Saturday, July 4, 2009, 10:15AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

No Quick Fix: Roubini Forecasts Worsening Economy, 2-Year Recession

Posted Oct 08, 2008 12:20pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession

The dramatic meltdown of the financial markets has shifted focus from the real economy, which our guest, RGE Monitor chairman Nouriel Roubini, says is where the downturn is truly being felt. The $700 billion bailout and today's global rate cuts may have helped avert a complete financial collapse, the NYU Stern School economist notes. But the recession -- which he says began in Q1 of this year  -- is deepening and will last into early 2010.

Retail and personal spending fell sharply over the summer, marking a drop in consumption for the first time since 1991 -- and the Q3 numbers are only going to be worse, says Roubini. Moreover, corporate capital spending is down, which will translate into even fewer jobs in the coming months. 

Is Roubini simply being too bearish? "I worry that it'll be worse than I expected," he says in the accompanying video, in which he predicts a slow, possibly L-shaped recovery a la Japan.

Go to Tech Ticker
224 votes|Recommend this

384 Comments

you
Joanne l - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:26PM EDT

TIME TO GO SHOPPING...BUY BUY BUY

you
Dave - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:32PM EDT

Wow even an actor cannot fix a problem ... that is why their opinions mean nothing .... California Budget gap (as a % of the total budget): 22% Gap: $22.2 billion Wikipedia: Public Domain California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger warned this week that the state might need to borrow $7 billion from the federal government, if credit markets don't ease, to pay for salaries and other operating costs. The state, which has been battered by falling home prices and foreclosures, enacted a budget that imposed cuts to the state's health insurance program for the poor and other social service programs.

you
Dave - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:34PM EDT

Roubini ... Houdini .... tomato .... toomato .... whats the difference. If he is so smart why isnt he a Fed chairman. He is nothing more than an armchair financial quarterback.

you
Steve - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:36PM EDT

If what he says is true (and thus far he has been right), 2009 is going to be a tough year. Come on 2010! I hope there is a rainbow at the end of all this mess.

sirdon2
sirdon2 - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:37PM EDT

HMMMM, time to get to the bank, I think I need to get some of MY money before it is gone.

you
Dave - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:37PM EDT

Now that the state of Florida has this the Cuban refugees will leave .... Florida Budget gap (as a % of the total budget): 19.9% Gap: $5.1 billion The Florida housing slump is one of the worst in the nation and only appears to be getting worse. The $66 billion Florida budget for the coming year is about $6 billion less than the one approved the previous year. It includes a $332 million reduction in public school spending and cuts to state hospitals, nursing homes, and various social programs.

you
louieboyclemente - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:38PM EDT

The real problem is the housing bubble and this problem has to bottom out quickly rather than gradual decrease because the job market will surely be affected if this housing bubble bottom out gradually. It it hurts, that is life but the gradual pain will create more pain. The question is what is the bottom ?

Johnny Ike
Johnny Ike - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:38PM EDT

Confidence is missing despite all package of help investor still dont trust.....Bear are taking all the money this time with no respite...That is the game....No bear no recovery................Bear has festivity........Bear demoralized so much the investor.......The Bull on run on the cave......When will the Bull come back......when the bear are sleeping in the winter..........Confidence.....Confidence.......is Missing.........

you
Dennis M - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:38PM EDT

Our economy has been a house of cards for years, now some cat has come along and kicked out one of the bottom cards and they guys that built the house are scrambling trying to keep the rest of the cards from collapsing. Now they're talking about the recession, is that to keep us from thinking about the hyper-inflation we're going to have to deal with. All this money they're putting into this to keep it afloat has to be printed, the Fed and Treasury don't have that kind of money. With the banks holding some $183 Trillion in derivatives, there's going to be a lot more printing going on before this is over.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:40PM EDT

Silver Surfer... We need your breakdown on this one!!!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:41PM EDT

Central banks are trying anything, and everything, to shore up confidence in the global financial system amid the current crisis but Tech Ticker is doing every thing they can to scare the crap out of people so they can buy cheap shares

you
dfasdfadf - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:44PM EDT

i like roubini but i need a transcript to understand him or i have to go back and forth and replay the video 20 times

you
Doug C - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:44PM EDT

We have nothing to complain about, after all, it is our fault we elected the people we did to run this country to the ground and run up a 50 Trillion dollar debt. Lets place blame where blame is due. The voters, just like we blame CEO's when they run their companies into the ground. Last election, was anyone complaining about a tax break? Was anyone complaining about a tax rebate check? No, is everyone aware that we have multi trillion dollar debt, totalling 50 Trillion? Yes, but we still want our taxes cut and make believe there is no debt. Well, looks like we did it, now our grandchildren, great grandchildren and great great grandchildren can pay it off. No one is losing anything in the stock market, no one is losing anything in their 401 k's because it was not there to begin with, it was all borrowed money and now that will be over and we will start over.

you
snlpatel - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:45PM EDT

What nonsence. So how DOW 7000 is going to fix the problem ? He shoud be taking about how we avoid that. Where was this guy last year when DOW was close to $15K.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:47PM EDT

Reuters Yahoo shares plunge as Wall St. cuts target prices Wednesday October 8, 11:50 am ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares in Yahoo Inc (NasdaqGS:YHOO - News) dropped as much as 9.5 percent in early trading on Wednesday after two groups of Wall Street analysts cut their price targets for the Web company's stock due to a weakening display Yahoo really knows how to pick em. Get some real financial analyst here

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 12:58PM EDT

Time to take all of YOUR money out of everything!

you
reruns61 - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:03PM EDT

IS THE TIME TO BUY GOLD WITH LITTLE MONEY WE HAVE LEFT IN OUR 401k ?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:07PM EDT

I like to see republicans in denial. Just tow the line. Speak the party line. It is still what it is. People can see it.

you
cityjimmy - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:08PM EDT

You guys trying to act like you know anything, or you interview a person who knows? If you are all so smart, why do you need to work, or work at such a volitile aspect of a job? All the doom and gloom you bring to public in your show, you think folks have not heard enough bad news already? Perhaps you feel you are giving fair warning, do you think if a person is not out of market by now they should get out today? what is your goal for all the doom words and your calm to just sit and discuss these most serious problems brought upon US average citizens by such experts as your selves, who issued counterfeit mortgages and fabricated a way to steal from hard working * saving US citizens. Perhaps finance majors who have no morals, or do not practice right and wrong, but only what can I steal from others and put into my own accounts, is that the peers in finance you failed to recognize in time to point the finger and prevent or minimize this deep hole of lost confidence and lost savings, and USA theft of the resources of the more responsible side of the citizenship, who is left holding the bag here? I can tolerate no more of it, not today.................gone............10-8-2008

you
sj s - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:15PM EDT

I like Roubini , too. Also, the reason he's not chariman of the Fed is b/c his interests are for what is right for the country, not what is right for the capitalist elites like Bernanke/Paulson/Bush. Bush was on TV the other day saying the US economy was going to be fine, in the long run... Sure, if you are in the upper class with several years of idle cash lying around, no sweat, what is a multi-year recession to an elite? Heck, an a member of the elite class, what is a couple of years of unemployment right? Of course, if you're not among the "few and chosen" the above scenario will, at the least, lower your standard of living considerably, to at worst, completely crush you if you're unemployed for more that a year.... , or at worst,

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.