Friday, November 21, 2008, 10:48PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Eight years ago, Yale superstar professor and MacroMarkets chief economist Robert Shiller famously called the top of the stock market in his book Irrational Exuberance. Then, a year before the housing bubble peaked, he predicted the colossal bust we are now experiencing.
If you recognize Shiller's name, it’s because the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price indexes, which he developed with Wellesley College economist Karl Case, have become the nation's most authoritative source for home price trends.
In part one of my one-on-one with Shiller, we discuss the grim outlook for U.S. housing, which he tackles in-depth in his new book The Subprime Solution. Highlights of our first discussion include:
The truth hurts but it must be addressed if any economic solutions can be developed. Unfortunately both candidates are ignoring this giant problem. Probably because they do not have the courage or answers to discuss with the American people. Sad, really sad.
I love the post closing credits clip of Henry taking a drink.
Exactly...more on the downside in real estate...buy today and your equity/down payment vanishes almost instantly.
The more you guys "Squwak" the more we get close to the eventual bottoming process. Can you tell your wife and family you will never own a house (again)? I would be in big trouble with that attitude! Lots of pent up demand.
very true.housing is abust for good.the us economy is also kaput--our airlines,auto industry,banks are bankrupt.china,india,japan,singapore and russia are now our bankers and we depend on them for money.so much for american capitalism.maybe we need to hire asian managers to run our corporationsn .soon they will own the us anyway.
hahaha!!good one bugman29102. u r hilarious now lets talk reality. sad very sad
The ox will continue to plow and weed out the weeds.
Agree, I am seeing a lot of folks that are still disgusted or simply can't afford home prices even at their current levels. Housing prices doubled on the Easy and West coast and in some other areas in 4 - 5 years, and have dropped a measley 20% IN SOME AREAS during the last 2 years, and NOW we're allegedly reaching a market bottom? Whatever minimal uptick in activity we're seeing, is summertime/optimal buying season, along with some bottom feeders hoping they're actually at a bottom or trying to snarf up give away prices, and yet there's still record level of inventory of unsold houses available.
The housing market as far as pricing of them has a long way to drop if we expect real people to own them. Everything in the economy from CEOs' pays, executives pays are way out of line to what lifestyle the majority of the population earns. The salaries of all these economists, traders and fund managers don't support what they contribute to the general population. They are the ones that put the system out of whack and soon they will be the ones footing the bill. They evaluated the prices for all this subprime mess. The population is wearing out. Its time for them to empty their pockets.
What articles like this fail to mention (time and time again) is that Real Estate is very localized. There was no Bubble in Georgia or Texas or North Carolina. These places have been coasting along at 3-5% apreciation a year or less. Places like FL, CA, AZ, NV has seen 200%-300% apreciation over the past 8 years. A correction of 50% in those area's is far from a "Bust".
If you need aplace to live for the next 10 years, want to develop some equity, and have stable employment, what a great time to buy a well located house ! This opportunity may not come around again for another 50 years. Its only gloom and doom if you've spent above your means.
the us is finito.from creditor nation to debtor nation to beggar nation
Blodget? Don't they maake commercial stoves? And this guy was ousted as an anal-yst a few years back? That's the trouble with the media..and sometimes our wonderful country..that allows negative thinking to influence the public. The multi-crisis' will be over when they're over..whenever that might be!
Bugman29102 must have typed this while still in La la land. Stick your head in the sand and hope that a presidential candidate who admits to knowing nothing about "Economics"...and a Veep whose qualifications are give-birth-no-matter the cost and I-ran-a-town-of-6k-people, get you out......!!! Getting away from politics though, Attitude is not the problem. Issue is how to deal with this correction currently going on. It's rectifiable (although tight) but will need hard answers to hard questions. Looking at that deficit, looking at the manufacturing jobs, predatory creative lending practices, healthcare, govt spending (thanks G.W)...etc
Slice it or dice it anyway you want...we're already poised for the next Great Depression. Walk into any Edward Jones office and see the poster of the historical cyclical trends in the U.S. stock market. A depression occurs every 75 years! Read the Dollar Collapse. The U.S. economy is so powerful that it can swing global economies. This is all explained in this book: of other countries who tried to outwit the market with housing run-ups...it had dire counsequences for their country's long term financial wellbeing. Sorry, I'm not a gloom and doomer, I just report the facts!
People need to stop generalizing. Yes, parts of Florida, California, Nevada, and Arizona have big housing problems because too many builders all wanted a piece of the action in those markets and they built too many homes too quickly. Also, there were too many speculators buying homes in those regions. In most other parts of the country the housing has not dropped as much and in many places, like parts of the northeast, it is already leveling off. Remember, in housing its always location, location, location.
Remember to vote Obama/Biden. None of us can afford the Bush/McCain agenda anymore.
Can we short sell real estate hahaha
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Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday September 04, 2008 01:46PM EDT
I agree. House prices will continue to decline for at least another 3-5 years in some parts of the country, especially southern california.