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Fed Heads Back to the Well, Will It Run Dry?

Posted Mar 18, 2008 07:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Since September 2007, the Federal Reserve has cut the fed funds rate by 225 basis points and, in just the past 9 months, has injected approximately $1 trillion in the financial system via a combination of existing and newly created mechanisms.

Heck, just since Friday, the Fed has pledged to support a bailout of Bear Stearns, then backed JPMorgan's takeover by pledging to backstop $30 billion of Bears' "less liquid assets."

But, wait, there's more: The Fed also cut its discount rate (the rate at which it lends directly to financial institutions) and opened the discount window to brokerage firms (vs. just banks) for the first time since the 1930s.

After so much frenzied activity, you'd think the Fed would be due for a rest. Instead, Ben Bernanke & Co. are widely expected to further slash the fed funds rate at today's scheduled policy meeting.

The talk on Wall Street is anywhere from a 50 to a 125 basis point cut, with the fed funds futures market putting the highest odds on a full 1 point (or 100 basis point) cut to 2%.

The accompanying chatter on Wall Street is the Fed is pushing on the proverbial string, i.e. using the wrong tool (the fed funds rate) and using up its firepower and credibility in a futile attempt to fix a problem in the credit markets.

Worse, the "Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God" crowd believes the Fed is merely postponing and prolonging the pain by delaying the inevitable comeuppance for Wall Street's debt and derivatives binge. The Fed's goal, in this view, is to bailout fat-cat speculators at the expense of average, hard-working taxpayers, savers and the dollar generally. 

While I certainly understand (and sympathize) with that sentiment I feel compelled to offer an alternative outlook, courtesy of Mark Dow of Pharo Management, an emerging-market-focused macro hedge fund with over $2 billion in assets.

Dow has the unique perspective of having worked at both the IMF and Treasury before heading to the buyside several years ago. From his perch (and knowledge of the institution) the Fed is "not trying to make people whole" but trying to prevent more "innocent bystanders" from becoming victims to others' mistakes. (A prime example being Thornburg Mortgage which wasn't exposed to subprime mortgages but was exposed to overnight lending markets, which have essentially frozen. Plus, the Fed didn't exactly rescue Bear Stearns' shareholders.)

"The Fed doesn't want to avoid a bad outcome – they want the unwind to occur in orderly fashion," Dow says, comparing the Fed's actions to the circuit breakers adopted by the NYSE in the wake of the 1987 market crash.

"In a panic, people make mistakes" and the Fed is trying to prevent the obvious distress in the financial markets from becoming a full-blown panic, he says. For academic types, Dow cites the economic theory of Path Dependency, which suggests the route a market or asset takes can greatly influence where it ends up. 

In other words, a slow-motion train wreck that wears people down is preferable to a crash that wipes 'em out.

93 Comments

craig e
craig e - Tuesday March 18, 2008 08:47AM EDT

Run the well dry? The fed controls an endless supply of money...Just turn on the Federal money printing machine's. Fiat currency (money backed by nothing) is a dangerous system. The Well? Continued bank failure. we still have 6 rough months. Then the election. Who wins will indicate where we go. There is only one Ross Perot style person in this race...RON PAUL. This type of canadite and principals will reconnect us our economic possibilities.

r13
r13 - Tuesday March 18, 2008 09:16AM EDT

Bernanke's action amounts to a gift to JP Morgan of whatever the value of guaranteeing $30 billion in "less liquid assets" turns out to be. How did he get the right to use the taxpayers' money that way?

JIM
JIM - Tuesday March 18, 2008 09:47AM EDT

Nothing different here. the fat cats win again and the little guy loses. Just like the upcoming election, what the people want doesn't matter. The powers to be will decide the outcome. So sad.

Vince
Vince - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:00AM EDT

And the alternative is? One alternative is for America to save a few bucks and stop using credit and debt for everything. I work my but off and try to save as much as I can for the future. It seems like if you are a financial fool the government will bail you out. I feel sorry for the folks who bought so much house they could not afford it. But why should I bail all of them out. But then again I guess I will have a stash of cash to buy all these nice assets both financial and other type of assets at fifty cents on the dollar so I guess I shoild not complain . I will end upi being a big winner out of this. Frugality Rules!!! and Wins in the end!!! LOL

- Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:05AM EDT

There is no well! They create money so it can never go dry. (period)

Eric W
Eric W - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:10AM EDT

Most individuals and households are way over-leveraged (in debt), whether it's home equity loans, car loans, credit cards. As inflation gets worse they will have less to spend. In the past, a generally conservative populace had the cash to buy bargains when the market fell; this is no longer the case. Retirees will move their money to safe havens such as precious metals and overseas funds so they won't bail out the market either. Our entire economy has become based on quarterly returns and speculation versus production. The market is artificially inflated by 40%, it will continue to crash as the inability of individuals and institutions to cover their debt cointinues. It's not about politics but the loss of individual ethics and responsibility. HUGE changes coming to society, put on your crash gear and strap in.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:11AM EDT

Here's something I've never understood. One of the big causes of the Great Depression was that buying could be done on very little margin (less than 10%). The huge leverage led to a huge crash. So that was made illegal. Derivatives as I understand them do pretty much the same thing. Why are they so unregulated?

madmilker
madmilker - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:11AM EDT

Will It Run Dry?.....not until "we the people" stop buying the "red" ink.

Ray
Ray - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:12AM EDT

some people can't spell 'butt'

gas to high
gas to high - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:13AM EDT

if the feds want to see more spending out of the public and to keep the country out of a recesion then put gas prices at a buck fifty a gal. and watch the spending increase hell any extra money spent is going to gas my gosh 21 dollars to fill up a lawn mower get real

ChamrongO
ChamrongO - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:14AM EDT

what about the american people working class are suffer ,because the banking system are stealing especialy the ceo,cfo, all the board member, think for them self not and employee. what all the home owner out there are sufering , no body care ,but the us goverment can bail out the biggest wall street giant bear stern , but not the owner who paid tax and getscrew all over we need to voice to american people blast in the front page and complaint if we seat around and do nothing do not complaint. i hope every body get this message.........

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:17AM EDT

Did I just see a Ron Paul for President post...good luck...for traders this time is easy, just buy up the Euro and gold and you'll arbitrage...Heck, if I had the money, I'd start up a new exchange in Europe, probably Germany, based off the Euro. Watch all the US companies begin listing on there and watch as it allows both Asia Markets and people living in the US to trade at the same time. The US is losing capital to foreign countries at a fast pace...might as well make money off of it

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:18AM EDT

Vince, you're right, but too few people are frugal today. All of the recent Fed actions are really rewarding chronic spenders, not chronic savers. This was a country that once was financed by saving; now it is financed by debt underwritten by foreign countries. That is an unwise choice, as America has mortgaged its future.

Dan
Dan - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:18AM EDT

If the "financial geniuses" at Bear-Stearns, CITI etal didn't realize the systemic risks they were creating when they invented CDO's, SIV's etc, what chance do us little guys have of understanding todays financial system. Even worse, when Merrill-Lynch and others are taking billions of dollars in hits, how can we small investors trust their financial advice!! The "crisis in confidence" reaches even our level.

John S
John S - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:18AM EDT

The well is only as deep as the money it prints is worth. The more you print (and release as debt) the less it's worth. So it's not a question of the well running dry it's a question of how many dollars it takes to buy a gallon of water or gasoline. When either or both is $6.00 (and middle America can afford neither) a gallon because the dollar is worth so little, then we'll see how wise or how wrong the Fed is.

dipster
dipster - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:19AM EDT

God, forgive them for they know not what they do....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:22AM EDT

Let the bums die a fast death and give all that money to the people that were taken in by sleezy investment bankers and mutual funds. At least that puts the money back in the hands of the consumer, which in turn can put it back to work or spend to pump up the economy.

David Justin
David Justin - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:23AM EDT

This is NOT a time for ideological posturing. Too often we see an analysis based on what "should be" rather than "what is." The reality is we have a liquidity crisis, a scared market, and scared consumers. None of the current crop of presidential candidates seem to want to deal with any of these issues. So Bernanke is filling the leadership vacuum. He is dealing with the realities of the situation in a most pragmatic manner. But for him, the markets would have collapsed months ago. It is time for him to contact each of the candidates and educate them so that they can have a suitable quantum of information abou the realities of the financial system.

undone
undone - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:23AM EDT

The solution is to refi as many of the subprime loans as possible. These are mostly 3/1/6 with no PMI, therefore people will ultimately pay up to 6% over there start rate, which was already 2 to 3% ubove prime borrowers. Here is the sloution which MUST be implemented NOW...time is of the essence. Set up a gov backed program...here is how it works....there will be 4 groups....A B C and D borroweres (all of which cannot qualify for anything out there)....A being the best...regular banks and brokers will do the job....each loan will be a 30 year fixed, A=8% with 0.5% as PMI going into a group insurance policy against losses in a defualt. B=8.75% with 0.5% defualt Ins, C= 9.5%, 0.5 defualt, D=10% 0.5% defualt.....all can refi anytime they qual for a better deal..these will be fixed rates.....A,B,C.D will each have guidelines, Like A...credit min 550, 12 mon current on mortgage, B...500 min, 6 month current on mortgage, etc.....base this on statistics....try to save 80% of the best performing loans out there. 603-770-8824

Harry
Harry - Tuesday March 18, 2008 10:24AM EDT

I'm curious to see how all of the executives of these FINE instituions are going to be compensated for their STELLAR ACHIEVEMENTS, while thousands of innocent workers lose their jobs, 401K's. and pensions When Mr. Greenspan was in office he kept a tight lid on money. Mr. Bernake on the other hand, cannot seem to tell the markets to start getting their house in order. Once you start giving handouts and bailing out instituions its hard to stop.

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