Sunday, November 8, 2009, 9:16AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Back in July, when he declared his long-term portfolio was 100% in cash backed by T-bills, a lot of people said Todd Harrison was crazy -- or clueless.
But Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com, is looking pretty smart these days given the ongoing turmoil in the financial markets. Just because Warren Buffett is putting money to work doesn't mean the average investor should -- unless you can get the same favorable terms "the Oracle" has gotten from recent investments in GE and Goldman Sachs.
In addition, the dollar has been on the rise lately and hit a 13-month high vs. the euro Thursday after the European Central Bank hinted it's close to dropping its inflation-focus and cutting rates.
The dollar's strength today also suggests the bailout may not pass the House, says Harrison. While debatable, that view makes sense, considering the implications of the U.S. government maybe not spending $700 billion on a bailout plus another $1.5 billion in various unfunded tax breaks and pork projects.
Dollar strength fits into the deflationary cycle Harrison sees coming down the pike: "all roads lead to deflation," he says. Still, he's not ruling out the potential for the dollar to tumble, leading to a hyper-inflationary spiral, a scenario many fear will happen if U.S. deficit spending continues to expand.
The world is at a fork in the road and the market is struggling to figure out which route it's going to take, he says. In the meantime, Harrison is still 100% cash in his long-term portfolio, and keeping short-term trades at a minimum to boot.
Todd Harrison impresses me. He doesn't guess; he acts with a plan based on facts forming a trend.
I decided to do this a few weeks ago, got greedy and lost an additional 20% in my portfolio. Good advice. If there is bailout, then the market will just take longer to crash along with erosion of the dollar. If there is no, bailout then the crash will happen sooner.
Good point about Buffett getting the good terms on his recent deals. I would have to wonder how much longer he would have held out without the types of discounts that he received. There's more toxic sausage coming down the pike. Lots of it !!!
Different advice should be given to "traders" and "long term investors". Let's be honest, does anyone really make money (except the Wall Street crowd) with short-term trading? Uh, no! Many companies appear to be at low prices...which does not mean they cannot become REALLY low prices...but over the long pull, rational, disciplined, long term investors accumulating high quality assets at these prices, in this environment should be rewarded. The best advice I can find has consistently been from www.financialsense.com and www.summit-advisors.com
i agree we will see deflation before hyperinflation, which is inevitable. all this is is a chance to buy cheap commodities, especially silver and platinum.
CASH THE PIG HEAD AND YOU WILL GET BEACON......OKAY.....PORK BAREL IS GOOD AS CAH....OKAY
Silver Surfer here... The Markets are saying we are Winning there will be no BAIL OUT KEEP UP THE PRESURE ON YOUR CONGRESSMAN... NO BAIL OUT... Also the price of oil is cracking this is good. Below 90s a barrel there is support down around $60 a barrel more like it should which is probably $30 a barrel. The BAIL OUT WILL ONLY RAISE INTEREST RATES and cause more forclosures many more and cause the price of gas to rise. VOTE NO BAIL OUT...we can come up with a better plan in the next few weeks. Chicken little get to the back of the bus and let the STRONG LEAD. NO BAIL OUT...
Has anyone heard of The FairTax movement and looked at FairTax.org? If we had such a system to finance the Federal Government there would be not need for this Bail-out. The FairTax proposal, which is sponsored by over 70 senators and congressmen, wants to eliminate ALL income taxes, payroll taxes, capital gains etc and replace it with a national sales tax plus a Prepate so thqt low income citizens are protected. Thus we would be taxed on expenditure not income. Expenditure is teh real measure of wealth.
Since America has less and less to sell to the world ( trade deficits, lack of technical education and excessive spending by free-loaders via loans)), American politician is now selling American people and increasing their liabilities for decades to come. Every politician supporting the bailout should be removed from office.
NOT AT ALL CASH IS A KING ......WRONG....PORK BARREL IS A CASH BETTER THAN KING.....
I guess you could buy some Bershire class B stock if you think he made such a great deal
Silver Surfer here.. I am in cash... in CASH since 911 because they might Nuke us. What would the Markets do then... cash may help but be prepared for the worse. No sense being scared when you need to figure out your next move. This economic 911 just before election isn't that telling you something.... No short selling for the outsiders but the insiders can still do it.
The longer the "Bailout" slogs along, the worse I think the truth is regarding what is out there in terms of toxic paper and high ranking people well qualified for jail. This $700bil looks more and more like a quickie bandaid that gets W and his crew time to dash.
CASH IS A KING FOR THOSE PLENTY CASH lIKE BUFFET...gOOD FOR HIM...........HOW ABOUT FOR THOSE WHO HAN NO CASH HOLDINGS ? ...............HOW ABOUT WHO ARE TAKING CAH FROM THE BARRELL THEY ARE NOT KI NG BUT EMPEROR......
Will there be a October2, 2009?
Silver Surfer in... Not sure about new tax system but current system stinks. When 100 plus Trillion dollars of Corporate Income made in our Great County goes untaxed to Foreigners something is broken big time. 10% of that 100 trillion plus pays for 10 BAIL OUT BILLS...
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Doug C - Thursday October 02, 2008 01:41PM EDT
The leaders of both the Republican and Democratic Parties are rushing ahead with their $700 billion bill, says Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate for president. Without a single hearing and without considering other solutions, Congress is preparing to put the typical American family on the hook for more than $8,000. Legislators in both parties need to stand up for the American people and say no, says Barr. www.lp.org