Skip to search.

"A Lot of Losses ... Investors Haven’t Seen Yet": Bank Bear Chris Whalen Sticks to His Guns

Posted Nov 17, 2010 07:30am EST by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession, Banking

Millions of Americans are still struggling to find work in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, Wall Street is enjoying another banner year, earning an estimated $19 billion in 2010, according to a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. That would make it the fourth-most profitable year for the industry.

Christopher Whalen, co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics, doesn’t expect the good times to last much longer -- especially for the big banks. Whalen thinks they’re headed for a world of trouble -- although if you follow his comments, you know he’s been saying that for at least a year. (See: The "Real" Economy Is Dying: Q4 "Going to Be a Bloodbath," Whalen Says.)

"The crisis is going to come when people realize this current GDP level… is normal," he says, referring to the economy's 2% annual growth rate last quarter. That realization will lead to a sell-off in bank stocks, he predicts. “I don’t see how they (the stocks) can go up if we have down revenues and uncertain GDP.”

The heart of the problem remains flawed and risky real estate loans banks are still holding; Whalen says two-thirds of big banks assets are shrinking as a result.

“There’s a lot of losses in the system that investors haven’t seen yet,” he tells Henry in this clip. “All the industry is willing to do is admit to as much loss as they have cash flow, this quarter,” something banks are allowed to do now that the mark-to-market accounting rules have been removed.

Compounding the problem is a low interest rate environment that is becoming less beneficial to banks. Whalen says net interest rates margins are shrinking – meaning the spread between the rate banks borrow at and the rate they collect on their loans is shrinking, as older loans expire or get refinanced.

Zero interest rates are also making matters worse for the real economy, as Whalen details in his new book Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream.

Ben Bernanke's zero-rate policy is causing havoc with corporate pension funds expecting and needing to make greater returns to meet funding obligations, he says. “I think we’re going to have big trouble next year if we don’t let rates go up. Even 1% compounded is better than zero."

Fortunately, it’s not all bad across the board. The smaller, regional banks, are recovering. US Bancorp and BB&T, are two Whalen speaks favorably of, although, to avoid conflicts, he does not personally own any bank stocks.

43 comments

  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    marc Fri Nov 26, 2010 12:26 am EST Report Abuse
    Tragically, DTT is spot on.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Jh Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:51 pm EST Report Abuse
    These people short the stock and then get free air time to trash the same stock that they shorted. It's unbelievable how screwed up this country become.
  • A Yahoo! User
    0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:37 pm EST Report Abuse
    More boo. The economy may be sluggish but the underground economy is burgeoning as Americans adjust to the new realities. The 17% unemployed are swelling its ranks. If our total GDP has not reached 20 trillion it will next year. This explains why earnings are so amazing. And consumption and corporate revenues are growing. Sans financials. The unreported component of the economy will overtake the reported in a few years. The S&P500 will earn 60% of their revenues abroad next year thanks to the devalued dollar and global growth of 4.8%. We are entering an economic golden age.
  • A Yahoo! User
    3 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Wed Nov 17, 2010 06:23 pm EST Report Abuse
    whatever the economic situation is, banks that are big... JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and BoA will never run out of business or fail.

    Banks are like casinos and even during wars, they propser because they are the heart and soul of a country's existence. Too big to fail, too fat to die and all those other cliches do apply.

    So if I were you, buy bank STOCKS. You might lose your deposit but you will never lose your shareholdings in a big bank!
  • A Yahoo! User
    0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Wed Nov 17, 2010 01:39 pm EST Report Abuse
    How many times does a guy have to be wrong before you turkeys stop inviting him to shoot his mouth off.
  • 4 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    ROY Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:50 pm EST Report Abuse
    Why is it these bears see only the bad and never the good. When the good happens they all disappear never to be seen again until the next crisis. Disgusting people who only add to the problems.
  • A Yahoo! User
    1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 3 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:20 am EST Report Abuse
    No one with any intelligence posting here. Bye.
  • A Yahoo! User
    4 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:41 am EST Report Abuse
    There I was thinking running double books was accounting fraud! >.
  • A Yahoo! User
    3 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 3 users disliked this comment
    A Yahoo! User Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:37 am EST Report Abuse
    Once again! We see who the scourge is; who is the impediment to our recovery. I thought so and I've heard it before: the big banks DO NOT WANT TO REFINANCE LOANS; THEY WANT TO SEND PEOPLE INTO DEFAULT AND FORECLOSURE BECAUSE ITS MORE PROFITABLE FOR THEM! They caused the problems and are standing in the way of the solution. Are they friends of America or our enemy? Are they traitors to the American people? How much more of this are you people going to take? Why aren't people taking to the streets?

    I ordered a book called "Griftopia" and am anxious to see what the author says although I probably suspected most of what's been going on. I recommend this book and some others like it. I think they will really open people's eyes.
  • 6 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 4 users disliked this comment
    DTT Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:36 am EST Report Abuse
    The big banks got another gift in QEII, but it can't make them loan here. The banks make money on day to day operations, pay huge salaries to their execs and don't have to recognize losses thanks to doing away with "mark to markets." We have years of painfully slow growth ahead of us and no one can change that. The only thing that is going to happen is the Republicans are going to do away with extended benefits to the unemployed to force them to take minimum wage jobs if they can find them. Our living standard is going to take another big hit for the middle class. The rich, whom the government has already protected will continue to do well. The stock market should rise on overseas earnings and the bond market may fall apart world wide as governments and states can no longer pay their obligations. Watch out pensioners, the good days may be about to end. Watch out middle class, none of this bodes well for you.

Post a comment

Sign in to post a comment, or Sign up for a free account.
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.