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How to Build a Better Bailout

Posted Sep 25, 2008 01:40pm EDT by Aaron Task

Update: Congressional Republicans and Democrats are reported to have agreed "in principle" on Paulson's bailout plan, saying they would present it to President Bush in hopes of a vote within days.

The $700 billion bailout plan making its way through Congress has come under intense scrutiny, from Main Street to Wall Street and even a few folks in Washington, D.C.

But if the Paulson plan isn't right, what is?

I put that question before Joshua Rosner, managing director of Graham Fisher & Co., an analyst Fortune dubbed a "prophet of the credit crisis" for his prescient warnings.

"We do need to do something. It's a crisis," Rosner concedes. "But we need to be considered and talk about what would work."

His recommendations include:

  • The government acting as lender of last resort, rather than the buyer as currently proposed.
The government should play the role of market maker - putting buyers and sellers together -- rather than "the government as speculator," as per the plan for Treasury to buy $700 billion of bad debt and hope for a positive return down the road.
  • Force banks to open up Level 3 and disclose what they're actually holding and how they're valuing them.
  • "The Swedish Solution": Faced with a similar crisis in the 1990s, Sweden forced banks to write down bad loans, then the government injected liquidity into the system and profited from the upside after taking equity stakes in the banks.

In other words, the government could do what it did with AIG -- an $85 billion loan with onerous terms -- on a much bigger scale.

"That is the road we should be thinking about," Rosner says. "Part of reason Japan ended up in such morass is they did not force write-downs. Instead, small banks with bad loans were bought by bigger banks with bad loans." (Sound familiar?)

Rather than solving the crisis, moving bad debt from the banks' balance sheet to the government's -- as is currently proposed -- is just another form of off-balance sheet financing, which Rosner notes "was a big cause of the problems" to begin with.

85 Comments

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday September 25, 2008 01:56PM EDT

I hope that Mr. Rosner also sees the 700B as just the tip of the iceberg.I am from the Southwest, I've been to three goat ropings and a county fair, but I haven't ever seen anything like this!!!

Art
Art - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:00PM EDT

Anything congress does will only make things worse in the long term. Government undertakings always backfire with catastrophic results.

FANFOREVER
FANFOREVER - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:01PM EDT

All interesting ideas, but you missed one more...have the FDIC increase insurance up to $500,000 to build confidence in banking and people will make deposits, giving banks money to operate. No cash lay out is needed and the risk is minimal so long as you fix the problems and stop the fat cats from taking it all again.

FANFOREVER
FANFOREVER - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:05PM EDT

How can Ben and Hank survice this. They should resign after telling everyone things are fine for so long. Let us not forget these are the same guys that brought this plan forward but have drasticly failed to serve us well for the past 18+ months while this all came to be.

Ronald
Ronald - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:06PM EDT

The Democratic party vs Clinton caused this Problem and this Bailout will just let them screw the American people again. Will the american people ever learn that the only Dem is one we defeat and kick out of office.Every state they conrol is a Disaster!!!!!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:16PM EDT

If only the government would listen to this proposal. I fear they are too far down the road though and selling out our future for short term political and short term market gain.

FANFOREVER
FANFOREVER - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:17PM EDT

I'm not willing to play politics with this and blame the Rep or Dem's. This is a different party...of greedy scum that take everyone else for granted. It will never be solved by one party or the other. In fact, look who we have working on the solution...a Congress that likely has blown more than 700B in earmarks in the past 9 months. America needs to wake up and stop playing along party lines!

Isolde
Isolde - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:18PM EDT

Finally someone is seeing this correctly. Just create a floor for the mortgage securities and create a market. The government doesn't have to actually take possession of $700 billion of junk. Use 10% to actually buy up some of it. The bean counters will then have a way to justify holding these to maturity.

Tex
Tex - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:18PM EDT

More Government in our lives....someday soon you'll send your entire check to Washington and they'll decide what you get....foodstamps, housing, transportation... It's time...in November, make the decision...THROW OUT ALL INCUMBENTS! Even if you think "your favorite" is good...WRONG, THROW THEM ALL OUT!! From this day forward, nobody serves more than 1 term...until maybe, just maybe they get the message that WE THE PEOPLE are in charge again.

Itlbiglex
Itlbiglex - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:22PM EDT

This Joshua Rosner is right on the money. Once the government buys the debt (over paying for it), then the next step would be for the government to sell it at a discount to favored groups (later, under either Republican or Demorcratic rule). If the government really thinks (wrongly) that a total action must come quickly, then the government ought to guarantee a profit to itself by being able to return any loss it suffers (over a set profit of say 5%) in four years, and allow the holders of these mortgaged back investments to pay the debt to the government over time, say five years. To me it's a no brainer!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:23PM EDT

Josh, I agree with your concerns--lets buy down the debt to its real value and get this mess behind us. Japan has proven the alternate concept is another disaster--it only saves the people who put us there! We MUST get leveraging under control! This will require a culture shift--pay as you go. Nothing short of that concept will have a lasting positive impact.

KH
KH - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:27PM EDT

good - no sidekick for Aron on this one!

Pope Belboz
Pope Belboz - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:31PM EDT

The bailout does not fix the problem. Great, the government is the buyer of last resort for bad debt properties. We need to focus on a buyer of first resort. This is the only way properties will begin increasing in value - last resort bailouts will just drive the prices and economy further into a hole. The only way we get more buyers or first resort is to rebuild our manufacturing sector. This is the only sector that our government tracks "value added." We need an economy that is adding value. For this bail-out to have any long term benefit, we need to outlaw the purchase of any foreign goods worth more than $1000 by anyone involved in the bailout. We don't need people sending money overseas after the government comes in to help. I'm sick of seeing bankers and people around town driving around in BMWs, Toyotas, etc... when this economy is in a deep recession. Quit sending money overseas. "The fundamentals of our economy are strong." Nice job Bush. I don't what is worse - your handling of Iraq, the Economy, or the Presidency.

Roger P
Roger P - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:31PM EDT

This is a big mistake.

raising4daughters
raising4daughters - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:31PM EDT

Times like these make me wonder if we'd be better off if Flight 93 had reached its target.

Chargers RULE!!!
Chargers RULE!!! - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:35PM EDT

FANFOREVER Increasing FDIC to 500K is a horrible idea.... Most people do not have 500K sitting in cash anyways. so you are creating a bigger government program for no reason. The problem with what is going on is that we are bailing out these companies without getting anything in return. Funny, no one is talking about the 25 billion that the automakers got!! Let Ford and GM go chapter 11!! I am sure a better automaker will step in and not have to deal with the unions.

Owns Obama
Owns Obama - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:36PM EDT

A number of problems with Rosner's idea. First, it does nothing for providing liquidity to the credit market but slowly over time. This alone makes it a nonstarter. Acting as market maker doesn't suddenly make bad debt a new desirable trading vehicle. Loaning money to replace the loss of equity on a company's balance sheet and then asking for an equity stake is counterproductive. The request for that equity stake dilutes the stock which offsets the loan you just made. What now? More loans to offset our request for an equity stake?

Kurt
Kurt - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:41PM EDT

To jrsaal: All democratic states are a disaster eh??? What about California and Florida my good man???

Cody
Cody - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:42PM EDT

We Are Being SCAMMED OUT!!!

GeorgeK
GeorgeK - Thursday September 25, 2008 02:43PM EDT

I hate to say this but I don't think this will help. Housing values are still falling and there is no announced stop to the forclosures that are on the books. Mortgage Interest rates are rising when it was planned they would fall. Unemployment is spiking and more people are losing their homes, soon affordable housing will be under freeway overpasses and cars will be stolen shopping carts. Clothing will be worn in muliple layers. This only serves Wall Street and maybe there will be some trickle down effect to Main Street in 18 months

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