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U.S. Economy "Gradually Deteriorating," Levy Says: Recession Likely in 2011

Posted Sep 16, 2010 04:04pm EDT by Aaron Task
Thursday brought another round of economic data to fuel the raging debate about whether the U.S. economy is on the mend, heading for a double-dip or still in recession.

If you step back from the day-to-day (and minute-by-minute) focus on the latest data, "the state of the economy is...gradually deteriorating," says David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. "We had a very weak recovery and we are more likely than not going to have another recession in 2011."

Levy, who puts the odds of a true double-dip at 60%, says recent talk of a recovery - which not coincidentally corresponded with a quick rally in the stock market - is wrong for the following reasons:

  • -- Housing is "clearly deteriorating again" after the first-time homeowner tax credit. (Indeed, RealtyTrac reports U.S. foreclosures rose 25% in August vs. a year ago to the highest level since the housing bubble burst.)
  • -- Non-residential construction is declining.
  • -- Inventory investment is becoming "overdone," he says, noting ISM surveys showing delivery delays because of overstocked warehouses.
  • -- Consumer spending is stagnant. Levy attributes the recent uptick in retail sales to purchases by "mostly high income people who had held off during the crisis."

With 25 million un- and under-employed Americans and 1 in 7 living in poverty, the U.S. economy is even more dependent on spending by the wealthiest; that's a big reason Levy things it's wrong to let the Bush tax cuts expire for families making over $250,000 annually.

Austerity Will 'Backfire'

By the same token, the economists says conservatives are wrong to focus on the deficit and push for austerity measures.

"Clearly the symptoms of the economic problems [are] being confused more and more with the disease," he says. "The deficit didn't cause our economic weakness. It was a collapse in private investment, asset deflation [and] debt problems that caused weakness and a falloff in [government] revenues."

With tax receipts down and the government spending more to offset the deleveraging of the private sector - and on social safety nets like unemployment - the deficit has soared.

Judging by the most recent TIC data, projections for trillion-dollar annual deficits for the next decade have not caused foreigners to flee from U.S. assets, including Treasuries, as the mega-bears have long predicted.

But if we listen to the doomsayers and "try to do the Herbert Hoover route and cut the deficit further then it will backfire," says Levy, who is bearish for reasons other than the deficit.

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276 comments

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    onetinsoldier66 Sun Sep 19, 2010 05:59 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Here here, I agree with "Average American".

    Governement and National Debt does NOT Equal Responsibility!

    We need begin to take responsibility for these deficits and debt by taking action now, not later. The longer it's put off the worse the pain in fixing the debt issue will be.

    Greece's Debt is 115% of their GDP, and they are in big trouble over they're Debt.

    Our Debt-to-GDP ratio is about 94.5%... it's nearing 100%.

    It's OUR GOVERNMENT. We need to tell them to take action on this issue. And there are many different ways in which action can be taken to Balance the Budget and Reduce the National Debt. IMO, THERE SHOULD BE NO EXCUSE FOR CONTINUING MAKING US SLAVES TO PAYING THE INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL DEBT!
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    Lee Sun Sep 19, 2010 05:20 pm EDT Report Abuse
    It's interesting that Levy says recession likely in 2011,what he does he call what is going on now? perhaps he thinks this is the "summer of recovery" that Obama and the Dems seem to think,or want us to think it is.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Cary Sun Sep 19, 2010 04:24 pm EDT Report Abuse
    You really want to solve the problem? Go take the billions we spent in Iraq in the form of oil. When I say "take" I mean just that. Take it from them in any way we have to.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Annoymous! Sun Sep 19, 2010 06:30 am EDT Report Abuse
    "With 25 million un- and under-employed Americans and 1 in 7 living in poverty, the U.S. economy is even more dependent on spending by the wealthiest; that's a big reason Levy things it's wrong to let the Bush tax cuts expire for families making over $250,000 annually. "
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Sat Sep 18, 2010 07:46 pm EDT Report Abuse
    WE ARE USED AU TOOL TO MAKE MONEY.
    IT'S TIME TO CHANGE TOLLS,DONT YOU GET IT
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Sat Sep 18, 2010 07:43 pm EDT Report Abuse
    will we have one bank,one car company and one construction company for all usa?
  • A Yahoo! User
    1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Sat Sep 18, 2010 03:12 pm EDT Report Abuse
    $1 per hr are you happy now?
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:06 pm EDT Report Abuse
    I take full credit for this rally. For a month now I have been telling peeps why the market would rally. 50 postings.The biggee now is the wimps with bonds. Tens of millions of gutless wonders. They have suffered horribly in the last three weeks and many were on the train when it left the station two Fridays ago. Try to imagine those who remained; the lamentation, the gnashing and wailing, the rending of garments. Captain Wimpy is selling his bonds and this will fuel the mother of all bull markets. I grow weary of repeating myself but here is the biggee. Hear much about the 9.6% anymore, the prediction that it would take 30 yrs to return to full employment? No. I have explained that it is related to construction, which is not a fundamental longterm weakness in the economy but results from the Bubble. Peeps now see that they were being booed with all the omens and death crosses and my favorite: the ghost of Septembers past.
    RussStahl
    Greatest living economist, analyst and prose artist
  • 3 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Average American Sat Sep 18, 2010 08:30 am EDT Report Abuse
    In the interview David Levy states, "The deficit didn't cause our economic weakness."

    While the Federal deficit did not cause the problem, the deficit limits the available solutions to the problem. Had the Federal government had a surplus to throw at the economy when the crisis began, the specter of rising taxes to pay for the growing deficit would not add to the uncertain and elongation of the problem. In other words, we could have bought our way out of the problem had there been a Federal budget surplus.

    The structural issue is that the Federal government and budget deficit grow in good and bad economical times. There is NEVER a downsizing of the Federal government and paying down of the Federal deficit. When will we Americans admit that the Federal deficit is a HUGE drag on the American economy and make the sacrifices necessary to live within our means?
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    gavin Sat Sep 18, 2010 06:36 am EDT Report Abuse
    get rid of the dollar its worthless

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