Thursday, December 24, 2009, 7:13PM ET - U.S. Markets closed early today.

Bailout's Bottom Line: It's a Confidence Game

Posted Sep 29, 2008 11:13am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking

For all the economic debate and political wrangling, the $700 bailout package comes down to one word: Confidence.

"This is about market confidence and the tools to do the job," Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said last week during Congressional hearings on the $700 bailout plan, which is set for a House vote this afternoon.

Paulson's point is financial institutions have lost confidence in each other -- credit spreads show banks are refusing to lend to each other, much less consumers or business - and only massive government intervention can restore it.

The acute nature of the market was on stark display Monday as financial institutions across the globe faced disaster:

  • Facing insolvency, Wachovia sold its banking operations to Citigroup, which took an immediate $42 billion loss, slashed its dividend and said it will seek to raise $10 billion in equity to offset the loss. The transaction was brokered by the FDIC, which received $12 billion of warrants in Citi in exchange for insuring the bank's losses won't exceed $42 billion.
  • The Belgium government bought 49% of Fortis, the nation's largest bank; the Netherlands and Luxembourg also participated in the deal. Fortis' near-death experience hit Hong Kong insurer Ping An, which owns a stake in the company.
  • UK regulators seized Bradford & Bingley, a big real estate financing company.
  • Hypo Real Estate, Germany's second-biggest commercial-real estate lender, received a 35 billion euro loan guarantee to prevent its insolvency.
  • Iceland bought 75% of Glitnir Bank, the nation's third-largest bank.

The risk is that the bailout effort is not instilling a sense of confidence, as reflected in steep declines for stock proxies around the world Monday. In recent trading, the Dow was down nearly 300 points.

The markets may be reacting to the dramatic language about the risks involved if no legislation used by Paulson, Fed Chairman Bernanke, President Bush and other regulators in recent weeks.

In other words, talking about a severe crisis without a bailout may be becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as the legislation continues to face Congressional obstacles -- or even if it passes.

81 Comments

"Jackson Cash"
"Jackson Cash" - Monday September 29, 2008 11:24AM EDT

Exactly right, this is a confidence game -- however confidence is fallible and that alone will undermine this entire "bull$hit bailout!" In other words it's only a step that won't work, and sets the precedent that corporate elite are a higher priority than every man woman and child --- Congress should be shamed, utterly ashamed.

pdo23@sbcglobal.net
pdo23@sbcglobal.net - Monday September 29, 2008 11:26AM EDT

bailout or not us economy will recover by 2010!!!

Scott
Scott - Monday September 29, 2008 11:26AM EDT

this is all BS, im tired of it

Doug C
Doug C - Monday September 29, 2008 11:29AM EDT

Imagine this, the country's smartest CEO's have run the country's largest Banks into the ground and get this, our Senate and Congress are going to straighten this out? Ummm ... did anyone forget our country is more bankrupt then the companies we are taking over? Your senators forgot who they work for, many simply do not care,, the American public is against the plan but they are moving forward anyway. Simply do not vote for them next election and never forget. You can also let them know your displeasure at www.senate.gov and click on Senators, then your state.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday September 29, 2008 11:30AM EDT

Why doesn't the government buy a few troubled regional banks and make the (good) loans that are needed. This will force other banks to either compete or fold. It should add liquidity to main st and will cost a lot less than 700B.

Prudent Man
Prudent Man - Monday September 29, 2008 11:34AM EDT

It's a Government Capitalism con game. Good by Free Enterprise. Now that a couple of statists, led by Goldman control the financial system the next thing is industrial mergers. Let's get all of the CFR One World Government people on board. The stock market has been a "losers game" for fifteen years. Now Robert Rubin, with his Manchurian Candidate, can really manipulate the game. The investing public, including institutional investors, are suckers. Why do you think the smart guys are getting out while they can?

GeorgeK
GeorgeK - Monday September 29, 2008 11:35AM EDT

Confidence, why would we lack confidence just because housing was the problem and they have done nothing for housing. We should be happy that the Government Doctor is not treating the real problem. Think of all the friends we will make in the bread lines. I have been trying all morning to send my Congressman an e mail but the web site is frozen, seems I am not the only person that wants to voice an opinion on this. Fix housing for Main Street. Our two biggest banks in San Diego are now gone, who is even going to do the home loans that will fix this?

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday September 29, 2008 11:36AM EDT

When the over all sector of the econmy start to pick up and the stock market,and the stock go up anf the Dow Jones stay in the range of 1100 up ward to 12,800 and stay above 12,900 had been crossed by the first week January 2009 range then only then I can say we are on the bottom for sure.....Hopefully it will come out now if you are bullish still.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday September 29, 2008 11:39AM EDT

First scare the hell out of everyone in congress, then rip off the $700B.

Friedrich D
Friedrich D - Monday September 29, 2008 11:40AM EDT

Of course it is about confidence, but whom should one trust, Paulson, Bush? any of the senators. McCain or Obama have not said anything substantially also. See if one of those will be the next US president, what can you expect? I'd no trust any of them to anything of value. If you gave them 100 Dollar they will come back and ask for a few thoursands more ...

Friedrich D
Friedrich D - Monday September 29, 2008 11:40AM EDT

Of course it is about confidence, but whom should one trust, Paulson, Bush? any of the senators. McCain or Obama have not said anything substantially also. See if one of those will be the next US president, what can you expect? I'd no trust any of them to anything of value. If you gave them 100 Dollar they will come back and ask for a few thoursands more ...

GeorgeK
GeorgeK - Monday September 29, 2008 11:41AM EDT

Nothing for Housing is a failed plan. Millions of people out of their homes and more to come. Panic is just starting espically with a free media.

Rutro
Rutro - Monday September 29, 2008 11:44AM EDT

Shame on us, lets vote OUT these politicians. Every single one of them.

cat
cat - Monday September 29, 2008 11:44AM EDT

If we could only belive that there was just one company involved

Friedrich D
Friedrich D - Monday September 29, 2008 11:44AM EDT

If it's about confidence, then let me ask, why not go to anyone having take part to give as much bad credit as possible and put them in charge paying back what they've got. It's snow-ball system and I bet that is illegal in the US also...

Sharon
Sharon - Monday September 29, 2008 11:47AM EDT

So no help for the peole that are about to loose their homes but help for the rich. when are we gonna stop letting these politician that are elected to office steal money to support their families while the ones of us who are not on wall street continue to struggle. I just dont understand how Poor people just keep on supporting the rich people does that make any sense to anyone.

Wisdom
Wisdom - Monday September 29, 2008 11:48AM EDT

It's not just that the big banks lack confidence. The investing community as a whole now lacks confidence. The rules change on a daily basis, and the changes are geared to allow big players to game the system and continue to hide the crap. The changes are NOT promoting transparency, NOT promoting the very necessary controlled unwind of dead-firms-walking, and NOT providing reassurance to the true owners of wealth - taxpayers who save - in this country. Remember that the banks don't own wealth, they simply control lending based on deposits from those who do own wealth. The government is not the right method to fix the problem, and is likely to make things worse. The wealth owners are taking their money out "on strike" until the big bankers get their heads back on straight and the government gets its grubby paws off our markets.

Ellem
Ellem - Monday September 29, 2008 11:50AM EDT

Can you say "Global Recession"??? America is the keystone of global economic confidence: America is bankrupt, the rest of the world will stumble as we fall. Sad but true.

D
D - Monday September 29, 2008 11:53AM EDT

If gov't really wanted to un-freeze the credit markets, they should have changed the Feds charter to allow it to lend to individuals and businesses. then the Fed would have GOOD loans on its books. But it would also directly socialize the Banking industry

Ellem
Ellem - Monday September 29, 2008 11:53AM EDT

Can you say "Global Recession"??? America is the keystone of global economic confidence: America is bankrupt, the rest of the world will stumble as we fall. Sad but true.

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.