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Bailout Nation: More Govt. Control of JPMorgan, Citi, BofA Coming

Posted Oct 20, 2008 11:32am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking

Rather than resolving the crisis, the government's plan to inject capital into big banks is "merely the appetizer and soup course" in what will ultimate be a multi-course meal, says Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics.

So what does Whalen see as the main course? Greater government control, if not outright ownership, of the nation's biggest banks, including:

  • Citigroup, which Whalen says is the "riskiest" of the group because of its exposure to consumer loans.
  • Bank of America, which faces more Countrywide-related litigation and keeps more of its loans in house, meaning it has "whole loan" risk.
  • JPMorgan, which is heavily exposed to potential defaults by businesses and is what Whalen calls an "over-the-counter derivatives exchange with a bank attached."

Whalen, lauded for forecasting the banking crisis when most others were sanguine, believes the U.S. banking system is going to face $250 billion to $300 billion in additional loan losses in the coming 6 to 9 months. In anticipation of such heavy losses, banks are now diverting capital into loan loss reserves rather than seeking to make new loans.

So when policymakers and politicians say the taxpayer monies injected into the banks is going to be used to make loans, "they are lying to us," Whalen says, using the kind of candor others are afraid of or can't afford.

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75 Comments

Reedersong
Reedersong - Monday October 20, 2008 11:42AM EDT

OIL AT 50!!

Doug C
Doug C - Monday October 20, 2008 11:44AM EDT

More government control? We need someone to control the government! 10 plus trillion national debt PLUS 40 trillion our Senate and Congress borrowed from Social Security that they still have to pay back. How about something more simple? Break up the banks into smaller companies, so when one fails, it doesnt matter as much. Hmmm ... wonder why they do not do that?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 20, 2008 11:49AM EDT

Of course the eye of the Law was in the Bank in general and JP Morgan can not escape from it...THE LAW HAS AN IRON HAND ON THE BANKS .....NO MORE ABUSE AND MAGIC....NO MORE BONUS AND FAT CAT RENUMERATION.....THIS TIME THEY WILL ALL SERVER IN THE CANTEEN........I WILL EMPLOY THEM AS JANITOR MY FRIEND LIKE THE BANKERS IN THAT POSITION.....COUNTING PLATES.......

St
St - Monday October 20, 2008 11:59AM EDT

Ghostbusters Rocks , common guys this is a serious issue! help me out! what mix of two ghostbusters characters is that guy? it's annoying me! nothing against him he sounds like he knows what he's talking about and stuff but at any moment i think he's going to pull out a little box with a cable on it and put on a Grey backpack! plus the banking crisis is bad aswell!

DAD
DAD - Monday October 20, 2008 12:03PM EDT

Look at the NASDAQ Stock Comparsion page. The Short Seller have too many days to cover thier positions in my opinion. This gives the more control of the market than they should have it seems.

rhonda
rhonda - Monday October 20, 2008 12:08PM EDT

If Chris Whalen was an investment banker with Bear Sterns, and Bear Sterns failed should we be giving him credit as a Cassandra? If we look back on the BofA/CFC transaction we see many of Whalen's predictions were wrong or exaggerated.

Paul
Paul - Monday October 20, 2008 12:18PM EDT

Great analysis. You should have this guy on more.

Joebob
Joebob - Monday October 20, 2008 12:19PM EDT

Sounds like Harold Ramis (Dr. Spengler) with the intellect of Dan Akroyd (Dr. Stantz).

Joebob
Joebob - Monday October 20, 2008 12:19PM EDT

Sounds like Harold Ramis (Dr. Spengler) with the intellect of Dan Akroyd (Dr. Stantz).

Cat_in_a_bank
Cat_in_a_bank - Monday October 20, 2008 12:20PM EDT

Obviously they will not loan, if borrower does not meet the standard criterion (20%down, good credit history and reliable employment). They do loan under the standard criterion, a know people who just have got approvals. Unless some one invents new game promising quick easy money to bank’s pocket nothing fundamental will change. The standard borrower/customer disappears as jobs fly over seas, inflated companies bursts, unemployment goes up, and people are losing their retirement money. The structure is built wrong and it’s crushing. The money were purred in storage instead of engine’s tanks, so engines are stopping, and storage attendant does not see any reason to give away the money-fuel, especially when so little seams to be left in ones bottomless tanker.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 20, 2008 12:25PM EDT

I think the banks should go under.Why bail them out.Everybody was on an wild money ride with no end in sight.Dods and franks stated that all was great at Fanny and Freddy.Litle did we know.Now when al is down the drain we need to bail them out and no way for Joe the plumber to get a loan.This is realy crazy.I would like to get an bailout myself.Creditcard interest is going up faster than an hotair baloon and I can not keep up with it.So what is left.Some say don"t pay the creditcard co's maybe something to think about.

Billclinton
Billclinton - Monday October 20, 2008 12:26PM EDT

nations are going BK now, ppl. wake up!

THE KING
THE KING - Monday October 20, 2008 12:26PM EDT

The banks got themselves into this mess. The ceo profitted know the tax payers pay for it.. This is wrong let the Problem fix itself all this is doing is allowing people with lots of money make more on the crash of the market and the economy. The Gov should cut checks back to the tax payers so we can spend it to help the whole economy Vs the bank that had a ceo and 2ndary guy who profitted from this and they now are in the bahamas laughing at the whole thing we are sending the wrong messgae to the consumer..It makes our goverment look like they are blind to the real issue and thats Bad books and bad ratings on the bonds these banks are selling put these dam CEO in jail instead of bailing them out.. Better yet Have the IRS seize the assets they have and dump them back into the banks books...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday October 20, 2008 12:35PM EDT

Needless to say public trust in the fed, the treasury and government is at a low ebb. We are paying with public funds to de-leverage the banks. Unfortunately, this further leverages us all. Otherwise we will all be forced to pay for incompetency of the over leveraging by debtors. That includes insolvent derivatives and accumulative fed/government debt.

Big Daddy
Big Daddy - Monday October 20, 2008 12:46PM EDT

i can't wait until we are all the same person

Marie
Marie - Monday October 20, 2008 12:48PM EDT

Catina bank is right. The banks will lend when there is good opportunity to lend for productive purposes and with a strong liklihood for repayment. Of course they need the money to bolster the loan loss reserve. What is the point of injecting capital into a bank if it does not use the capital to make the bank stronger? MORE lending is not the only answer. I can't believe the government thinks these banks are just going to put money on the street because of a capital injection. What do they want- another set of loose/no guidelines like Fannie and Freddie? You can't sell your way out of everything. We thought the economy was robust because consumers were spending. THEY WERE USING DEBT IN ORDER TO BUY STUFF. That is not a sign of health. If anybody receives another $600.00 household stimulus check, they will reduce debt, not go to the mall. The baby boomers are the main demographic. We can't afford to take on more debt. We won't be the group to bolster consumer spending in the near future. Clean up the junk on all of the Wall Street balance sheets, focus on solvency, and let the weak ones fail. No more smoke and mirrors. Too big to fail is more likely too big to save.

Milton
Milton - Monday October 20, 2008 12:55PM EDT

Catinabank: Are you serious. The Banks have as the guys stated a most people knew taken all the govt money to shore up their reserves against un-realized potential lost. To cover their asses they have made borrowing next to impossible for very credit worthy consumers. By acting in this manner they can always use the lame excuse that they cannot find enough credit worthy borrowers. If the average home cost 280K why would I want to part with 56K in cash in an environment in which home prices are expected to drop even further?

Milton
Milton - Monday October 20, 2008 12:56PM EDT

Catinabank: Are you serious. The Banks have as the guys stated a most people knew taken all the govt money to shore up their reserves against un-realized potential lost. To cover their asses they have made borrowing next to impossible for very credit worthy consumers. By acting in this manner they can always use the lame excuse that they cannot find enough credit worthy borrowers. If the average home cost 280K why would I want to part with 56K in cash in an environment in which home prices are expected to drop even further?

Owns Obama
Owns Obama - Monday October 20, 2008 12:59PM EDT

I think calling policymakers and politicians as liars for saying that taxpayer monies would be used to make loans is misrepresenting the situation. While these direct infusions of capital will certainly not add up to immediate loans, it can and likely will lead to loans sooner than they would otherwise occur. It would be ridiculous to require these banks to directly lend out these same dollars if they are also continuing to deleverage their balance sheets. Of course, some of these firms are going to hoard this money to save themselves from the process of selling many undervalued and illiquid assets till liquidity returns. This is only part of the process to get them where they need to get before they can loan money out. Some of these nine firms including JP Morgan are already loaning money out. I am sick and tired of hearing from so many politicians and others that they need to require these firms to loan this money out. What are we trying to fix here?

william
william - Monday October 20, 2008 01:06PM EDT

DUH! Another stimulus package? I have a better idea no SS tax, Medicare tax, state tax, fed tax withehld from EARNED WAGES for everyone under 250K for hte rest of the year. This will generate cash for the real consumers.

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