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The Great Debate: What Should Be Done About the Bush Tax Cuts?

Posted Jul 30, 2010 07:01am EDT by Peter Gorenstein

The countdown has begun. The Bush tax cuts don’t expire until the end of the year but Fox Business News has begun airing "countdown" segments, as of late, claiming the end of tax cuts will lead to the “Largest Tax Hike Ever.”

Hyperbole?

Certainly, but taxes will be a major issue on the campaign trail this midterm election. President Obama says he wants to keep the tax cuts in place for all except the top 2% of households earning above $250,000 annually. Republicans say allowing the cuts to expire as scheduled would hurt small businesses that file individual tax returns.

Even Democrats are conflicted.

As reported in the San Francisco Chronicle, Obama economic adviser Christian Romer and her husband David recently published a report claiming: "tax increases appear to have a very large, sustained and highly negative impact on output" while "tax cuts have very large and persistent positive output effects." 

Romer later seemingly switched positions, writing in a blog, "extending the high-income tax cuts would provide very little job creation in 2011."

Tech Ticker interviewed Brian Bethune, IHS Global Insight’s chief U.S. financial economist about this subject. “Any tax increase no matter what form, whether that’s personal income tax or corporate taxes, effectively creates a drag on the economy,” he says. “This could really be a damper on overall spending.”

Echoing statements Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke made to Congress last week, Bethune tells Aaron, “it would probably be a good idea just to extend for another year just to avoid creating a shock for the economy.”

“You do not want at this phase of the business cycle to create any discouragements for entrepreneurs or small businessmen or self-employed people to expand what they’re doing to invest to hire more people,” Bethune laments.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner seems to disagree. Making the rounds on the Sunday talk show circuit last weekend, Geithner said since the end of tax cuts would only effect 2-3% of the population they would help shrink the deficit without hurting the recovery.

On ABC This Week Geithner said: “We need to make sure we can show the world that we’re willing, as a country, now to start to make some progress bringing down our long, our long-term deficits… I do not believe it would have a negative effect on growth.”

The countdown continues but the debate has just begun.

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230 comments

  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Honorabletoad Mon Aug 02, 2010 08:00 am EDT Report Abuse
    Tax the responsible, breed the irresponsible. Where will that eventually lead?
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    picomanning Mon Aug 02, 2010 03:29 am EDT Report Abuse
    Maybe the question should be, who do you think will be more responsible with money, those who've earned it, or the government who can't abide by any budget. Ending the tax cuts and dumping billions more into the hands of our incompetent politicians is to hasten our decline and place the odds further against our economic recovery. Keep in mind that 70% of taxes paid are paid by 10% of earners. These successful Americans will be sacrificed to temporarily save incompetent politicians. It treats a symtom and our liberal government is in fiscal denial. Our government must CUT government spending as it also must cut taxes. Spending cuts must however exceed tax cuts as the only meaningful tool to patch the holes in our economic hull. The demand for more taxes can be compared with more heroine for political addicts who will do anything to satisfy their spending cravings. But our politicians do not tax for public projects. They tax now out of desparation! They don't get it. They are the problem and the public must see this reality before it's too late. The November elections WILL be our last chance! Believe it!
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    J D Sun Aug 01, 2010 02:37 am EDT Report Abuse
    <>

    Jeez, people. What is up with the rampant illiteracy? The tax cuts will not EFFECT; anybody. However, they may AFFECT many. The fact that a site like Yahoo does not know the difference between effect and affect tells me right there that we need to increase spending on education. At present we have the illiterate leading the even more illiterate. That is a situation that can come to no good, since human understanding will simply devolve (and clearly, in the USA, is devolving as we speak) into rampant nonsense. This must explain the runaway popularity of characters like Glenn Beck and his ilk. If you are too poorly educated to distinguish between paranoia and wisdom, then you are bound to be affected (not effected) by the consequences of the gaps in your understanding.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Joel, center right politi ... Fri Jul 30, 2010 06:52 pm EDT Report Abuse
    1917

    Marginal Fed tax rate increased to 65% from practically nothing. real GDP growth rates of 13% follows.

    1942

    Marginal Fed tax rate increased from 65% to 94%. Real GDP growth rates of 17% follows.

    1862

    Federal income tax introduced, 5% at the marginal. Real GDP growth rates of 10% (until the South started getting trashed badly).
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Joel, center right politi ... Fri Jul 30, 2010 06:08 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Jacking taxes up on the rich Jabbas and getting it to the bottom 90% have shown time and time again to be absolutely consistently excellent for economic growth. The trick is of course getting it to the bottom 90%. And that's a trick that none of these Fascist clowns are willing to do unlike the 1930s and 1940s, WWI, ACW etc.... (Adding 6% to the Fed. marginal rate is nowhere near enough to do any significant good). We're looking at the necessity for FDR job programs again as well as paying down the debt. Much of the massively increased revenue will also need to be consumed by government at the same time as well. The days of erroneous thinking that the economy can grow by eternally stuffing the pockets of the rich Jabbas exclusively so they can wad it up into balls and play tennis with each other with it should be over for all times, but it wont be in reality. At least not until 2012. ;-)
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Quick Fri Jul 30, 2010 05:06 pm EDT Report Abuse
    By the way the money paid into the SS "trust" fund by the Boomers for their future benefits is not a small amount -- $2.4 TRILLION. Now the government will have to raise a similar amount over the next several decades in MORE taxes or MORE debt for the "trust" fund to pay the SS benefits of the Boomer Bulge.
  • A Yahoo! User
    1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Fri Jul 30, 2010 05:02 pm EDT Report Abuse
    If tax cut is so great since Bush Tax Cut from 2001-2004,with huge spending pile up 13 trillion,why middle class losing members,feels doom,don't feel so great at all,only the rich feels great.Does Bush Tax Cut needs more time to finish the jobs.Why still struggle?Why 'Oba-care' wins election 2008?
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Quick Fri Jul 30, 2010 04:59 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Sorry about the double post. System said there an "internal failure" the first time I posted it -- and did not give the message that my message had been posted. So I posted again.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Quick Fri Jul 30, 2010 04:53 pm EDT Report Abuse
    A good example of a tax increase and what politicians would do with it is the payroll tax. In 1983 Social Security taxes were increased. The retirement age of Baby Boomers was also increased to 66 and 67. The Baby Boomers were told that the extra money would be accumulated in the SS "trust" fund so that it could pay their benefits when the Baby Boom Bulge began to hit SS in the 2010's.

    But this money in the SS "trust" fund was not independently managed like most private and state pension funds. Nor was it invested in marketable securities like municipal and corporate bonds, marketable US Treasury bonds, stock funds, CD's, repurchase agreements, income contracts and other securities like those of private and state pension funds. Instead it went into "special" non-marketable Treasury bonds that did not pay a competitive rate for most of the past 27 years.

    Worse yet, the Congressmen of BOTH parties treated the SS "trust" fund as their own personal slush fund to pay for the various pork-barrel earmarks that they created. The money that they took from the "trust" fund in return for the "special" IOU's was not counted as a debt, but as "income" and applied against the reported annual spending deficit -- making it look smaller.

    Now the ponzi scheme is falling apart because the Boomers have reached retirement age -- and there is nothing in the "trust" fund but the "special" bonds. The government will have to now raise taxes AGAIN or issue more debt AGAIN to repay the IOU's so that the Boomers can get their SS benefits that they already paid for.

    If you give the Congressmen even more tax revenue, just what to you REALLY think that they will do with it? My bet is they will spend every penny of it as fast as they can, and then raise even more debt or taxes -- IF WE LET THEM.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Quick Fri Jul 30, 2010 04:53 pm EDT Report Abuse
    A good example of a tax increase and what politicians would do with it is the payroll tax. In 1983 Social Security taxes were increased. The retirement age of Baby Boomers was also increased to 66 and 67. The Baby Boomers were told that the extra money would be accumulated in the SS "trust" fund so that it could pay their benefits when the Baby Boom Bulge began to hit SS in the 2010's.

    But this money in the SS "trust" fund was not independently managed like most private and state pension funds. Nor was it invested in marketable securities like municipal and corporate bonds, marketable US Treasury bonds, stock funds, CD's, repurchase agreements, income contracts and other securities like those of private and state pension funds. Instead it went into "special" non-marketable Treasury bonds that did not pay a competitive rate for most of the past 27 years.

    Worse yet, the Congressmen of BOTH parties treated the SS "trust" fund as their own personal slush fund to pay for the various pork-barrel earmarks that they created. The money that they took from the "trust" fund in return for the "special" IOU's was not counted as a debt, but as "income" and applied against the reported annual spending deficit -- making it look smaller.

    Now the ponzi scheme is falling apart because the Boomers have reached retirement age -- and there is nothing in the "trust" fund but the "special" bonds. The government will have to now raise taxes AGAIN or issue more debt AGAIN to repay the IOU's so that the Boomers can get their SS benefits that they already paid for.

    If you give the Congressmen even more tax revenue, just what to you REALLY think that they will do with it? My bet is they will spend every penny of it as fast as they can, and then raise even more debt or taxes -- IF WE LET THEM.

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