In the Long Run, We're All Dead

The website you site actually talks about 34 year cycles. And there have only been two. Is it a coincidence or a pattern?

Convenient to choose the top of the tech bubble as the comparison point. How about stock performance over the past 15 years? Or over the past 5 years? Also, If you are buying stock throughout (dollar cost averaging) you would be up over the past 9.

Zealll.com talks about 34 year cycles with 17-years of up followed by 17-years of flat to down. I don't know if it's a coincidence but there IS a pattern since WW2 of US stocks moving in (roughly) 17-yr cycles. 1948-1966 (up), 1966-1982 (down), 1982-1999 (up), 1999-2008 (flat/down) The more important point is that stocks can do v-poorly for long periods of time even w/in their very long uptrend and you have to have a diversified portfolio of assets to succeed. - Aaron

so let's get out of the stock market and park all of our money into bonds and fixed income.

Sorry but this story is "wildly" inaccurate. You are comparing the height of the 1999 bubble to today. Why dont you go back a mere four years more, to 1995 when the DOW was at 4,500. Now around 12,500. Thats right, 4500 to 12500. Id say thats quite a gain for 13 years(and 13 is an unlucky number!). I can guarantee you will never receive anything near those returns with Treasuries. I am not advocating US stocks at a time like this, Id prefer to let more pain come in a bit, but come on, lets be fair here.

DIVIDENDS make a Huge difference. This idea that the stock market is trading at the same values from 2,000 is thrown around during every pullback in the market & is laughable because it is never mentioned at market tops but often mentioned after major market drops. That being said--if you include Dividend payouts & re-investments---the market does average 10% Annual Returns over every 15 year period since 1932.

The title is one of my favorite quotes that my accounting professor used to say.

So here's the question then. Do you have any control over the year that you were born? You have statistically a 35 year wealth accumulation period as an adult. Look at the historical chart and do the math and you'll find that long term buy and hold 'strategy' that is sold to the retail public on a daily basis is a gamble........

I think it's smart to give such cautious advise. I believe the way to make money in the stock market is to read and research and get thousands of different opinions (because it's mostly speculation) before making your moves. The tiny factor that distinguishes stock winners from losers is the winner's ability to gather information without getting chained down by the false beliefs and absolute doctrines that govern loser's behaviors. There is always someone smarter than you--but not even they are right all of the time. Facts are always changing. Be flexible and, like these men said, diversify your investments (and watch them like a hawk).

LOL, Two times does not indicate a pattern.

Don't forget Waren Buffett, what did he do!?!?!!

Would you rather own hard assets or paper? You must choose between being an "owner" and a "loaner" . . . and stocks represent ownership, unlike Treasuries.

The writer is obviously not a statistician. Otherwise, he would have proposed a hypothesis regarding trends, comparisons, etc. And he would have gone down in flames. Just another "expert" opinion. Fun for casual entertainment (ala Cramer, et.al.), but not for monetary purposes.

Seriously if Microsoft buys Yahoo will the video feeds work better or not?

tell me why do I care what henry blodgett thinks? wasn't he the guy that caused a lot of the tech bubble?

Last i heard WB said,"when everyone else is scared,Buy heavily. " Sounds like good advise to me.You can only invest when you got the money !

Forming opinion by starting with the result and working backwards through the data never provides is never accurate or realistic. Typical to conspiracy theorists as well. Why not pick 10 year peiords, or start with 1979, 1988, 1990, or any other 17 year period that does not include the "dot com" bubble or 9/11/2001? This article is bogus and should be given little attention (if any).

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/12/100_year_bull_b.html This is a great long term DJA chart. There are some wild swings inside the cycles but if history repeats itself the buy and hold attitude will be a losing proposition for the next decade or so.

The bottom line is this, with the 35 year wealth building time as an adult, you have to spend less then you earn All the time. Life WILL throw you curveballs in life and you HAVE to deal with them. The stock market will always go into cycles with bear & Bull markets. Just diversify and you will be fine. Besides, if God Forbid something massive comes along like a nuke by a terror cell in DC or NY, we as a nation will have far more important to worry about then a crash on wall street. We cant do anything about the hypothetical disaster listed above, so live your life, be responsible. Whe you buy your home pay it off and dont take out lines of credit or other home loans. Build a diversified portfolio and live debt-free i.e Dave Ramesy type and you will be fine over the long haul. And yes we will all kick that bucket for the ultimate feild goal and it wont matter anyway!

Once a civilization begins its decline, there has never been an instance of that decline reversing. Gathering beautiful shells on the beach will not stop the tsunami. I'll stick with the thoroughbreds. Horses, not blue chips. At least there's some exictement and possibilitiy in the two minutes it takes to lose your money at the track. You don't have to listen to a bunch of boring, sanctimonius crooks and knaves on CNBC telling you, "Tut, tut, my boy, stocks are cheap now." Yes, and getting cheaper every day.