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Stocks Cut Losses: Is It a Near-Term Bottom?

Posted Oct 06, 2008 06:33pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking

A potentially devastating stock market decline morphed into a mere run-of-the-mill setback Monday.

After trading as low as 9,525 intraday and on track for its worst-ever point decline, the Dow clawed back to close down a relatively tame 3.6% at 9,955.50, albeit its first close below 10,000 since 2004. Following a similar path, the S&P ended down 3.9% while the Nasdaq lost 4.3%.

U.S. stocks tumbled as the credit market freeze deepened and waterfall declines hit stock proxies across the globe. The benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index tumbling 7.5% as Russia and Brazil halted trading. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index had its steepest decline since 1987, Bloomberg reports.

While the reasons for the early decline seem clear, the catalysts cited for the Dow's mid-afternoon rebound vary and include:

In addition and in conjunction with the above, there were a lot of traders eager to "buy the dip" this morning, as discussed here. Henry Blodget thinks Monday may have marked an intermediate-term low for the stock market, and he may be right. But the absence of true fear indicated by the persistent "buy the dip" mentality suggests a true bottom is yet to come.

Whatever you believe, what's clear is this market remains dangerous, highly volatile and liable to do just about anything. (To that point: After the close, Bank of America reported third-quarter profits of 15 cents, down 68% vs. a year ago and well below the consensus estimate of 62 cents. The bank said it will slash its dividend by 50% and plans to raise $10 billion via a common stock offering.)

174 Comments

Mac
Mac - Monday October 06, 2008 07:57PM EDT

The government can go a long way to restarting the economy by entering into a handfull of quasi-government/private projects that would employ tens of thousands at good wages in certain strategic areas. Of course, it means bull dozers and clearcut lands, etc, but if a time ever called for ignoring the environmental lobby, this is it. Think adding 2 refineries, offshore drilling, nuclear power and T.Boones windmills. Also, Jetblue wants to buy oil-sands fuel from GE built and owned plants,($50 barrel) but the government will not yet subsidize it. You could start alot of economic fires in a great country like America with $700 billion. So let's do it. Bailout Round Two. "Let's light this Candle" All these things will actually end up self financing and great for our economy. What we need is Leadership!

Patrick
Patrick - Monday October 06, 2008 07:58PM EDT

What a great time to buy if you have cash on the sidelines. Time to Load up while all of the suckers start freaking out and selling. Dont blink now if you have taken this Financial Beat-down the market has given out the past 12 months! War: the Dow hitting 14000 within 3 years. Go Saints!

jeffrey
jeffrey - Monday October 06, 2008 08:00PM EDT

The Wall Street pundits and experts have been saying its the bottom for more than a year - when it was 14,000, 13,000, 12,000, 11,000..they just want you to buy so they make their commissions and bonuses and fees. Each time they say it -like today - its like Herbert Hoover saying "Prosperity is Just Around the Corner" in 1931. Every afternoon at 330 pm the programmed trading boosts up the market at an acceleration pace until the close. Remember, it dropped 70 points just in the last minute or two at 4pm....Europe is tanking and there is no bottom there, no bailout plan, no Paulson who has to cover his big mistake in letting Lehman go bankrupt. To those fools who think its time to buy stocks - watch out for your Margin Calls.

Jeffrey s
Jeffrey s - Monday October 06, 2008 08:01PM EDT

Say what you want but I''ve had it. I'm 70 years old and can't take the emotional roller coaster. It may be panic and it may be stupid, but I'm gonna live out the rest of my life with CD's and Bonds. It hurts to lose this much money and have no way to make it back up......and I was only 32% in the market. Oh well - dat be life!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 06, 2008 08:01PM EDT

"Jim Kramer is an idiot" second that. He's giving advises is like Sarah Palin talking about foreign policies.

gorgonblood
gorgonblood - Monday October 06, 2008 08:07PM EDT

Aren't all you idiots who called for a bailout happy now? oops - you're wrong again. Bailout is a waste of money and solves nothing - just like I said. All you whiners got the socialism you wanted and you're still underwater....who are you going to blame next? If you listen to Jim Cramer, you deserve to lose everything. You are clearly a complete imbecile....as he is. Go ahead and try to catch falling knives. I'll watch you bleed.

gorgonblood
gorgonblood - Monday October 06, 2008 08:08PM EDT

Aren't all you idiots who called for a bailout happy now? oops - you're wrong again. Bailout is a waste of money and solves nothing - just like I said. All you whiners got the socialism you wanted and you're still underwater....who are you going to blame next? If you listen to Jim Cramer, you deserve to lose everything. You are clearly a complete imbecile....as he is. Go ahead and try to catch falling knives. I'll watch you bleed.

David L
David L - Monday October 06, 2008 08:11PM EDT

Obviously the anser is no. Johnny cash is singging the ring of fire. And as long as the stock market dives no good news in sight. You figure with the world economy someone could installed fail safes, but greed broke the house.

Fitz919
Fitz919 - Monday October 06, 2008 08:12PM EDT

I didn't hear about Cramer's comments until I read this article. He's clearly the kind of fool that starts a panic. He's yelling fire, fire, fire in a theater. He should simply be unplugged. In the last week 5 banks overseas failed. Banks and Governments in various countries are working on solutions. In probably 2 weeks time they'll start holding those "reverse auctions" (that's my time estimate), that will be the catalyst for forward thinking investors to begin going long in the financial sector in a big way. Don't be late to that party. When the market was tanking today, I was taking an hour and a half nap. When I awoke, the market was rallying. Overnight in Asia I counted 11 markets all down in the 2-10% range, in Europe 11 markets all down 3-8.5%. I expected the Dow to fall about 7% before rallying, and I was about right. Cramer is probably responsible for making the fall a little worse. If congress had voted on, and passed the 3 page bill 2 weeks ago, we'd already be in rally mode. But it took congress two weeks to assemble 448 additional pages of guaranteed veto proof pork, before they'd pass it. Congress didn't care that it caused Lehmann Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia, to fall apart, while they played pork-barrel politics with all our money.

Dr. Dent
Dr. Dent - Monday October 06, 2008 08:17PM EDT

For whatever it's worth (probably less than $0.02 but ... ) I think a lot of folks who truly do understand what happened with this bailout fiasco are simply getting out because they know it won't work. In fact, it is probably the single worst thing Bush, Congress, etc. could have done. As I've posted here before, there is good reason to believe that no matter how much money the Feds/Treasury throws at the banks they'll just sit on it. Oh, and those tax cut "sweeteners"? How about those? You may be a bit surprised that they'll go to ... (drum roll) ... Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, and others. Some of the most profitable companies in the country. So lets add this up shall we? First and foremost, the housing bubble is only roughly 50% deflated. There's still some $3 trillion to $4 trillion in bubble wealth that hasn't vanished yet. (Read that as, $4 trillion consumers thought they had but are going to find out they don't and so can't spend.) Enter the Bailout(tm). On top of the housing bubble woes, on average every man, woman, and child in the US just forked over $2300 each to a bunch of banks who will sit on it. On top of _this_ Federal revenue was reduced by $185 Billion in order to help out Microsoft, et. al. which, of course, the average taxpayer will _also_ pay for. And somehow, magically, this is supposed to spur the economy? To encourage consumers to, well, consume? You tell me. Does this sound like a recipe for letting the economic good times roll? Heck no! I'd be bailing out of stocks too!

ANDY P
ANDY P - Monday October 06, 2008 08:20PM EDT

i wish i only lost 8000 this year. i lost 43000. on 1 trade this year,

john
john - Monday October 06, 2008 08:21PM EDT

Bill: VLO is a buy right now. So is TSO. I bought some more of each today - wish I could have bought more.

bobb
bobb - Monday October 06, 2008 08:22PM EDT

You have to do HOMEWORK. Any time Kramer or Fast money give advice, it tends to be tooo Late. They are speculating hacks for lazy people.\ Thus why money is lost following their advice.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 06, 2008 08:28PM EDT

Hey ppl, have a bit more confidence in the diligence n ingenuity of the American ppl. As long as we continue to give our best at work, the economy will recover....in time. Today's dip was definitely "herd" mentality. The market will correct itself (upwards) after the "faint-hearted" leave. Like someone suggested, "Buy low, sell high." There's $ to b made here if you have time on your hands.

JohnM
JohnM - Monday October 06, 2008 08:30PM EDT

I Lost 17 k

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 06, 2008 08:30PM EDT

Towards the end MASSIVE selling came in and the Dow instead of reaching 10300, ended below 10K. Means nobody is confident to hold anything overnight. ----------Can there be a 1000 point rally from here - sure. But that would be opportune point to get out - partially at least - if you have been caught unawares in last 3 weeks. ---------- The PURE FRAUD ( in housing credit ) based growth that was achieved here and then elsewhere is not going to happen again. When market came down to 12000, it was as part of REEVALUATING FORWARD GROWTH. I think, the market is going to REVISE DOWN this REEVALUATED GROWTH projection again - here and everywhere.

Gary
Gary - Monday October 06, 2008 08:30PM EDT

More than a month ago, I was relentlessly shorting WM and WB and the profit was amazing that I considered it to be too good to be true. I got scared and completely got out of the market. Sometimes being scared is better than being greedy. I know the market will rebound eventually with all the stock price manipulations going on but at this time, hang on to precious cash on a CD. No trades for me for the next 3 months.

John
John - Monday October 06, 2008 08:31PM EDT

To quote Betty Davis, fasten your seatbelts because we are in for a bumpy ride. Days like this identify those who cannot afford to lose more in the short term. No choice but to sell. There is no set answer for sell or hold in this market. Fortunately I lightened up on stock last year, with 2/3 in cash. Diversifying within stocks doesn't help you in a horrible market. Keep in what you don't need for 5 years or more.

- Monday October 06, 2008 08:33PM EDT

I would rather Buy mortgage derivitaves than take Kramer's advice on ANYTHING. He should be investigated along with everyone else in this debacle....

FRED
FRED - Monday October 06, 2008 08:33PM EDT

GREED PROPELLED THIS FROM THE TOP ALL THE WAY TO THE BOTTOM I LEARNED BACK IN 99 THE MARKET IS A GAMBLE 3 YEARS AGO WENT TO STABLE FUNDS HAVE ONLY MADE 3% SO FAR THIS YEAR THE OTHER YEARS WAS 5.25% HAD TO HEAR IT FROM EVERYONE MAKING 12-20% NOW THEY'RE SICK I HEARD HOW BIG THEIR LOSSES ARE. MAKE NO MISTAKE I DO NOT GLOAT I WISH THIS MESS WAS OVER AND EVERYONE WAS DOING FINE IT DOES AFFECT EVERYONE INSTEAD OF MIRING OURSELVES BEING I TOLD YOU SO GO VOTE AND GET THOSE RESPONSIBLE OUT OF OFFICE DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN IT DOES NOT MATTER AFFILIATION AND LET'S SEE ABOUT TERM LIMITS SO THESE HOGS CANNOT AT OUR EXPENSE HAVE THEM AND THEIR CAREER POLITICAL FAMILIES FEED OFF OF US. GOD BLESS AMERICA OUR FOREFATHERS ARE TURNING OVER IN THEIR GRAVES WITH THIS CROOK IN THE WHITE HOUSE HE SHOULD BE TRIED FOR THIS CRIMINAL NEGLECT EVEN AFTER HE IS OUT OF OFFICE.

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