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The Hidden Risk in Telecom Infrastructure

Posted Oct 09, 2008 01:58pm EDT by Sarah Lacy in Investing, Telecom, Recession, Banking

Still believe the myth that technology isn't subject to rocky credit markets? In this segment, Paul Kedrosky highlights a new fear for tech investors: Telecom equipment stocks. Big projects like 3G wireless roll outs in China are subsidized by debt, no matter whose balance sheet it's on. And while telecom equipment stocks are down, they've mostly just fallen with the market. Kedrosky expects more declines in the sector, and ultimately consolidation. Watch the video to see his prediction for what big telecom equipment maker doesn't make it out of this downturn.

21 Comments

Moxies
Moxies - Thursday October 09, 2008 02:30PM EDT

The Game of the Century: Team: Power elites: Pitching: John McCain Catching: Barack Obama Team: Apathetic Citizens Pitching: Ron Paul Catching: David Kucinich Scorekeeper: Diebold Teams: . . . . . 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total Power elites: 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 18 Apathetic . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Citizens:

Moxies
Moxies - Thursday October 09, 2008 02:32PM EDT

The Game of the Century: Team: Power elites: Pitching: John McCain Catching: Barack Obama Team: Apathetic Citizens Pitching: Ron Paul Catching: David Kucinich Scorekeeper: Diebold Teams: . . . . . 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total Power elites: 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 18 Apathetic . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Citizens:

Moxies
Moxies - Thursday October 09, 2008 02:36PM EDT

The Game of the Century: is on

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 02:41PM EDT

It not possile the Merger of AT&T Verizon and Vodafone reduce the cost will produce strong Balance Sheet Strong Global Income,Strong Companiy that will last for another 200 years. Mega merger or consolidation is the name of the game to survive the next century and beyond..... It is possible now to escape the global Meltdown...What do you think....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 02:46PM EDT

Why not have the consolidation of All the Titan,Vodafone ,Verizon and AT&T.....Create a company that will survive economics collapse,A real Global Company........I think it is the only way to survive for the next century and beyond..........Financial MilkDown is un-abating why not create a Global company that have strong Capital and Income.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 02:46PM EDT

The first big infrastructure projects were financed by infrastructure vendors such as Lucent and Nortel. The carriers made massive cash flow generating businesses based on that. Now the tables have turned and it will be the carriers loaning money to the infrastructure vendors to improve their networks. Folks, one thing is for sure. No one is giving up their cellphones and highspeed internet connections. Not even Paul Kodrasky (who mocked the use of wireless phones)

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 03:11PM EDT

In the end does Nortel Merge, get broken up, or just go out fo business?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 03:16PM EDT

Consolidate Corporate America to Survive in this century other America will die...

xrouchos
xrouchos - Thursday October 09, 2008 03:23PM EDT

"Why not have the consolidation of All the Titan,Vodafone ,Verizon and AT&T.....Create a company that will survive economics collapse,A real Global Company........I think it is the only way to survive for the next century and beyond..........Financial MilkDown is un-abating why not create a Global company that have strong Capital and Income." Yeah that is also referred to as the Big Brother theory...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Brother_(Nineteen_Eighty-Four)

Merredith B
Merredith B - Thursday October 09, 2008 03:30PM EDT

In terms of being subsidized by debt, are we really talking about the handset makers or is it more the infrastructure companies like DoCoMo and HuaWei? I do still remember the telecom meltdown of 2001(ish), and seem to recall that the handset makers in general did a bit better than their other equipment brethren. Is my recollection faulty, or is this just a whole new ballgame with enough miasma for everyone? Nice use of the word 'verklempt,' by the way.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 03:58PM EDT

Dow going to 10!!!

Beamer
Beamer - Thursday October 09, 2008 04:05PM EDT

"Why not have the consolidation of All the Titan,Vodafone ,Verizon and AT&T.....Create a company that will survive economics collapse,A real Global Company." Yeah it's called a monopoly! I really don't feel like paying absurd rates because of no competition, so count me out.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 04:11PM EDT

I'm with Beamer! Sorry Johnny IKE

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 04:13PM EDT

Bullshit, let me repeat bullshit. This supposed analyst doesn't have a clue. First the big telecom companies are not tied to telecom equipment companies. Completely different sector. AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, etc. will do what they always do in a downturn. Stop spending cut costs and live of the monthly payments from me, you and everyone. There are almost no large telecom equipment manufacturers left in the U.S, even those that are such as 3G, house their manufacturing in Mexico and China. All of the telecom equipment companies are always subject to downturns. They survive primarily by cutting costs and stopping their manufacturing engines until the market picks up. Most are not heavily in debt and most have significant backlogs of orders. So they will suffer, some may go out of business. It will have no effect on the larger market as these are relatively small companies in comparison to the big telcos. Frankly AT&T or Verizon at over a hundred billion each and holding assets worth probably a trillion dollars (they don't show their real estate assets on their books at market value, they show them at purchase value - some of them purchased 100 years ago) it is unlikely that they are going to be in trouble any time soon. Nothing that happens competitively ever affects the big telcos, they just wait and buy the winner. So I repeat, don't worry about the telecoms, they will do quite nicely and come back as strong as ever. Monopolies are what the free market is all about and the telcos understand monopoly management better than anyone.

memo
memo - Thursday October 09, 2008 04:14PM EDT

we must go together to solve the problem with my respect

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 04:22PM EDT

Way to go , Beamer ... Let's recap here : US federal government bailing out banks , and planning on buying back rotten banks ... Suggestions to create monopoly to solve telecom issues ... BTW , we don't have real competition in Telecom in US anyways ... not in all areas of services ... Is this the death of capitalism as we know it ? I guess we still have time to ask Hugo Chaves (Venezuela) if he does not want to run for president :-) ...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 05:19PM EDT

I said survival of Telecom for the next Century and beyond....It sounds monopoly but it is good for pension fund...........Much of the pension fund is attached to the telecom company as a souce of revenue......We need super company for the sake of pension fund ......Telephone company pay good dividends Ask most of the pension fund manager......

David L
David L - Thursday October 09, 2008 07:24PM EDT

Does the game of monopoly mean anything to anyone anymore? We are seeing the worst of the ghost of rockefeller's monopoly in real life. Obviously checks and balances doesn't cross anyone minds in the administration. So, get some administration other then McCain's to fix the problem. Besides McCain is going to lose anyway.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 09, 2008 10:38PM EDT

Suppose there’s a crash? What I mean is, I know it’s impossible for it to actually CRASH, but suppose it, like, drops to a REALLY LOW level, like zero? That’s bad, right?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:11AM EDT

I agree with the previous poster - the government does not need to be taking stakes in banks to restore confidence. Rather the banks should be required to lend out that money to ... www.tickerwatcher.com

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