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RIM Q2 Preview: High Hopes for New BlackBerries?
Posted Sep 25, 2008 03:03pm EDT by Dan Frommer in Investing, Electronics, Networking and Communication, Products and Trends, Information Technology
From Silicon Alley Insider, Sept. 25, 2008:
Update: For live coverage of BlackBerry maker Research In Motion's Q2 earnings release and analysis, click here.
BlackBerry maker Research In Motion posts Q2 earnings this afternoon. Join us for LIVE coverage and analysis, beginning at 4 p.m. ET, including a live blog of their conference call, beginning at 5 p.m. RIM's look ahead will be the most important: With several new models launching this quarter, investors will be paying more attention to Q3 guidance than Q2 results.
RIM has forces working for it and against it: On one hand, it's selling its gadgets into a rapidly expanding smartphone market, where it's the top U.S. player. On the other hand, the economy is wobbly, Wall Street is dissolving, rival Apple (AAPL) has stolen a lot of recent attention with its new iPhone 3G, and the U.S. launch of RIM's latest, the 3G BlackBerry Bold, has been delayed until next month.
A marketing push behind the Bold at AT&T, the forthcoming Pearl Flip at T-Mobile, and the touchscreen Storm at Verizon Wireless should help RIM out in the November quarter. The company needs to guide around 3 million net subscriber additions and 7 million device shipments for Q3 or its stock will get clobbered. Anything above 3.5 million net sub adds and 8 million shipments would be upside.
Key Metrics:
Q2 Revenue: $2.60 billion consensus
Q2 EPS: $0.87 consensus
Q2 Net Sub. Adds: 2.6 million (RBC, AmTech), 2.7 million (Citi)
Q2 Device Shipments: 6.1 million (AmTech, Citi), 6.3 million (RBC)
Q3 Revenue: $2.95 billion consensus
Q3 EPS: $0.98 consensus
Q3 Net Sub. Adds: 2.9 million (Citi), 3+ million (RBC), 3.3 million (AmTech)
Q3 Device Shipments: 6.9 million (Citi), 7.4 million-7.5 million (RBC), 7.8 million (AmTech)
See Also:
Survey Says: BlackBerry To Keep Dominating Microsoft, Apple For Corporate Mobile Email
Say Hello To The $520 BlackBerry And The $600 iPhone
5 Comments
FDNY343 - Friday September 26, 2008 02:40PM EDT
HELP I JUST BEEN RAPED BY KERRY KILLINGER & I CANT EVEN Make out a police report. talk about sneaks in the night-us govt and jp morgan SCREW ALL AMERICAN SHARE HOLDERS. DO I STOP BELIEVING IN THE AMERICAN WAY-WHICH IS TO F--- THE SMALL GUY-HOPE THEY FRY IN HELL...
FDNY343 - Friday September 26, 2008 02:57PM EDT
WOW I JUST SAW THE AMERICAN FLAG THAT HANGS FROM THE COLUMNS OF WALL STREET - IS WAS ALL IN RED - guessing it was ashamed of what it stands for. But not all bad - at least we are going to be all socialist soon thank ??god or is that not allowed. any one sending a kid to fight overseas should feel foolish.
Shawn - Friday September 26, 2008 03:10PM EDT
wow i didnt know aaple is just a phone company - according to rimms effect on the stock. It's astounding how dumb investors are.
Matthew B - Friday September 26, 2008 04:04PM EDT
Please, the stock play of the next 5 years is by shorting Apple to buy RIMM. Now that they are both on the same P/E playing field, rim dominates them on metrics, revenue and earnings growth. Also, RIMM can still step in on them such as Apple has stepped in on them. When you think about it, RIMM has the brand to produce an classy Media Player to oppose the kiddy IPODS. Do you really think Basillie is going to let Apple erode their market without fighting back, why do you think microsoft entered the gaming market, because sony was getting to close to them with new Playstations (powerfull computers with no OS / windows). RIMM 5 year play against AAPLE, I predict will earn you 25% year over year, but the entry point is now.
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edward - Thursday September 25, 2008 04:34PM EDT
you t can be eat the apple I T IS THE BEST