Sunday, November 8, 2009, 8:50AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
While most everyone else on Wall Street is searching for a bottom or declaring the late dip has to be bought, John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, has other ideas.
"The S&P could retest its 2002 lows" around 800 before the current decline ends, Roque says. A comparable decline for the Dow would take the index as low as 7,300.
As scary as that seems, what's even scarier is we could see those levels in another day or two if the current crescendo of selling keeps up.
The fact the S&P is the most oversold since October 1974 and policymakers are pulling out all the stops and the stock market not only isn't rebounding but keeps on falling tells Roque the key to a real bottom -- concerted buying by true value investors -- either isn't happening or is being overwhelmed by forced selling from momentum and GARP ("growth at an attractive price") investors.
Roque's advice: It's not too late to sell and don't be in a rush to buy just because once high-flying stocks like Apple and Potash are down a lot and look "cheap." If and when a true bottom emerges, you won't have to buy the exact low to turn a profit.
The following disclaimers apply to the stocks mentioned in the accompanying video. Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. and/or its affiliates has:
I don''t understand why gold is not going higher. It might be a good buy right now as a hedge against inflation in the next three to six months.
If you are in this thing for the long term....I don't know of anybody who doesn't think holding or even dipping back in at these levels is a great play for us early thirty-somethings!!
Way to go Mr. President. He spoke and the country responded.....by selling even faster. People know by now that this administration has its own personal agenda and doesn't care even if the country goes bankrupt. What a grand finale to a disastrous 8 years term! Hey Kansas, are we still voting for McCain?
This guy, John Roque, seems to be able to put this mess in perspective. He is reassuring in a bizarre way.
www.bobbarr2008.com .... The taxpayers are corrupt, every election, they get bribed with tax cuts and like a herd of animals they vote for the person who promises them the most. Never mind the fact that the voters, every year, leave trillions more debt for the next generation. Now 50 Trillion worth. If that is not corrupt, what is?
Looks like Jim Cramer was right after all!
The same 'experts' that told us everything was ok jsut a few weeks ago can not be trusted. Lehman, AIG all had solid ratings. Todays brokers have never seen what we have been through and what we are about to see. Massive bailouts with non-existent money, nationalization of banks, etc. we are in some serious long term trouble. Agree with arthur - gold is good.
Damn those margin calls! I wanted to sell by my own choice.
Panic selling or not......Relax.....forget the trouble.....It will sorted out.....Let the market sorted out itself....Why bother.... Learn to relax and you will be happy......Forget Paulson,Forget Bush or Bernanke....... They are the Three Stogees They will be gone anyhow next year.......... Forget politics...Forget Stock Market....,. We will fight back next time.....Relax and learn to relax and you will be happy..Have a cup of coffee and a shot of wisky or brandy watch your T.V. and all be okay..... Is it...
It's always darkest before the dawn.
I don't understand the either it's the glass-half-full or glass-half-empty definition when the stock market is concerned... We say SELL-OFF, but that only means that someone else is BUYING just as HEAVILY doesn't it? never-the-less, seeing the Dow at levels above 8000 reminds me of the NASDAQ bubble of circa 2000, and the housing price bubble of 2006. anyone else see this? ~m
Who needs terrorists to tumble the economy, when you have all the fat cats sitting on their yachts or their glass towers or there mansions, they made their money now thats America for you ---- greed has always raised its ugly head, now it has a face: Wall Street, I'm sick and tired of bailing out people who sit on their a**es and we get to pay for it
Why this country elected Bush 8 years ago and then re-elected him 4 again? For those who elected Bush, they should pay the 700B bailout from their income tax not the rest of us. It takes just two terms to destroy the economy. Look what he did - no regulation for Wall Street, the Iraq war, the huge deficit for our next generations... I'm really questioning the outcome of this democratic system.
Yes please panic and sell take your losses. Sell low and by high.
I think you must be one of the poor moving and running with your $500 cash from this bank to another bank. You must get out first from this market, Weak One! Technical analysis proved to be nothing but pictures. It cannot predict the future. This is the greatest time in US history for small investors to make big after 5 - 10 years!
The downturn will NOT last forever. It's prudent to be cautious now, though. One factor is the fear of President Obama.
Treasury, FED, BUSH all thought the TAX REBATES would kickstart the economy......now look at the enormous mess the WORLD IS IN......FDR never was a smug as these present leaders but he just kept trying and trying.......but really never solved the thing until the supermassive government spending associated with WW2 solved it form him.....and Eisenhour kept up the spending by building the interstate system. Now look these present person of doubtful ablility and foresight are throughing away hundreds of billions on things that are already build, namely all those empty houses in the middle of nowhere.......instead they should be borrowing like crazy to build new roads, bridges, dams, tunnels, water sytems, subways, rail lines, airports, electrical grids, nuclear power systems and so forth, but the won't because they don't even have the vision. CHINA and the rest of EAST ASIA will out-scale and out-run and endrun America and all the present leadership is worried about is next year!!!!! Just look at modern Japan and think CHina with 1.5 billion.........BUSH, MCCAIN, and even OBAMA DON"T GET IT!!!!!!!!
Yeah! Jus' chill everybody cuz it'll all be cool after the depression! Don'tcha feel better already?
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Harry HPL - Friday October 10, 2008 12:21PM EDT
iss doch alles scheisse