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The Valley's Deadly Financial Ripples

Posted Sep 29, 2008 06:38pm EDT by Sarah Lacy in Investing, Computers, Electronics, Gaming, Internet, Software and Services, Venture Capital, M and A, IPOs, Clean Tech

Watching the Nasdaq drop the most points since May 2000, it's clear Silicon Valley isn't immune from the bank meltdown on Wall Street. Even the mighty Google and Apple weren't safe: Google fell more than 11% today to under 400 for the first time in two years and Apple fell nearly 18%.

There is plenty for tech investors to worry about:

-    The financial sector could slash IT budgets, impacting enterprise players like Oralce, IBM and Hewlett-Packard. At a minimum there are fewer banks to buy up software, hardware and services thanks to the forced consolidation.

-    A worsening economy will very likely hurt every consumer play from Research in Motion to Apple to gaming companies. Already, RBC Capital Markets says 40% of people plan on spending less money on electronics in the next 90 days, the weakest outlook the bank has ever seen. That doesn't bode well for a strong Christmas season.

-    Web companies grappling with a continued deterioration in advertising spending now that the Olympic boost is over and the presidential election has just a little over a month left.

-    The impact a shut down IPO and acquisition market has on an already abysmal year for venture capital returns. Sure, the public markets don't immediately affect startups; that's the advantage of being private. But investors need a return at some point. In sectors that have been overheated in recent years like the Web or clean tech, expect second and third rounds of funding to get tighter if companies aren't showing any progress on revenues. With ad markets shut off and the general economy in turmoil, that's a lot harder to do. Entrepreneur Jason Calcanis recently said the collapsing economy would kill some 50%-80% of startups. You can argue that's just the odds to the early stage startup game, but this economy and its lack of liquidity and confidence certainly doesn't help.

We'll keep an eye on all of these ripples, as shoes continue to drop in this crisis and the Valley picks its jaw up off the floor and actually starts to react. But it's important to realize so far it's a story of ripples in the Valley-a long list of potentially deadly ripples to be sure-but ripples nonetheless. For people who've been in the Valley more than ten years, there's none of the hand-wringing of the last bust when more than 450,000 Valley workers lost their jobs in a little more than a year and the Nasdaq lost three-quarters of its value in just a few years.

38 Comments

LOWELL
LOWELL - Tuesday September 30, 2008 06:56AM EDT

the one thing that can bring us out of this mess in the long run is to start the process of makeing energy on par with what president JFK did with the space program. NUMBER 3 FOR YOU MR. SILVER SERFER. Easy, give the 700 billion, if fact up it to one trillion, directly to the tax payer. This would be spent by the consumer. The end result, weak banks would fail as the should, the tax payer theirself will be the ones to bail out the banking sector and economy by spending. Each Tax payer would receive aprox. $ 4,000 to $ 5,000 and thats meaning full.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 30, 2008 07:04AM EDT

The debate in house yesterday was great, and the right final vote was chosen. Too bad *most* of the media ignored the issue and focused on the political nonsense instead. I think this will be a wake up call for people who live on credit, and those who make money off 'em. It's time for capitalism to show it's darker side over the next few weeks so we can rebound.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 30, 2008 08:53AM EDT

I never ceased to be amazed by the amount of liberal astroturfing that goes on here. Education time, some simple basic facts for the morning: get on wikipedia, or your favorite search engine and look up "Consumer Reinvestment act" and "Glass-Steagall act". The enactment of the first, and the dismantling of the second are key things that led up to this mess. Instead of fixing the problems though, liberals like Bush, and the Democratic congress are pushing to throw $700B (to start) at it and fund the continuation of offering bad loans.

Karl
Karl - Tuesday September 30, 2008 09:48AM EDT

The day the house leadership showed its true colors! The result, the "Pelosi Plunge" an 8% drop in the DOW all thanks to Nancy Pelosi!

Janine
Janine - Tuesday September 30, 2008 10:13AM EDT

Nuts, unintelligent, naive. If the system goes down, all of us go down to one degree or another. So many of the posters on this site advocate letting a disease take its course while the cure sits in a bottle next to them. "Screw my body, it should have known better than to catch a disease- my body will have to fend for itself". Huh? On the other hand, there are a lot of opportunities to take positions in good, healthy firms that are getting the crap kicked out of them by the uncertainty in this market. Buy, buy, buy!

Pamela J C
Pamela J C - Tuesday September 30, 2008 10:48AM EDT

silver surfer.....the second coming. really? I appreciate your comments. I dont understand all this stuff or I would give #3.

CB
CB - Tuesday September 30, 2008 02:26PM EDT

Some of the people who are largely responsible for the mortgage debacle and its fallout can be seen in a C-Span video clip on YouTube: do a search with the following words: 2004 fannie mae democrats Funny thing-- most of them are still around and want to take power.

marys
marys - Tuesday September 30, 2008 10:56AM EDT

Most Americans deeply in debt and that includes the Federal Government are living the GREAT PRETEND that more money will always be coming in. At some point, there has to be some cushion. The financiers of our country were well aware of what they were doing, loaning to badly qualified individuals. They were just thinking someone else would be holding the bag! Now they should. Yes, it will have an impact on our economy, but we have been living in an illusory financial bubble for quite a few years now...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 30, 2008 03:05PM EDT

Man there are some real weenies on here. You know who you are. Are you going hungry? Do you have shelter? Are you in imminent threat of danger? If not, then quit your bit-chin and get on with your life. If your world lives and dies by Wall Street or the actions of Congress, you have already abdicated your free will and deserve to feel miserable. For the rest of us, the sun will still come up tomorrow morning, as it has for the last 5 billion years, I'll thank God I'm alive and look forward to living life to its fullest. And Silver Surfer - the world needs more people like you. The glass is always half full!

Dick
Dick - Tuesday September 30, 2008 11:23AM EDT

Well the markets up from yesterdays close, so maybe the sky is't falling after all and its just all media hype?

nikolaus h
nikolaus h - Tuesday September 30, 2008 04:44PM EDT

I am in Europe right now and when the same thing costs 50% more here than in the U.S., tell me which currency is overvalued? The Euro is too high. Tech stocks come at bargain prices if you ask me :) I have already stocked up on some solid companies. What's do most tech companies have to do with mortgages and banks? Nothing! So why should they be affected? They won't be. Don't tell me that people will buy fewer iPhones because they are defaulting on their mortgage - those people wouldn't have bought lots of iPhones to begin with, and a global economy kinda buffers the effect. Will the Chinese buy fewer tech goods? No. The rich are still rich, more than ever, money is going around, it's just been removed from a tanking stock marke. But once the scare is over it will all come back, minus a few investment banks and others participating in the folly that was the housing bubble. The rest will be fine, just fine.

nikolaus h
nikolaus h - Tuesday September 30, 2008 04:50PM EDT

ps: The only thing that hypes more than the media is... the stock market. Despite all sorts of frantic reporting I have yet to see why the majority of Americans is supposedly affected by the mortgage crisis. I have no debt but even if I had, I'd pay it back, kinda just like before. Does it constitute a crisis when people can't spend money they don't have? I call that common sense. Terribly inconvenient if I can't refinance my house and get 2 new SUVs out of it but I think I'll manage.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 30, 2008 06:17PM EDT

CURTAINS

Steve
Steve - Tuesday September 30, 2008 06:30PM EDT

Its funny to see all the over extended cry babies around here. When housing gets low enough I will buy a house and save the economy. I was not stupid enough to beleive the BS housing market of the last 5 years was a good investment and just worked, saved my money and waited. I ride my bike to work, have a 20 year old car (i love) and walk most places and the results I have tons of cash and am in excellent shape.

Pat
Pat - Wednesday October 01, 2008 04:44AM EDT

NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, BO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT , NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, NO BAILOUT, NO BAILOUT, NO BAILOUT!!!!!!! NO MC CAIN, NO MC CAIN, NO MC CAIN!!!!! NO DERIVATIVES???NO DERIVATIVES???NO DERIVATIVES?? NO DERIVATIVES??? NO MC MEAN!!!! NO MC MEAN!! NO MC MEAN!!!

Pat
Pat - Wednesday October 01, 2008 04:45AM EDT

NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, BO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT , NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, NO BAILOUT, VOTE THEM OUT, NO BAILOUT, NO BAILOUT, NO BAILOUT!!!!!!! NO MC CAIN, NO MC CAIN, NO MC CAIN!!!!! NO DERIVATIVES???NO DERIVATIVES???NO DERIVATIVES?? NO DERIVATIVES??? NO MC MEAN!!!! NO MC MEAN!! NO MC MEAN!!!

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday October 01, 2008 11:11AM EDT

Good time for Bad news

Justin
Justin - Wednesday October 01, 2008 05:55PM EDT

A simple solution: Enable homeowners to sell their equity. The american homeowner has two options when purchasing a new house - borrow the money from the bank or pay cash. However, when starting a business we have a third option - sell equity. As a homeowner there are few reasons to ever own 100% of your house. As long as you own at least 51% tyou would have a controlling interest, but we lack a system to enable homeowners to sell their equity to outside investors. Selling home equity would enable homeowners to cut their mortgage payments in half, reducing foreclosures and increasing buying power. Foreclosure reduction would decrease the risk in the market that has created the bad debt crippling our financial system, and the increased buying power would increase the value of the assets behind the mortgage backed securities while stopping the slide in housing prices. Residential real estate would also be an attractive investment. Investors could diversify risk by investing in neighborhoods instead of individual or commercial properties.

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