Sunday, December 27, 2009, 5:35PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

No Quick Fix: Roubini Forecasts Worsening Economy, 2-Year Recession

Posted Oct 08, 2008 12:20pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession

The dramatic meltdown of the financial markets has shifted focus from the real economy, which our guest, RGE Monitor chairman Nouriel Roubini, says is where the downturn is truly being felt. The $700 billion bailout and today's global rate cuts may have helped avert a complete financial collapse, the NYU Stern School economist notes. But the recession -- which he says began in Q1 of this year  -- is deepening and will last into early 2010.

Retail and personal spending fell sharply over the summer, marking a drop in consumption for the first time since 1991 -- and the Q3 numbers are only going to be worse, says Roubini. Moreover, corporate capital spending is down, which will translate into even fewer jobs in the coming months. 

Is Roubini simply being too bearish? "I worry that it'll be worse than I expected," he says in the accompanying video, in which he predicts a slow, possibly L-shaped recovery a la Japan.

Go to Tech Ticker
224 votes|Recommend this

384 Comments

davidz
davidz - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:16PM EDT

To help people get a perspective on the markets, I would recommend reading The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Though claimed to be fiction it is an absolute blueprint for what is happening in the markets today.......sorry to be a bearer of bad tidings but identifying the problem is always the first step to a meaningful solution. In the last 1000 years almost every european country has had this problem and solved it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:18PM EDT

DOW 10,000 or 9,000 or 7,000 has nothing to do with fixing the problem. It merely measures the problem. Like a falling thermometer measures winter approaching.

ALEX
ALEX - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:19PM EDT

our nation must learn how to save $$$$$$$!!

JimH
JimH - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:25PM EDT

It's hard to see you guys with much credibility, you sit them calling the financial world in dooming terms, and yet if you are so well informed and know the ins and outs , why did all the experts not do more to prevent this house of counterfeit mortgages, and related fake paper, that is bringing down the economy like it were a house of cards? Hard to believe any of you guys today, since you were sitting in your same chairs when all the bad acting was onoing, did you miss it all , or just not report it to anyone? J. 10-8-2008

Mrwonderful
Mrwonderful - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:25PM EDT

Mama said ther'd be days like this...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:28PM EDT

TIME TO BUY A MATTRESS!

Lori
Lori - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:31PM EDT

Nouriel Roubini and Todd Harrison are the best quests you have on TechTicker. Please continue to have them on. Nouriel has been calling this absolutely correctly since the beginning. I truely wish Nouriel was running the Fed. His ideas are logical and well thought out. It's a shame the Fed only responds to panic.

- Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:33PM EDT

Hey, Houdini, crack open your history book. Japan's downturn and recovery was 13 years long. How do you see ours ending in 2010??? Can you count??? 'Tard.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:34PM EDT

Folks.Look at reality, what Roubini has been saying is right so far and his analysis of the situation is right. The feds shore up the confidence..that is what they are supposed to do.they do not give facts....Looks at the facts,market condition and do a analysis of the situation yourself.....Move things to cash and invest next year you will come up a millioner in 10 years

David
David - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:36PM EDT

There will never again be "trust" in our "fiduciary" system again. All banks with the word "Trust", or Mutual Funds with words like "Fidelity", etc, may as well start changing their names now. All that crap that so-called financial experts have told us about anything, like "the stock market will outperform other investments over time", "buy and hold", "don't be too conservative"...are all out the window with Americans from this day forward. Nobody trusts anybody, or anything, anymore, nor should they, nor will we ever again. Bankruptcies all over the place, even before this crap started, and all stock holders are suddenly holding worthless paper. Its over forever, people.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:38PM EDT

Had he (or another intelligent person unafraid of reality) been Fed chairman, this mess would not have happened. Realistic assessment, but this too shall pass, and all will be well in 2-3 years.

Keith
Keith - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:41PM EDT

Don't buy Gold right now. I sold mine today when it had gone most of the way back up from what I bought it for at its peak in August. Look at the graphs of it's recent price - then use common sense and stay away. Deflation, not inflation, is coming, and gold will deflate with everything else. Cash is King.

ricky
ricky - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:43PM EDT

if this guy knows what will happen 1 - 2 years from now. why didn't he tell us what was going to happen this year , last year - nobody knows !! this guy is a moron

Frederick
Frederick - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:46PM EDT

I see lots of hunting, fishing and camping out. I see 5,000 CEO's looking for another job like working on a farm. I see U.S. borders secured because we cannot afford future invasions. Legal and not so legal will have to get in line and wait, and wait, and wait for an opening. More nail salons and more schools and roads will not save America. More health care will not save America. I see dow 5,000 very soon.

BRUCE
BRUCE - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:47PM EDT

Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices. Warren Buffett 1997 Run sheep, leave your stocks for me to pick up for pennies on the dollar. Me Today

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:51PM EDT

Perception is reality and the only perception you two boys seem to talk about is the doomsday senario. Can't you find anything positive to talk about?? No wonder the public is hoarding cash and is going to stop all spending after listening to the only guest you like to bring on.

Lance
Lance - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:53PM EDT

Agreed fiscal solution is needed. But how about something other than the $700B from the top down? That takes too long to have a practical effect besides being untasteful to the American public. How about if government announces that it will subsidize the mortgage on a first house with a (say) 4% interest cap. This will reduce the forclosure pressure and restore spending confidence. Banks will do the admin paperwork and be entitled to claim ONE HALF of the difference between 5% and the actual contracted interest rate. That is, Uncle Sam pays have and the issuing bank swallows half. Banks who issued more subprime mortgages will swallow more losses. The max amount of government exposure should be quick to calculate. This would be fiscal stimulus from the bottom up and much more politically acceptable for most of the American public.

John J
John J - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:54PM EDT

This is why a society based on greed and self-cherishing does collapse. You had better be more friendly with your neighbor, because you might need more than cup of sugar from them.

hunterta
hunterta - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:54PM EDT

You two are so one sided!!! Give us a break - you have three or four interviews with this guy posted all at once and he is negative about everything. Always has been always will be. If you predict a downturn for years eventually you are going to be correct.

Richard
Richard - Wednesday October 08, 2008 01:55PM EDT

I think things are not that bad (knocking on wood). I mean we just have to increase liquidity in the market and we should be okay. So it all depends on our government official to increase liquidity ASAP and efficientlu Look, after all the worldwide slump, Alcoa was still able to pull 33 cents of earnings. It's better than a loss. RIMM still gave us .90 of earnings.

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.