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It's 'Absolute Nirvana' for Value Investors, Whitney Tilson Says

Posted Oct 01, 2008 12:33pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Electronics, Recession, Banking

When the Value Investing Congress convenes next week in New York City, some of the world's top value investors will share their ideas for the best stocks to own -- and short.

Henry and I got a sneak preview this morning with the conference's co-founder, Whitney Tilson, managing partner of T2 Partners and Tilson Mutual Funds.

"In a cash-constrained world of chaos and panic, we are finding tremendous bargains," says Tilson, who co-edits Value Inevstor Insight, a newsletter focused on value investing.

Berkshire Hathaway is the "best way to play the credit crunch," says Tilson, whose fund owns Warren Buffett's holding company. Other long positions include beaten-down retailers like Target and Barnes & Noble, which Tilson says have the balance sheets to survive the downturn -- and buy back stock along the way.

To hedge against those positions, Tilson has been betting against financials and short companies exposed to the consumer with high P/E ratios, including Apple and Research In Motion, as discussed in the accompanying video.

105 Comments

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 01, 2008 12:48PM EDT

so funny... you can just see blodget squirming that someone would suggest that Apple still isn't a 'screaming buy'... Henry's got a stiffy for Apple and - quite frankly - i'm suprised he'd even sit down with someone who would suggest that it'll be hard for them to maintain a 30+ times P/E ratio...

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 01, 2008 12:52PM EDT

Time to buy banks!.... Wells Fargo CEO said and I quote " I feel like a kid in a candy store".... This bail out plan will increase the amount of candy gong his way....banks are underprices, because Hank will paid them amuch higher value for their junk investment then what they have on their books.... I am buying City, JPM and Goldman... I hate this bailout plan...now you see who is benefiting from all all it? Wall Street! Unless you think Wells Fargo CEO is main street..... anothe loss for tax payers... Vote for bailout = Loss of my vote next election...

empirertp
empirertp - Wednesday October 01, 2008 12:58PM EDT

Recall that the DOW was 7,500 in 2003. 7500! Why should we expect the DOW to go up in a recession with reduced or non existent GDP..Investment banks are gone; meaning less upward force and less drivers in the market. What we are seeing now is just residual trading. The stock market will follw housing, it has yet to deflate to reflect the real economy.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 01, 2008 12:58PM EDT

oH

you
Whit Chambers - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:05PM EDT

So in 1994 Obama sues Citi-bank asserting discrimination against disadvantaged individuals for not getting motgage loans. (http://clearinghouse.wustl.edu/chDocs/public/FH-IL-0011-9000.pdf) Now the knuckleheads out there think He (the blessed one) will save the day.

Johnny Ike
Johnny Ike - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:08PM EDT

AGREE WITH THE VALUS INVESTOR.....GOOD TO SELECT THE INTERNATIONAL BRAND LIKE EXXON, BP SHELL,COCA COLA ,PEPSI COLA, WALMART,TESCO..GLAXO,JOHNSON & JOHNSON.........THIS THE BEST PORTFOLIO INTERNATIOALLY. I SUPPOSE AND AGREE THE MR..BUFFET WILL AGREE....

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:09PM EDT

If you are not sure what to buy, just keep track of Mohnish Pabrai and Warren Buffet. For instance, you can keep track of Ingersoll Rand http://valuestockinvestors.blogspot.com

you
hi_there_2003 - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:09PM EDT

Value. LoL. They're trying to get their last 300 point jump up. Then it's down, down, down.

planetleo
planetleo - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:13PM EDT

Tilson looks like a worm, fitting a short selling parasite.

qqlj2006
qqlj2006 - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:13PM EDT

Great Depression is coming, don't buy into those suckers. you could get stocks with PE at 5s. just wait for them to drop.

george m
george m - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:15PM EDT

Buy as much GE as you can at $23, your grandchildren will thank you.

you
Paul L - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:17PM EDT

Hell happens when the government discourage SAVINGS and encourage spending! Only time, hell will burn you alive!!

secret_service9960
secret_service9960 - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:20PM EDT

Hmmm, like NVDA? "Other long positions include beaten-down .... have the balance sheets to survive the downturn -- and buy back stock along the way."

secret_service9960
secret_service9960 - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:20PM EDT

Hmmm, like NVDA perhaps? "Other long positions include beaten-down .... have the balance sheets to survive the downturn -- and buy back stock along the way."

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:22PM EDT

Makes me sick to hear investment advisors tell everyone to just hold while they scramble for the exits. Just look at the 1929 crash. The Dow lost so much that people still did not get their portfolios back to their starting point 20 years later.

you
JFM-Montreal - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:33PM EDT

It's true that Blodget looked very close to crying when Tilson mentionned that Apple might be overvalued. In the long run, high valuations never hold, even if your business is doing great, your stock might not follow. Still, I like watching Tech Ticker !

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:34PM EDT

Wow. You call investing in companies high P/E ratios as value investment? Please study the following: A) Purchase Cost per Share: $100 Earnings: $10 P/E Ratio: 10 Cap Rate: 10% B) Purchase Cost per Share: $90 Earnings: $10 P/E Ratio: 9 Cap Rate: 11% S&P Weighted Average P/E Ratio: 14 As you see in the simple calculations above, B) has more value since you are purchasing the same stocks with the same earnings for cheaper prices (demand & supply, as you know). You get more cash flow by purchasing B) since the cap rate is 11%. This is called value investment. And, you're saying A) has more value???

bfriesen
bfriesen - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:38PM EDT

"Now the knuckleheads out there think He (the blessed one) will save the day." First, no one has said "Obama will save the day", however the Republicans DID get us into this mess and Democrats WILL have to get us out, as always. Second, it is the Republicans who believe in "saviors" and "blessed ones", i.e. Sarah Palin.

you
omleach - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:43PM EDT

Only in the usa would we be so stupid as to give wall street a zillion bucks and a big tax break as well.We are still paying off the S&L bail out of what 20 years or so back. Its not going to matter what stocks we buy there going no where but down down down. May god help our poor kids,we are selling them into a piss poor world of debt they will never pay off.

you
pacwestllc - Wednesday October 01, 2008 01:45PM EDT

when the bounce comes in the next 24 hours...would some one out there tell me where to put my money thats going to be safe for awhile...I am not a astute invester....made all mine in realestate and let the cash pile up in the background with an investment firm...just turned 60 and want to pull the plug this year or next year....would like to protect my cash/investments.....I felt like running when the tech bubble blew and stayed in.....took all these years to recover....and now I feel the urge to run again...of course my new investment firm has the same mantra of hold and divirsify....I dont have time for another 10 year rebuild

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