Friday, November 21, 2008, 10:25PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Market Tumbles Again: It's Not Too Late to Sell, Technician Roque Says

Posted Oct 10, 2008 12:11pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

While most everyone else on Wall Street is searching for a bottom or declaring the late dip has to be bought, John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, has other ideas.

"The S&P could retest its 2002 lows" around 800 before the current decline ends, Roque says. A comparable decline for the Dow would take the index as low as 7,300.

As scary as that seems, what's even scarier is we could see those levels in another day or two if the current crescendo of selling keeps up.

The fact the S&P is the most oversold since October 1974 and policymakers are pulling out all the stops and the stock market not only isn't rebounding but keeps on falling tells Roque the key to a real bottom -- concerted buying by true value investors -- either isn't happening or is being overwhelmed by forced selling from momentum and GARP ("growth at an attractive price") investors.

Roque's advice: It's not too late to sell and don't be in a rush to buy just because once high-flying stocks like Apple and Potash are down a lot and look "cheap." If and when a true bottom emerges, you won't have to buy the exact low to turn a profit.

The following disclaimers apply to the stocks mentioned in the accompanying video. Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. and/or its affiliates has:

  • Managed or co-managed a public offering for Lehman Brothers and makes a over-the-counter market in the stock.
  • Received compensation for non-investment banking services from Freeport-McMoRan
  • Makes an over-the-counter market in Apple

252 Comments

Harry HPL
Harry HPL - Friday October 10, 2008 12:21PM EDT

iss doch alles scheisse

you
Arthur O - Friday October 10, 2008 12:24PM EDT

I don''t understand why gold is not going higher. It might be a good buy right now as a hedge against inflation in the next three to six months.

Weather Geek
Weather Geek - Friday October 10, 2008 12:25PM EDT

If you are in this thing for the long term....I don't know of anybody who doesn't think holding or even dipping back in at these levels is a great play for us early thirty-somethings!!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:32PM EDT

Way to go Mr. President. He spoke and the country responded.....by selling even faster. People know by now that this administration has its own personal agenda and doesn't care even if the country goes bankrupt. What a grand finale to a disastrous 8 years term! Hey Kansas, are we still voting for McCain?

you
Steve - Friday October 10, 2008 12:32PM EDT

This guy, John Roque, seems to be able to put this mess in perspective. He is reassuring in a bizarre way.

you
Doug C - Friday October 10, 2008 12:32PM EDT

www.bobbarr2008.com .... The taxpayers are corrupt, every election, they get bribed with tax cuts and like a herd of animals they vote for the person who promises them the most. Never mind the fact that the voters, every year, leave trillions more debt for the next generation. Now 50 Trillion worth. If that is not corrupt, what is?

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:34PM EDT

Looks like Jim Cramer was right after all!

you
spyder487 - Friday October 10, 2008 12:39PM EDT

The same 'experts' that told us everything was ok jsut a few weeks ago can not be trusted. Lehman, AIG all had solid ratings. Todays brokers have never seen what we have been through and what we are about to see. Massive bailouts with non-existent money, nationalization of banks, etc. we are in some serious long term trouble. Agree with arthur - gold is good.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:39PM EDT

Damn those margin calls! I wanted to sell by my own choice.

Johnny Ike
Johnny Ike - Friday October 10, 2008 12:43PM EDT

Panic selling or not......Relax.....forget the trouble.....It will sorted out.....Let the market sorted out itself....Why bother.... Learn to relax and you will be happy......Forget Paulson,Forget Bush or Bernanke....... They are the Three Stogees They will be gone anyhow next year.......... Forget politics...Forget Stock Market....,. We will fight back next time.....Relax and learn to relax and you will be happy..Have a cup of coffee and a shot of wisky or brandy watch your T.V. and all be okay..... Is it...

you
bluesbeck - Friday October 10, 2008 12:44PM EDT

poop

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:44PM EDT

It's always darkest before the dawn.

OldO
OldO - Friday October 10, 2008 12:45PM EDT

I don't understand the either it's the glass-half-full or glass-half-empty definition when the stock market is concerned... We say SELL-OFF, but that only means that someone else is BUYING just as HEAVILY doesn't it? never-the-less, seeing the Dow at levels above 8000 reminds me of the NASDAQ bubble of circa 2000, and the housing price bubble of 2006. anyone else see this? ~m

Raptor
Raptor - Friday October 10, 2008 12:46PM EDT

Who needs terrorists to tumble the economy, when you have all the fat cats sitting on their yachts or their glass towers or there mansions, they made their money now thats America for you ---- greed has always raised its ugly head, now it has a face: Wall Street, I'm sick and tired of bailing out people who sit on their a**es and we get to pay for it

you
unix_sa - Friday October 10, 2008 12:47PM EDT

Why this country elected Bush 8 years ago and then re-elected him 4 again? For those who elected Bush, they should pay the 700B bailout from their income tax not the rest of us. It takes just two terms to destroy the economy. Look what he did - no regulation for Wall Street, the Iraq war, the huge deficit for our next generations... I'm really questioning the outcome of this democratic system.

you
sierralakesrealty - Friday October 10, 2008 12:49PM EDT

Yes please panic and sell take your losses. Sell low and by high.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:50PM EDT

I think you must be one of the poor moving and running with your $500 cash from this bank to another bank. You must get out first from this market, Weak One! Technical analysis proved to be nothing but pictures. It cannot predict the future. This is the greatest time in US history for small investors to make big after 5 - 10 years!

you
Dave - Friday October 10, 2008 12:51PM EDT

The downturn will NOT last forever. It's prudent to be cautious now, though. One factor is the fear of President Obama.

northstormmen
northstormmen - Friday October 10, 2008 12:52PM EDT

Treasury, FED, BUSH all thought the TAX REBATES would kickstart the economy......now look at the enormous mess the WORLD IS IN......FDR never was a smug as these present leaders but he just kept trying and trying.......but really never solved the thing until the supermassive government spending associated with WW2 solved it form him.....and Eisenhour kept up the spending by building the interstate system. Now look these present person of doubtful ablility and foresight are throughing away hundreds of billions on things that are already build, namely all those empty houses in the middle of nowhere.......instead they should be borrowing like crazy to build new roads, bridges, dams, tunnels, water sytems, subways, rail lines, airports, electrical grids, nuclear power systems and so forth, but the won't because they don't even have the vision. CHINA and the rest of EAST ASIA will out-scale and out-run and endrun America and all the present leadership is worried about is next year!!!!! Just look at modern Japan and think CHina with 1.5 billion.........BUSH, MCCAIN, and even OBAMA DON"T GET IT!!!!!!!!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:52PM EDT

Yeah! Jus' chill everybody cuz it'll all be cool after the depression! Don'tcha feel better already?

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Dividend data provided by Hemscott Americas. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data and daily updates provided by Hemscott Americas. Fund summary, fund performance and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.