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'Don't Mess with Mother Nature': Markets Send Govt. a Message

Posted Oct 02, 2008 12:52pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking

Is the market saying House passage of the bailout plan is in doubt, or the bailout won't help? Or both?

These and related questions are on traders minds Thursday as the stock market's tumble resumed and credit market's freeze deepened despite the Senate passage of the bailout bill. The bill is just the most obvious of a series of government efforts that, to date, have failed to stop the market's decline, the most recent including:

Rather than alleviating the crisis, the government has "messed with Mother Nature," which is having a huge negative affect on market psychology, says Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com, and a former trader at Galleon Group, Cramer Berkowitz and JPMorgan.

The government has effectively "suspended the free market system [but] you can't change free will," Harrison says: Stopping short selling doesn't prevent long-only investors from dumping their shares.

So what's next? Shutting down the market entirely, like the Russians did? Don't laugh. Pakistan banned short selling before the U.S. and U.K. did and the government "can do anything they want," Harrison says -- it just might not work.

103 Comments

St
St - Thursday October 02, 2008 12:54PM EDT

Oh come on guys, why is the Amero such a bad thing anyhow? I think It will be a positive thing for the USA , when you think about it, the Credit is just frozen, I mean the guys have been trying and trying to unfreeze it, but it’s just, like, stuck, and then on the other hand the world has this inflation problem as well, so it’s like frozen inflation, “water water everywhere but nigh a drop to drink” things like that, plus think about it, the Mexicans have been doing fine of late plus this whole “middle class” is overblown you should bring in the Amero and have accountability for the greedy “Real estate market” that caused all this, and then all Americans can bask in the Glory that is a new independent currency, after all, a change is as good as a holiday oh plus just personally I’m RFID chipping myself as well just to get in early, I don’t like to be late to these things plus this is something I think that can bring this “war on Terror” to a final conclusion, also I’m speaking to software developers about linking all my money to this chip so as to conveniently be able to pay for things and stuff, life will be great in the future I think we all should settle down a bit, look at the positives, (the chip the Amerio, the end of Terrorism etc.) and watch the Game if there is one this week, if there’s not a game on lets all watch reality TV. Overall don’t be angry it’s not walls streets fault and it certainly had nothing to do with the monetary system, this is all a real estate thing. It’s complex, you wouldn’t understand.

St
St - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:01PM EDT

wait a minute, why wouldn't they shut the market? many times in the past if you know your own history, there has been many Bank "holidays" and stops go on individuals institutions all the time. so why would shutting the market be laughable. it's pretty stupid to think that closing the market is a "big thing" when you have just seen the “Government” try to take over your financial institutions with nearly no checks or balances. yeah, if that market closed that would be amazing! Crazy!

Abdurahmon
Abdurahmon - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:05PM EDT

I have already discussed on my blog that the bailout is not gonna help. The bailout is the treatment of the crisis but not the treatment of the root cause. The main problem behind this crisis is still there on the level of average american family. ibtalk.blogspot.com

david j
david j - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:09PM EDT

Because people like me who only earn 16,000 a year and 3 children that i support and I do not live outside my means I have no credit cards or loans if i cant pay cash for it then i do not need it this rescue plan slash bail out is pure and straight nothing but strong arm robbery by bush i am so sick of hearing everyone say well may be we need this we do not need this people that have mean income of 100,000 or more a year need this not me or my children need this because they will have the burden to pay this back let the wealthy pay for it there greed and excess created this mess vote no on bailout

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:14PM EDT

Mr Harrison's comment that the government has effectively suspended the free market system says it all. Personal abrogation of responsibility by living a life supported by unsustainable debt is exacerbated by government rewarding such risk taking. A mockery is being made of the premise of personal responsibility and a slap in the face is being given to those of us who have played by the rules. This massive changing of the rules in mid-game delivers said slap.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:14PM EDT

Short selling is the biggest fraud ever, first you don't pay your mortgage for a year and just tell the bank your trying to sell the house but no one wants it and you just stack up the $, then you tell them one of your relatives is willing to buy it as a short sale for less than 1/2 of what you owe on it, then your relative buys the house with the money you save in the year that you never made and payment and after six months he transfers the house back to your name, lol, no wonder this economy is so screw up

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:18PM EDT

It seems that our representatives are really trying scare Main Street by saying the market is in decline because the house did not pass the bill - yet the very next day the market rebounded (my thinking is because the bill was defeated). Now the Senate passes the bill and the market is in decline. Does anyone think that it's Main Street saying we don't want this bill. Don't think many people have any kind of trust in our government's judgment anymore - absolutely no common sense.

Roger P
Roger P - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:18PM EDT

They better not pass this.

Gary
Gary - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:19PM EDT

My grandfather always used to say: Dont't trade a good milk cow (700B) for a three legged mule (mortgage backed securities.

Doug C
Doug C - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:22PM EDT

The leaders of both the Republican and Democratic Parties are rushing ahead with their $700 billion bill, says Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate for president. Without a single hearing and without considering other solutions, Congress is preparing to put the typical American family on the hook for more than $8,000. Legislators in both parties need to stand up for the American people and say no, says Barr. www.lp.org

Raju
Raju - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:28PM EDT

A bailout won't solve anything. In fact its just another gamble to try to stimulate credit lending by banks who are pissing in there pants when they look at there balance sheets. The bailout is a temporary solution to a basic economic problem. Every market must be in equilibrium where buyers are willing to buy and sellers are willing to sell. Until this occurs, I wouldn't bet on this plan. The actual market correction would cost nearly $5 trillion. You have to let markets correct themselves. An alternative solution in my opinion would be to provide liquidity to the most stable banks that have the least exposure to toxic securities and give them the cash needed to lend out credit. Let the other fail, there's no room for bailouts of banks that gambled beyond there limits. Buying out bad debt from these institutions is not the solution. Let me get this straight, the government buys all this bad debt and assumes that the housing market corrects itself in the long run. It might work, or it might lead to a government bailout. This plan is a total flop, it does not address the problem. It just covers it up for a while. People often want to stop a market decline but I think its a healthy part of our economic system. Bubbles are suppose to burst and there are always going to be winners and losers like Alan Greenspan stated. Moreover, I think the blame for this situation is goes both ways. The lenders were greedy, the people who bought the homes were greedy, and now everyone seems to be pointing fingers.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:28PM EDT

When the average american cannot afford to provide for their basic needs: clothing, housing, food and utilities, it is time for a major market adjustment. The bailout will simply postpone what needs to happen.

St
St - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:29PM EDT

Aaron

Jerry
Jerry - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:31PM EDT

Reward the wealthier sector and let the middle class poor become more mired in debt.. Future generations will be strapped into paying for this.. Shame Shame on this system..our whole government is rich orientated..this is not a Party situration this is just true corruption on both sides..if you are not willing to be corrupt then you have no business running for office or the Congress of this once proud and productive County...God Bless the USA and ALL ALL ALL OF HER people..I pary this will not pass..it will only hurt the rich in the end..we poor folks know how to survive. Buzz

Raju
Raju - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:31PM EDT

A bailout won't solve anything. In fact its just another gamble to try to stimulate credit lending by banks who are pissing in there pants when they look at there balance sheets. The bailout is a temporary solution to a basic economic problem. Every market must be in equilibrium where buyers are willing to buy and sellers are willing to sell. Until this occurs, I wouldn't bet on this plan. The actual market correction would cost nearly $5 trillion. You have to let markets correct themselves. An alternative solution in my opinion would be to provide liquidity to the most stable banks that have the least exposure to toxic securities and give them the cash needed to lend out credit. Let the other fail, there's no room for bailouts of banks that gambled beyond there limits. Buying out bad debt from these institutions is not the solution. Let me get this straight, the government buys all this bad debt and assumes that the housing market corrects itself in the long run. It might work, or it might lead to a government bailout. This plan is a total flop, it does not address the problem. It just covers it up for a while. People often want to stop a market decline but I think its a healthy part of our economic system. Bubbles are suppose to burst and there are always going to be winners and losers like Alan Greenspan stated. Moreover, I think the blame for this situation is goes both ways. The lenders were greedy, the people who bought the homes were greedy, and now everyone seems to be pointing fingers.

Pat
Pat - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:33PM EDT

I've been physically sick since last night as I watched the Senate vote on this BAILOUT BILL.,they are trying to sell it as a rescue bill, A RESCUE BILL FOR WALL STREET, not for the American people. No matter how they twist the facts, it stinks just the same. Call your Congressperson and BEG them PLEASE, PLEASE DON'T APPROVE THIS BILL!!! The smart people who keep insulting the intelligence of Americans are the people who got us into this mess, and now they are LOBBYING to pass this bailout. They want to continue their irresponsible behavior at all cost. First they bankrupt the financial institutions, now the want to bankrupt our government too! Could it be that they really are not as smart as they think??? Are they in DENIAL??? Is there a PSYCOLOGIST in the house to have their head examined??More borrow and spend, to get us out of the borrow and spend habit??? They sound like a bunch of dope addicts, PLEASE ONE MORE FOR THE ROAD!! I need another shot, just one more!

Michael
Michael - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:34PM EDT

Financial philosophers like to point out the Chinese character for crisis and opportunity are the same and tell us we should look forward to volatile markets as an opportunity to enrich ourselves. So what do we say about people who create turmoil through rumor in order to capitalize on people’s fear through short selling? How does that add value to our society?

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:35PM EDT

David J, If you make 16k with three kids and you own the computer you're using now, you probably ARE living outside of your means. And if you're using one at work, perhaps you should instead focus on doing your job instead. You also are likely receiving government support of some type as well, which will likely be negatively effected if this meltdown continues, but you just haven't figured it out yet. And if your children reach that lofty level of success you're floating on, their future risks are next to nil, since they won't be paying much in taxes anyway.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:35PM EDT

Silver Surfer here... NO BAIL OUT... WE CAN FIGURE OUT THE GREAT AMERICAN PLAN TO FOLLOW AFTER OUR VICTORY... I DONT LIKE PORK GIVE ME STEAK....I am an American not a socialist.

First
First - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:35PM EDT

promise not to REELECT any of the SENATORS or CONGRESS MEMBERS who voted YES. And actually do it. VOTE THEM OUT and the message will be received.

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