Friday, November 21, 2008, 10:46PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Despite scary headlines about the Dow being under 10,000, many traders believe Monday's low just above 9,500 represented at least a tradable bottom for stocks.
Jeff Matthews, general partner at Ram Partners and a well-known blogger, believes Monday may have marked a short-term bottom, but not for the reasons most widely discussed.
Many traders pointed to Monday's spike in the VIX as a sign of extreme fear that often accompanies market bottoms. But Matthews believes the VIX has been "artificially inflated" by the ban on short-selling financials. That is driving hedge funds to buy puts, which is driving up the option premiums used to calculate the index. The put/call ratio -- which measures the level of defensive put buying vs. optimistic call activity -- did not reach anywhere near the same levels of extreme fear as the VIX was purportedly showing yesterday, Matthews notes.
But the veteran money manager is encouraged by something many others are already dismissing as a failure: The government's efforts to alleviate the crisis.
Matthews believes the bailout plan passed last week will ultimately relieve stress in the credit markets, as will other actions such as the Fed's newly announced plan to buy commercial paper and other short-term debt.
However, Matthews' optimism is definitely tempered by the growing crisis in European banks as well as the reality the credit markets remain in a deep freeze even amid extraordinary government action. The credit market is the "foundation" of the financial markets and it has been "totally destroyed," Matthews says, suggesting any stock-market bounce will be fleeting if that isn't resolved very quickly.
It will work for sure...It will create Jobs,it will relieve people burden to pay their debts more easy especially those individual will debts....It will create additonal capital to finance the business cost which in turn creat Jobs and most all it give strong moral to the company in trouble.
Jeff Matthews is absolutely correct in his summation of the present market condition. This is the way it is. It's going to take a few weeks for all of this action to settle in. In the meantime,volatility is the name of the game. Easy does it. The European and Asian markets must repair their damage,or our markets will be severely affected, in spite of our country's Fed action. Jim
Both Parties in Congress refuse to address the underlying causes and correct them. Throwing more borrowed money at the problems they have created is no substitution for accountability and does not create confidence. This is a crisis of confidence.
And how does he propose to resolve that very quickly?
We the people need to take our country back and also acknowledge are role in the fincanical mess we are in. Collectively we have spent more than we have earned. The rich and powerful have taken advantage of our apathy and ignormance and stupidity. Trillions in wealth have gone to a fraction of the upper 1% while trillions have been added to the national debt. Time to stop the nonsense of CEOs and hedge func managers making hundreds of millions of year. Time to stop the stop the ultra rich from paying less percentage in taxes than most taxpayers. Time to stop listening to the rich and powerful telling us that the poor are the issue. The bottom half of households pay only 3% of the total income taxes. They pay little to nothing because they have little to nothing - except debt. Time to get the ultra wealthy fraction of 1% to start paying back the trillions in wealth they accumulated over the last few years while asking all of us to pay off the trilions in debt added to the national debt. Allow 1 million in total earnings (income + capital gains) plus any other compensation to stay at the current tax rate. Add 1% marginal rate to all earnings over 1 million for each million up to a 100% tax rate. Let no individual net more than 20 million in a single year until the national debt is paid off. Let's take the country back from the rich and powerful that have 100x, 1000x, 10000x or more than the average person in this country. Your hard work has made them rich. You have either worked for them or bought their products. They have been compensated for their efforts because they are fabulously rich. I am sure they will find a way to make ends meet with the 10s or 100s of millions or billions they already have with only being able to add 20 million more in net worth each year. I am fed up paying close to 30% of my income in federal taxes each year watching the fabulously wealthy paying a lower tax rate than I do while listening them complain about how they are getting soaked. The 99.9% of us need to take this country back. Stop listening to the ultra rich like the boss of Lehman Brothers trying to justify his almost 500 million in compenstation while he drove a company into the ground and now the goverment is asking us to bail them out. The rich and powerful are very lucky that if we only ask to them to help get us out of this financial mess with future earnings rather than going back and getting them to return all the money they have taken from us in prior years. We need to take this country back from the ultra wealthy and powerful. We need regulation that prevents lending money that shouldn't be lent so we don't end up every again with S&L bail outs or sub-prime mortgage meltdowns.
Can someone please explain VIX in more detail than the link shows and how or what it means for the average worker? Thank you.
It is not bail -out .....It is rescue operation.......
No mor if and but....unity and action is what needed in time of trouble......Wake up America.....
The bail does not get at the root cause. The massive amount of non traditional mortgages out there given to everyone. The defaults will continue and the housing market will sink deeper. Until the root cause is fixed there is no bottom insight! $ 80billion in bad loans almost took AIG out. According to Fitch The negative am loans don't start the resets until the end of 2009 with $47 billion on tap that year alone. With a average payment increase of 63% and loans that will be at 110% of original home value before the melt down, we will see almost 100% default. 2010 will see $ 67 billion and 2011 $50 billion. Three years that will represent double what hit AIG. And that is only on one specific type of loan.
while we can sit here and blame wall street all we want, it still doesn't address the fact that if you audited many of these foreclosures, you would find that the "stated" part of the loan was fraudulent. Until we decide that not all are "poor" homeowners that are losing their homes and tackle the fact that if they lied on the loan application, there should be NO ASSISTANCE and NO TAX RELIEF (on forgiveness of debt). I agree that wall street and banks gave many the bullets to shoot themselves, but no one forced borrowers to lock, load and fire.....
Obviously Matthews is an incompetent fool! Jobs? Did the bailout even mention jobs?? Matthews' "speculative wisdom" will die with him. Do the rest of us a favor and shut the hell up unless you are coming to bail ME out.
Last week 850 Billon spent on the bailout. Today 1.4 trillon or 1,400 billion being spent on buying short term debt. What a joke and not even a b.s. vote through congress this time. Either the american people are really stupid just like the RAIN MAN who has NO CONCEPT OF MONEY or they are really smart and just getting out of the market which explains all these drops in the market.
Whatta bunch of misfits and nutcases post here - too much time on their greasy little hands as they stroke their keys? This is what you get when you combine (1) instant gratification mentality (2) poor education, particularly in economics (3) a pinko press (4) utterly shameless political actors. If you are weak-minded and basically out to lunch - you will be slaughtered. Barry O and his band of gypsys, tramps and thieves will see to that. Bon appetit!
Bottom line if a solid company that makes money and is not in debt also pays a nice fat dividend, I'm in. I'm getting oppourtunities to earn 6% from some pretty solid players. Not bad. Time for me to buy, I won't borrow money to go in but everything I have that is not living expenses is going into solid blue chip companies that have
I believe that the other central banks, specifically those in Europe, may still be "in denial" phase to some degree. BUT..if and when these people wake up to reality AND follow the actions of the Fed..then there will be a concerted worldwide "re-liquidization" of the credit markets which should, hopefully, restore a sufficient amount of confidence in the "system" as a whole. Yesterday's action smelled of capitulation..whether or not the VIX accurately potrayed same remains to be seen. Right now the "machines" (computers) are running the show..albeit any lack of fundementals. I fervently believe the S.E.C. made a critical error when they decided to eliminate the "uptick" rule last year. This, and the fact that Greenspan & Co. left rates too low for too long, promulgated the 'greed' factor for all the fast money crowd. I mean...what were they thinking? It was like 'free money' and a green light to do whatever they wanted! Is anybody really that surprised about the outcome given there circumstances?
The $700 billion bailout is borrowed from overseas. This country is broke. What happens when these people demand their money back (including the other 10 trillion dollars owing)? People can get very nasty when you don't repay.
We have too much debt simply because we subsidize debt- thank you very much Congress. Change the tax code and tax consumption- cut out deductions for debt- our debts will rapidly shrink!
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Doug C - Tuesday October 07, 2008 10:37AM EDT
This is all brought about by us, "We the People" We let our elected officials do whatever they wish, the ONLY time we pay attention is when things go wrong. Where has the outcry been? How long as a people could we go on running up Trillion Dollar Debts? We didn't care because we were living so good, on our governments borrowed money. Those days are over, forever, as our children, grandchildren and GREAT grandchildren pay back the money we borrowed. Americans need to understand, we OWE 50 Trillion Dollars. 40 Trillion or so, of that is owed to OUR Social Security Trust fund, that we allowed our Congress and Senate to borrow (steal?) from over the last 30 years. Hello? Now how do we pay it back?