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'This Sucker Could Go Down': Bailout Stalls, Market on Edge

Posted Sep 26, 2008 10:15am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

"If money isn't loosened up, this sucker could go down," President Bush reportedly declared Thursday evening as talks over the $700 billion bailout package stalled.

Friday morning, Bush reassured frazzled financial markets by declaring "a substantial package" will be passed. "We will rise to the occasion," the President said.

In recent trading, the Dow was down 0.6%, the S&P by 1.3% and the Nasdaq by 1.3%, about half the level of declines prior to the President's brief address.

President Bush spoke five minutes into the U.S. trading day, which began with sharp -- but not outsized -- losses for stock indexes amid concerns the bailout may be delayed, if not derailed. International markets suffered big declines overnight on similar fears.

As painful as it's been for investors, the stock market has held up relatively well compared to the credit markets, which have seized up again. Credit spreads are approaching the extreme levels seen last week in the wake of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy and the crisis in big institutional money market funds.

Policymakers are rightfully focused on the credit markets. If banks are unwilling to lend to each other -- as surging LIBOR rates suggest -- they sure aren't going to lend to consumers or businesses, which has profound implications for the economy (which grew slower in the second quarter than originally reported, by the way.)

  • In the short term, companies like Goodyear Tire can't access their cash because of stress in the money market and overnight lending operations. Most businesses need this capital to fund day-to-day operations.
  • In the longer- to intermediate-term, a slowing economy means more earnings disappointments such as delivered in recent days by GE and Research In Motion.

Thus far, the stock market has held up remarkably well given those threats. Barring some resolution on the bailout in Washington, stocks won't be able to ignore strains in the credit markets much longer.

"It is unclear at this time whether this intense stress in credit markets is the result of Washington not moving fast enough, or moving ahead with the wrong approach, or simply the result of a cascade of forced balance sheet liquidation," writes Michael Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners. "In any event, these stresses suggest equities could come under considerable pressure in the near term."

232 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday September 26, 2008 10:47AM EDT

Would you like the sucker to go down.....Back to to High School...Your Degree is useless.......You dont know economics and History......What is the solution....both of them dont know......May be you are absent that time....O yes it is 1929............Obama a true blooded politician.........McCain a true adventurer without true aim... What would you to solve the problem of Debts......A bad debts......

mike
mike - Friday September 26, 2008 10:47AM EDT

the stupidity displayed with these comments is astounding. this is not a bailout for Wall Street, it is a bail out for Main Street. If this does not pass, credit will become virtually non-existent. This will affect you, not just Wall Street. A deep recession, which I understand is still possible even with the bailout, will dramatically affect every aspect of your life. This is not a "scare" tactic, just the simple truth.

Doug C
Doug C - Friday September 26, 2008 10:48AM EDT

Great Deal for JP Morgan, if Congress passes the bailout bill. Do the math, JP Morgan buys one of the largest banks in the country, WaMu for the bargian basement price of 2 Billion. Willing to write down 31 Billion in losses and its still a great deal. BUT NO

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday September 26, 2008 10:48AM EDT

There seems to be a big conern that liquidity has dried up. It hasn't. People won't buy toxic assets because they are toxic. Just because a potential buyer has cash doesn't make it smart for him to buy these. As for liquidity, people are working and paying their mortgages every day. Liquidity is being added by all those mortgage payments and other debt payments.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday September 26, 2008 10:49AM EDT

Maybe Sarah Palin has a good plan we haven't yet heard.

Shiv
Shiv - Friday September 26, 2008 10:51AM EDT

The economic data indicates that the contraction has been on-going for the last several months. It also shows that GDP growth has been lower than inflation for at least a couple of quarters and thus the economic contraction is well in progress. In fact, I believe that we are on the verge of entering the late contraction stage of the economic cycle. If this is true, we will enter the new up-cycle as soon as the financial services sector's health is restored. If the bail out plan succeeds, I believe we are at the start of the process of healing and near a cyclical upswing. Since the market is forward looking this could be close to the bottom (though I think it may still be a quarter away). If the bail-out plan fails, this could be a very long painful and drawn out late cycle contraction; with a bottom lying far below & several months away. While $700 billion is a small amount in the context of GDP of over $13 trillion, a credit default market of $62 billion and a derivative market of $1,300 trillion; with the multiplier effect it will over time generate several trillion worth of economic activity. Once the financial services sector stabilizes, we can look forward to investment in productivity; this phase is typically led by technology. As employment rises as do incomes, consumer confidence improves; this phase is led by consumer discretionary. As the economy improves, in anticipation of strong demand from industrials, the basic materials sector prospers. As the economy goes from strength to strength, the next sector to prosper is industrials. As the engines of industry roar, the demand for energy rises; and yes, it is energy that outperforms. By now, the exuberance of the cycle has caused inflation; commodity prices are up, interest rates are rising to tame inflation and slow growth. Now caution prevails; the rotation into the security of health-care commences; when you get sick you need medical assistance, it is a safe-haven and the yield is nice; at the same time growth potential exists. As time passes, the caution spreads, the flight to safety continues as the economy contracts; now investors turn to the security of investing in necessities and essentials; the consumer staples sector prospers. The economy contracts further; unemployment is climbing, valuations in staples have risen reducing yield, valuations are stretched considering the sectors low growth potential. Value becomes fashionable, dividends are important considering rising unemployment; investors shift to utilities. Now risks to growth are elevated, inflation is past its peak, stimulative rate cuts are anticipated in the late contraction stage. In anticipation of better spreads and credit expansion, financials outperform. We have gone a full cycle; but each cycle remains unique - the lead sectors are beneficiaries of a strong secular trend.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday September 26, 2008 10:52AM EDT

Yeah, let's bail out the idiots that got us here in the first place. How f***ing stupid is that? Unless these morons feel severe pain then no way should we give them a nickel. Management and shareholders MUST lose big time if the taxpayers are going to throw them a lifeline.

bill nye
bill nye - Friday September 26, 2008 10:53AM EDT

I believe you all should expect your risk, as we all know you can't live off credit in which that’s how America operates. Expect you failures! Make laws and sanctions for new business to develop from these failures. I pay taxes and I'm not on a diving board with my credit why should I pay for anyone’s mistakes? government money is my money and if a company failed they fail people should be responsible (executives) for there short comings just like if the Mets don’t make the playoffs they don’t make it there’s no bail out for them wtf

JordanH
JordanH - Friday September 26, 2008 10:53AM EDT

If Bush was not reading what he has to say off a card, would he even understand 1/64th of this?

Elna
Elna - Friday September 26, 2008 10:54AM EDT

My husband says this is just another pyramid scheme backed by the government. I agree. We are going to vote this November for the candidates who oppose this bailout plan.

- Friday September 26, 2008 10:55AM EDT

Can't blame one party for this mess. There's enough crap pie to go around for all of congress and the the current admin. Yes, bot Dems and Repubs own this garbage, but especially the Fed Reserve.

Greg
Greg - Friday September 26, 2008 10:56AM EDT

This country is in BIG trouble. We spend zillions of dollars fighting a bulllshit war and our biggest financial institutions are going bust. Eight years of Bush was the problem. Good job GW!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday September 26, 2008 10:58AM EDT

With or without Bail-out, America will not a great nation anymore,it was ruin because of politics,it is a nation of divided people and I hate to be mentioned as one of them but that is the truth......

tom b
tom b - Friday September 26, 2008 10:59AM EDT

The bailout better work. If it dont it will get worse, and everyone should know that by now. The biggest problem is no one is being held responsible for all this garbage the last 20 years. This whole problem was put in place nearly 20 years ago. This isnt anything new, and Bush, I hate to say it, is not to blame. You have to hold the 100 or so people who have been making bad choices the last 20 years accountable and the fact that no one was looking over their shoulder and keeping them in check. The govnt is based on checks and balances, and the banks and housing markets have no checks and balances and have been doing what they want for about 20 yrs now. They need a bailout plan, and also checks and balances put into place. Example look at ENRON, they made an example out of them, and that wont happen again in that financial sector again, but if someone isnt held acountable for all this crap, it will happen again. We need checks and balances in all businesses, its horrible that no one has learned this yet, hopefully someone will wake up and discover these facts and do something about it, and soon.

JackieT
JackieT - Friday September 26, 2008 11:00AM EDT

This bailout is nothing short of tyranny to all those that have fought and died defending our constitution and our right to be a democratic and free country. These socialist programs are a slap in the face to America and all she stood for in the past. Yes we will face hard times if we do not act. I am ready to suffer along with all those before me that have allowed me to be here and voice my concern today. I say United We stand. If the bailout is approved, vote Libertarian, Constitutional, or Independent… anything but Republican or Democrat. It will not be a wasted vote. If enough people stand up for our principles and what is right we can show the politicians how we feel.

Ben
Ben - Friday September 26, 2008 11:00AM EDT

'Down on me' a theme song? (Janis Joplin)

skeet1057
skeet1057 - Friday September 26, 2008 11:07AM EDT

Does it seem like the whole mess started once the price of gasoline went from about $2.25 a gallon to $3.75 a gallon ? About on eyear later, we are seeing how it has affected every other market. Wasn't the oil market deregulated or something allowing individuals to buy (speculate) oil on less of a margin ? Just curious, I'm not a finiancial wizard, but would like to know what the heck is going on.........

Sherrie
Sherrie - Friday September 26, 2008 11:11AM EDT

Yesterday, Ron Paul sent out a letter warning of the dangers of the Paulson and Bernanke bailout plan and asking you to contact your representatives and senators. A vote on this bill could literally come at any moment, and it is crucial that you immediately express your opinion to Congress. The picture painted by the supporters of the bailout is dire. President Bush reinforced this notion in his address to the nation last night and again urged Congress to act immediately. Remember what happened the last time the executive branch warned of horrible consequences and rushed legislation through Congress? We got the Patriot Act, which to this day threatens our civil liberties on an unprecedented scale. We do know that our economy is in for a rough ride. These bad mortgage-related assets will have to be cleared out and the market will have to reset. The only question is how that will happen. The easy way out is to continue the same practices that got us to this point. We can put $700 billion, for starters, in the hands of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former CEO of Goldman Sachs) and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and let them spend the money on whatever they wish. This option will only delay the economic downturn, which will only be worsened. Or, we can take this opportunity to end the federal government's interference in the marketplace, truly embrace free market capitalism, and return to a sound monetary system. The Federal Reserve's practices of easy credit and monetary inflation have crashed our economy, and now they're asking us to trust them to fix it. When you call Congress to express your outrage at the bailout, tell them you want real solutions. It is time for Congress to: 1.) End the Bailouts - Congress must revoke the Federal Reserve's authority to bail out failed businesses at your expense. 2.) Cut Taxes and Curb Regulation - If we really want to stimulate businesses and revive the market, we need to cut corporate and capital gains taxes, spurring investors to come back to the market and making it easier to attract new workers and clients. It is also time to end failed legislation like Sarbanes-Oxley, which has crippled capital markets, diminished our competitiveness, and greatly harmed small businesses. 3.) Reduce Spending - We must freeze all non-entitlement spending by the federal government at current levels and eliminate wasteful spending both domestically and in our trillion-dollar overseas budget. Our debt has to come down, and it won't until we start living within our means. 4.) Reform the Monetary System - If we are to have long-term economic progress, we must end the system of printing money out of thin air. The current laws limiting the circulation of gold and silver-backed currency must be overturned. We can no longer base our money on the empty promises of bureaucrats that it is sound. The federal government is trying to scare us into accepting more tyranny. Don't stand for it. Check out our action alert, and let Congress know that you will no longer tolerate the Federal Reserve's stranglehold on our economy.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday September 26, 2008 11:11AM EDT

To the GIG, What does the war have to do with this? Stop reading financial news and go back to moveon.org, because you have no idea what you are talking about. This is about a lack of bank regulation, very low interest rates (cheap money), and oversight of credit derivatives. Local mortgage companies gave out undocumented loans to people that couldn't afford it. Big investment banks bought those loans and packaged them out in the form of CDO's, and other products. Flush with money, mortgage companies loaned more, and cycle continued. Inflating the market to the point beyond equalibrium, which is what we are experiencing now. That being said, I do not believe in this bail out either. Experienced bankers cannot price these products, so why should the tax payer buy them? Let the free-market work. There should be consequences for the behavior of the last 5 years. From the big guys to the little guys that bought way more house than they could afford.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday September 26, 2008 11:13AM EDT

JP Morgan did this in 1907, 1920, and finally October 1929. After write downs of 31 Billion, and after paying a bargain price of 1.8 Billion for controlling shares of Wamu, JP Morgan becomes the largest bank, and will have added 60 Billion in assets to its books......pennies on the dollar. Does anyone not see history repeating itself. The Fed Reserve Act of 1913 was devised when most of congress was on Christmas vacation.....then Wilson became president, and signed it into law. We are weeks away from an election, and again, most of congress will be off preparing for Christmas......how much more do these reptiles want to take from us?.....and are we going to stand for it??? Yes, we will stand for it.....cause we are America.....I have to go watch "dancing with the stars".....just please don't shut off my sports network channel and I won't riot.....and we are still looking for cavemen in Afghanistan.

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