RIM Q2 Preview: High Hopes for New BlackBerries?

From Silicon Alley Insider, Sept. 25, 2008:

Update: For live coverage of BlackBerry maker Research In Motion's Q2 earnings release and analysis, click here.

BlackBerry maker Research In Motion posts Q2 earnings this afternoon. Join us for LIVE coverage and analysis, beginning at 4 p.m. ET, including a live blog of their conference call, beginning at 5 p.m. RIM's look ahead will be the most important: With several new models launching this quarter, investors will be paying more attention to Q3 guidance than Q2 results.

RIM has forces working for it and against it: On one hand, it's selling its gadgets into a rapidly expanding smartphone market, where it's the top U.S. player. On the other hand, the economy is wobbly, Wall Street is dissolving, rival Apple (AAPL) has stolen a lot of recent attention with its new iPhone 3G, and the U.S. launch of RIM's latest, the 3G BlackBerry Bold, has been delayed until next month.

A marketing push behind the Bold at AT&T, the forthcoming Pearl Flip at T-Mobile, and the touchscreen Storm at Verizon Wireless should help RIM out in the November quarter. The company needs to guide around 3 million net subscriber additions and 7 million device shipments for Q3 or its stock will get clobbered. Anything above 3.5 million net sub adds and 8 million shipments would be upside.

Key Metrics:

Q2 Revenue: $2.60 billion consensus
Q2 EPS: $0.87 consensus
Q2 Net Sub. Adds: 2.6 million (RBC, AmTech), 2.7 million (Citi)
Q2 Device Shipments: 6.1 million (AmTech, Citi), 6.3 million (RBC)
Q3 Revenue: $2.95 billion consensus
Q3 EPS: $0.98 consensus
Q3 Net Sub. Adds: 2.9 million (Citi), 3+ million (RBC), 3.3 million (AmTech)
Q3 Device Shipments: 6.9 million (Citi), 7.4 million-7.5 million (RBC), 7.8 million (AmTech)

See Also:
Survey Says: BlackBerry To Keep Dominating Microsoft, Apple For Corporate Mobile Email
Say Hello To The $520 BlackBerry And The $600 iPhone