. All recessions and depressions are caused ONLY by fiat money. No one has highlighted this other than the Austrian economists. In case you want to understand this, read "The Mystery of Banking" by Murray N Rothbard. It's quite an education. The main failing of the Austrian School MORAL. By not denouncing fiat money as immoral and thus wrong, they have failed to make a strong case for the return of the Gold Standard, the only real solution to this mess.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday August 29, 2008 09:36PM EDT

We always concern ourself with fiscal debt, a yearly number; how many trillion is our accumulative debt????? Can we even comprehend such a staggering sum? We have lived high on the hog with an unpaid for war, unbalanced trade while spending the social security trust money.

Kenneth
Kenneth - Friday August 29, 2008 09:38PM EDT

WHEN WILL THIS WONDERFUL COUNTRY CALLED THE USA ,,,, HA HA HA HA HA ,,, WHAT A JOKE , EVER WAKE UP AND OPEN THEIR EYE`S TO THE STRAIGHT FACT THAT ALL TYPES OF GOVERNMENT IS CONTROLLED AND RUN BY NOTHING OTHER THEN RICH LEGAL CROOKS THAT ARE ALLREADY RICH AS HELL WHEN THEY ARE ELECTED ,THEY GET RICHER EACH DAY AS THEY ROB THE POOR MAN TRYING TO SURVIVE THRU LIFE , AS THEY ARE PAID MILLIONS OF DOLLARS EACH YEAR NO EXPENSE`S WHAT SO EVER TO PAY OUT , GAS , FOOD OR LIVING QUARTERS FREE NO CHARGES ON ANYTHING TO HAVE TO PAY . THEN THEY GET MILLIONS MORE IN ALL TYPE`S OF BONAS`S EACH YEAR PLUS HUGE BONAS`S WHEN THEY ARE FORCED OUT OF OFFICE BY THE NEXT RICH CROOK MOVING IN TO TAKE THEIR PLACE . ALL OF THIS IS PAID BY THE TAX PAYER`S , INCOME TAX`S, FEDERAL TAX`S,CITY TAX`S ,COUNTY TAX`S ,SOCIAL SECURITY . WHICH A LOT OF YOUNGER WORKER`S WILL PROBABLY NEVER SEE AGAIN.,, WILL THES RICH CROOKS SMILE AND GRIN , SCRATCH THEIR HEADS WHILE DEEP THINKING OF SOMETHING NEW TO GET MORE MILLIONS IN THEIR POCKETS .,,,, OH YES , ONE OTHER THING , IF YOU MESS WITH STOCKS YOU ARE PLAYING A LOSER `S GAME , IT ALSO IS CONTROLLED BY CROOKS ON THE MARKET , SEC ( SECURETY EXCHANGE COMMISSION ) IS NO. 1 ,,, MM`S ( MARKET MAKER`S THEY ARE CALLED ) IS NO. 2 ,,, BROKERS ARE NO. 3 ,,, AND SHORT SELLERS ARE NO. 4 , THEY ALL WORK TOGETHER TO ROB THE SHAREHOLDERS WHO THINK THEY ARE GOING TO STRIKE IT RICH ,,, LOL ,,, ONLY THE RICH GET RICHER ON THE STOCK MARKET WELL KNOWN FACT ,,, THATS ALL FOLKS

Kenneth
Kenneth - Friday August 29, 2008 09:38PM EDT

WHEN WILL THIS WONDERFUL COUNTRY CALLED THE USA ,,,, HA HA HA HA HA ,,, WHAT A JOKE , EVER WAKE UP AND OPEN THEIR EYE`S TO THE STRAIGHT FACT THAT ALL TYPES OF GOVERNMENT IS CONTROLLED AND RUN BY NOTHING OTHER THEN RICH LEGAL CROOKS THAT ARE ALLREADY RICH AS HELL WHEN THEY ARE ELECTED ,THEY GET RICHER EACH DAY AS THEY ROB THE POOR MAN TRYING TO SURVIVE THRU LIFE , AS THEY ARE PAID MILLIONS OF DOLLARS EACH YEAR NO EXPENSE`S WHAT SO EVER TO PAY OUT , GAS , FOOD OR LIVING QUARTERS FREE NO CHARGES ON ANYTHING TO HAVE TO PAY . THEN THEY GET MILLIONS MORE IN ALL TYPE`S OF BONAS`S EACH YEAR PLUS HUGE BONAS`S WHEN THEY ARE FORCED OUT OF OFFICE BY THE NEXT RICH CROOK MOVING IN TO TAKE THEIR PLACE . ALL OF THIS IS PAID BY THE TAX PAYER`S , INCOME TAX`S, FEDERAL TAX`S,CITY TAX`S ,COUNTY TAX`S ,SOCIAL SECURITY . WHICH A LOT OF YOUNGER WORKER`S WILL PROBABLY NEVER SEE AGAIN.,, WILL THES RICH CROOKS SMILE AND GRIN , SCRATCH THEIR HEADS WHILE DEEP THINKING OF SOMETHING NEW TO GET MORE MILLIONS IN THEIR POCKETS .,,,, OH YES , ONE OTHER THING , IF YOU MESS WITH STOCKS YOU ARE PLAYING A LOSER `S GAME , IT ALSO IS CONTROLLED BY CROOKS ON THE MARKET , SEC ( SECURETY EXCHANGE COMMISSION ) IS NO. 1 ,,, MM`S ( MARKET MAKER`S THEY ARE CALLED ) IS NO. 2 ,,, BROKERS ARE NO. 3 ,,, AND SHORT SELLERS ARE NO. 4 , THEY ALL WORK TOGETHER TO ROB THE SHAREHOLDERS WHO THINK THEY ARE GOING TO STRIKE IT RICH ,,, LOL ,,, ONLY THE RICH GET RICHER ON THE STOCK MARKET WELL KNOWN FACT ,,, THATS ALL FOLKS

d c
d c - Friday September 05, 2008 10:19AM EDT

Remember, Medicare is OFF-THE-BOOKS. Even those with private-medical insurance and pension, every retiree gets health care costs handed off to government Medicare (paid for by all.) With people living longer, an increasing years of American life, health care will be paid for by SOCIALIZED MEDICINE. (booo!!!!) We already have an immense and growing socialized medicine machine -- going to and protected by the strongest voting block. . None of this immense future liability is even counted in the "deficit"

Kenneth
Kenneth - Friday August 29, 2008 10:55PM EDT

WELLL LLLLLLL , IF THIS GREAT COUNTRY HAS DECIDED TO GO BLACK W / A PRESIDENT , WHO EVER IT IS ,,, I DONT THINK HE OR SHE COULD BE MUCH WORSE THEN ANY OTHER OF THE RICH , STUPID , WAR LOVING BASTURDS WE HAVE ALLREADY HAD. BUT, IF WE ARE GOING BLACK , IT WOULD BE WISE TO ELECT SOMEONE LIKE MICHEAL JACKSON , SINCE HE LOVE`S TO ( PLAY ) HUMMMMMMM ,,, WITH LITTLE BOYS , SPEND MILLIONS AND GO BANKRUPT , BETTER YET A NICE BIG BLACK GORELLA FROM AFRICA WOULD FIT RITE IN , ALLREADY DUMB , STUPID , IGNORANT AND DONT EVEN KNOW WHAT MONEY IS .OR IF WE GO LADY STYLE BRITNEY SPEARS WOULD MAKE A GOOD ONE ,VERY PREATTY , VERY SEXY , WELL EXPEREANCED ON SPENDING MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON USELESS ITEMS ,, NO BRAINS AND STUPID AS HELL. WELL PREPARED FOR A PRESIDENT .REALLY THOUGH I THINK A NEW PRES. IMPORTED OUT OF HONG KONG , CHINA WOULD BE THE BEST ,, CHINESE ARE VERY SMART ON MAKING MONEY , WITHOUT WASTING IT AWAY. THATS ALL FOLKS.............. ....

Kenneth
Kenneth - Friday August 29, 2008 10:56PM EDT

WELLL LLLLLLL , IF THIS GREAT COUNTRY HAS DECIDED TO GO BLACK W / A PRESIDENT , WHO EVER IT IS ,,, I DONT THINK HE OR SHE COULD BE MUCH WORSE THEN ANY OTHER OF THE RICH , STUPID , WAR LOVING BASTURDS WE HAVE ALLREADY HAD. BUT, IF WE ARE GOING BLACK , IT WOULD BE WISE TO ELECT SOMEONE LIKE MICHEAL JACKSON , SINCE HE LOVE`S TO ( PLAY ) HUMMMMMMM ,,, WITH LITTLE BOYS , SPEND MILLIONS AND GO BANKRUPT , BETTER YET A NICE BIG BLACK GORELLA FROM AFRICA WOULD FIT RITE IN , ALLREADY DUMB , STUPID , IGNORANT AND DONT EVEN KNOW WHAT MONEY IS .OR IF WE GO LADY STYLE BRITNEY SPEARS WOULD MAKE A GOOD ONE ,VERY PREATTY , VERY SEXY , WELL EXPEREANCED ON SPENDING MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON USELESS ITEMS ,, NO BRAINS AND STUPID AS HELL. WELL PREPARED FOR A PRESIDENT .REALLY THOUGH I THINK A NEW PRES. IMPORTED OUT OF HONG KONG , CHINA WOULD BE THE BEST ,, CHINESE ARE VERY SMART ON MAKING MONEY , WITHOUT WASTING IT AWAY. THATS ALL FOLKS.............. ....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Saturday August 30, 2008 06:35AM EDT

YOUR FIRED GET THE HELL OUT NOW AND PUT BACK WHAT YOU STOLE

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